How Many Team Points Do You Need To Win NCAAs?

How Many Team Points Do You Need To Win NCAAs?

Penn State's loss in the Big Ten Championships has shaken up the NCAA title picture. While the defending champions appear vulnerable, how many points are typically required to win the NCAA wrestling team championship?

Mar 6, 2017 by Christian Pyles
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After a wild conference weekend saw No. 1 Penn State fall to Ohio State at the Big Ten Championships, more of a microscope is now placed on the NCAA team race. In the aftermath of the Nittany Lions' loss, teams such as Oklahoma State, Ohio State, and others are well within striking distance and could potentially now be favored over Penn State.

Many right now are hypothesizing about what placements will be needed from individual wrestlers in order to unseat PSU, the reigning NCAA champions.

But how many points DOES it take to win NCAAs? Well the simple answer is: 0.5 more points than second place. So typically, how many points is that?

Here are the point totals for second place the last 10 years:

2016: 97.5
2015: 84
2014: 104
2013: 119.5
2012: 117.5
2011: 89.5
2010: 90
2009: 92
2008: 79
2007: 88.5
AVG: 96.15

By and large, if you're at or north of 100 points, you're in good shape to win it all. We saw some outlier-ish spikes in 2012 and 2013, but even those high numbers land the average total for second place at just 96.15 points.

As a reference point, surefire hammers Zain Retherford, Jason Nolf, and Kyle Snyder scored 28.5, 22, and 24.5 points, respectively. Two monsters can put you at 50 points in the bat of an eye.

So now, let's take a look at the fields that will be competing. I believe we are looking at a year when the total number of points required will skew around 100 points, if not lower.

The reason I feel this way is that every team has known flaws, and those are likely unchanging flaws based on the data we have at our disposal after four months of wrestling.

Oklahoma State
While the Cowboys are easily the most well-rounded and solid team, they lack the guaranteed title-contending pop of Penn State and Ohio State. Finalists and champions win team titles. If Oklahoma State doesn't punch at least two to Saturday night, it will be tough for them to win the title behind fifth- to eighth-place finishes. As great as the Cowboys looked at Big 12s, perhaps we should be viewing them as the favorite, considering they start in St. Louis with three more arrows in the quiver than anyone else.

NCAA Lineup:
125: Nick Piccininni
133: Kaid Brock
141: Dean Heil
149: Anthony Collica
157: Joe Smith
165: Chandler Rogers
174: Kyle Crutchmer
184: Nolan Boyd
197: Preston Weigel
285: Austin Schafer

Penn State
The Nittany Lions are potentially looking at only seven real point scorers. If Nick Suriano's health doesn't take a miraculous turn, PSU will probably only score meaningful points at the 149 to 285 weight classes.

NCAA Lineup:
125: Nick Suriano
141: Jimmy Gulibon
149: Zain Retherford
157: Jason Nolf
165: Vincenzo Joseph
174: Mark Hall
184: Bo Nickal
197: Matt McCutcheon
285: Nick Nevills

Ohio State
OSU's team resembles Penn State. While the Buckeyes have huge guaranteed points from a few -- Snyder, NATO -- they have major holes and non-contributing weights: 125, 157, and 165 are not likely going to make a difference. So like PSU, Ohio State is looking to seven strong weights to bring it home. The Buckeyes' sure things, in my opinion, aren't quite as safe as PSU's.

NCAA Lineup:
125: Jose Rodriguez
133: Nathan Tomasello
141: Luke Pletcher
149: Micah Jordan
174: Bo Jordan
184: Myles Martin
197: Kollin Moore
285: Kyle Snyder

Iowa
The Hawkeyes are going to be in St. Louis six strong. Losing Sam Stoll was a killer of Iowa and having four minimally contributing weights could ultimately be the death knell despite the excellence of Thomas Gilman, Cory Clark, Brandon Sorensen, Michael Kemerer, and Sammy Brooks.

NCAA Lineup:
125: Thomas Gilman
133: Cory Clark
141: Topher Carton
149: Brandon Sorensen
157: Michael Kemerer
174: Alex Meyer
184: Sammy Brooks

Virginia Tech
The Hokies are another team that may be a man short of contending for it all. Joey Dance, Solomon Chishko plus the murderers' row of 74 to 285 is certainly interesting. The 133, 141, 157, and 165 classes are unlikely to contribute, so everything will need to fall VT's way for it to enter the title contention conversation.

NCAA Lineup:
125: Joey Dance
149: Solomon Chishko
157: Sal Mastriani
174: Zach Epperly
184: Zack Zavatsky
197: Jared Haught
285: Ty Walz