With November in the books, we now have one month of footage, data and opinions to sort through for the 2018 NCAA season. The start of the season reinforced several assumptions we had coming into the year, but also gave us more than a few surprises.

Cease Overreacting Post Haste

This is a message to myself as much as anyone. Isaiah White looked dreadful, starting the year 1-3. He then went on to win a very tough CKLV. Nebraska looked lackluster heading into CKLV. Then they went on to place third and beat out very tough UNI, Michigan and Minnesota squads.

Speaking of overreacting...

No Worries About The Iowa Hawkeyes!

Maybe not the start the Iowa faithful were looking for, but I think there’s plenty of reasons to remain hopeful. While the loss of Kemerer cannot be described as anything other than a bad break for Iowa, there is plenty of hope for the other nine weights.  

Had the dual not been in jeopardy, I don’t think we’d have seen Stoll, Lee or DeSanto. Stoll is still not quite 100 percent, Lee’s fading late clearly corroborates the rumor that he was under the weather and DeSanto’s shoulder brace and lack of leg attacks suggests he wasn’t 100 percent either. Pat Lugo, who missed last week, also could be lumped in with that bunch. Lugo’s start has been very slow and somewhat concerning. That said, Pat has never been an outside-the-top-12 type of guy, and I expect by Midlands/Big Ten dual season he’ll be back as a top-eight guy.  

A younger, less mature version of myself would say there’s cause for concern here. I say, let it play out, we’ve seen every single one of Iowa’s “question marks” wrestle at a high level at D1. Iowa knows how to get guys performing. It’ll happen sooner or later. 

Sitting Guys Is The New Norm

Nobody is happy about Stevan Micic not wrestling at Cliff Keen Las Vegas, including the Wolverines. For that matter, we would love to have seen Yianni at CKLV too, but coming back from knee surgery is tough, and the Mat Town Open is a far more reasonable entry point to the year than the season's toughest non-NCAA tournament. Pragmatic decisions must be made by coaches with the end goal in mind. And for wrestling fans, that can mean we’re deprived of marquee matches. These decisions will continue to be made, and for the most part, teams are going to err on the side of caution. 

One year ago, Michigan sent Micic to CKLV under similar circumstance (Micic only had a few practices under his belt and wanted to go). Stevan went, got beat by Pletcher and brutalized by DeSanto (whom he’d later beat soundly). I credit Coach Bormet for making the long-term decision and learning from last year, although I wanted to see that Micic/Suriano match as bad as anyone. We saw Iowa sit guys last week in the name of health. They wrestled most of those guys this week, and it was pretty apparent they were still not at 100 percent.  One week earlier, who knows how rough those guys would have looked.

There was probably a time where if you were remotely able to wrestle, you took the mat. Those days are likely gone, and it’s probably for the better. I think of this as the “vegetable eating” portion of the wrestling season. It’s not your favorite, but long-term it’s probably right and will lead to a much better March.

Get Ready For Cornell

Do not be mislead by the Big Red’s 21st-place finish at CKLV. They left plenty of bullets back in Ithaca. I believe this will be the lineup before the season is done:

125 - Vito Arujau

133 - Chaz Tucker

141 - Yianni Diakomihalis (Champ)

149 - Hunter Richard

157 - Fredy Stroker

165 - Jon Jay Chavez (AA)

174 - Brandon Womack (AA)

184 - Max Dean (AA)

197 - Ben Honis

285 - Jeramy Sweany

Now, is this a trophy team? I don’t think so. But it’s a top-10 team that could potentially threaten the top five with a big weekend. A few notes, Honis had Kollin Moore on the ropes very late, please watch that match. Honis was the only guy to make Moore sweat the entire tournament. Vito at 125 is going to be a factor if he’s effective. Chaz Tucker pushed Luke Pletcher hard in the CKLV quarters. With four AA’s and someone as good as Vito in the mix, that’s a recipe for a tough tournament team.

Micky Phillippi Is For Real

It wasn’t some fortuitous draw to the CKLV finals, he didn’t catch good wrestlers on a bad day either. Micky Phillippi is the real deal. Taking out Lizak in the quarters and Pletcher in the semis is extremely notable. The fact that both wrestled back to the third-place match in a field that great shows they were on their game, but Phillippi was simply the better guy in Vegas. We loved 133 coming into this year, and Phillippi is only going to add to the depth and intrigue at this weight.

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Ohio State Needs Freshmen, Their Freshmen May Need A Year

They’re still ranked No. 2 in the land thanks to Myles Martin, Joey McKenna, Micah Jordan, Luke Pletcher and Kollin Moore’s high rankings. However, the trophy-hunting Buckeyes will have their work cut out for them with their current lineup. Production at 125, 165 and 174 could be hard to come by. If they want to hold the No. 2 spot, their big five have to produce, if not over-produce. There’s so little margin for error at the top. I like Ohio State’s young talent of Smith, Romero and potentially Heinselman, but I believe their more productive, high-point-scoring years will come during their sophomore seasons and beyond, which is what should be the case for freshmen. 

Gable And Cassar Are On A Collision Course

And you can’t convince me otherwise. I was a bit bullish after Cassar won against an unranked Kent State opponent. But for me, that moment answered some questions. He was big enough, he moved incredibly well and he was absolutely powerful.

Since that match, he dominated his teammate and two-time AA Nick Nevills, then proceeded to dominate Lehigh’s Jordan Wood. With the weight being weaker than usual, and Sam Stoll still battling back to get 100 percent, I don’t see who stands in the way of these two on Saturday night in Pittsburgh.  

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It’s Penn State’s Year, By A Lot

Apologies to Nomad, who has been screaming all summer this team race is going to be over early in the tournament. The rest of us held out hope and hypothesized about the chances of Iowa, Oklahoma State and Ohio State, but reality is sinking in. Penn State has title favorites at 157, 165 and 197, nearly locked finalists at 174 and 285 and very high-placing potential at 184. Roman Bravo-Young looks to be an All-American and Brady Berge could be a contender for the podium as well at 149. Those two freshman are likely icing, not cake. The combination of Nolf, Nickal, Cenzo, Hall, Rasheed, Lee and Cassar is going to be too many placement/bonus points to overcome.  

Think back to Oklahoma State’s 8 AAs and a champ performance in 2017. Despite an amazing year and strong showing in March, they weren’t close. I could see it playing out similarly this year at NCAAs. The Cowboys have 10 very good wrestlers, but only a few look to be contenders for Saturday night in Pittsburgh.

Iowa could have been in the mix potentially, but losing Kemerer in a year where the margin for error was already small is likely a November nail in the title-pursuit coffin. Like Oklahoma State, the Hawkeyes will need guys who are AA candidates to make deeper runs if they want to threaten Penn State.

Now, you could very reasonably say: Penn State has wrestled basically nobody this year and you would be correct! As a team, Penn State has beaten five ranked wrestlers all year. There are likely numerous individual wrestlers on other teams with more total ranked wins than the Nittany Lions. While that is true, they’re humming and the question mark at 285 is now an unquestionable exclamation point.