Hodge Talk: Late January Update
Hodge Talk: Late January Update
The unofficial Hodge Trophy rankings are updated for a third time as we get deeper into the dual meet portion of the Division I season.
Now that we're a few weeks into the heavy part of the dual meet season, it seemed like a great time to do our third update of the unofficial Hodge Trophy rankings for the 2017-18 season.
Before we go any further, here once again are the criteria for wrestling’s version of the Heisman Trophy:
- Record
- Number of pins
- Dominance
- Past credentials
- Quality of competition
- Sportsmanship/citizenship
- Heart
This one is going to look a little different from our first two installments. First of all, Seth Gross has been removed. While his move to bump up from 133lb to wrestle #1 Bryce Meredith at 141lbs was admirable and something that absolutely helped push the sport forward, it counts as a loss. It would definitely have given him a big bump had he won though.
Secondly, now that there is a large enough sample size, we have put in a few guys who aren't ranked first in their weight, and some weights have two guys listed. So, let's list those guys, arranged by weight class, with their basic stats. Forfeits are not included.
Name | Weight | School | Record | Pins | Techs | Majors |
Darian Cruz | 125 | Lehigh | 17-0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
Zain Retherford | 149 | Penn State | 18-0 | 15 | 2 | 1 |
Jason Nolf | 157 | Penn State | 17-0 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
Michael Kemerer | 157 | Iowa | 16-0 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
Vincenzo Joseph | 165 | Penn State | 12-0 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Zahid Valencia | 174 | Arizona State | 22-0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Mark Hall | 174 | Penn State | 19-0 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
Bo Nickal | 184 | Penn State | 18-0 | 11 | 1 | 4 |
Myles Martin | 184 | Ohio State | 20-0 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
Kyle Snyder | 285 | Ohio State | 6-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Those are some pretty incredible stats from our top 10. I'm going to dive a little further into each wrestler's stats in my explanation and rank them in reverse order. At the end, I am going to list my percentages for each guy to win the hallowed award.
10) Michael Kemerer, Iowa, R-Soph.
While Kemerer is certainly a long shot to win, he has been extremely dominant this year. His dominance score, which treats all matches like a dual meet and shows your average points earned, is 4.875. Also, 43.7 percent of his matches end in a pin. If he can beat Jason Nolf on Feb. 10, Kemerer will jump into the top three.
9) Myles Martin, Ohio State, Junior
Why is Martin ahead of Kemerer with fewer pins and a lower dominance score (4.7)? Simple, his 2016 NCAA title. Much like Kemerer, a win over Bo Nickal on Feb. 3 would vault Martin several spots ahead.
8) Darian Cruz, Lehigh, R-Senior
Given that 125 has pretty much emerged as the toughest weight in the country this season, Cruz will have a pretty strong case to be a finalist if he can run through that gauntlet undefeated and hit double-digit pins. However, his pin percentage (23 percent) and dominance score (4.35) are a little low right now to have him higher than eighth.
7) Vincenzo Joseph, Penn State, R-Soph.
We didn't include Cenzo or Isaiah Martinez in the first two rankings. And right now, we're not going to consider IMar until he hits 10 matches. But Cenzo has just one win by decision (10-7 over Jared Ebell of Drexel in the Scuffle quarters) and is a defending champion.
6) Mark Hall, Penn State, Sophomore
Hall is just behind his teammate Bo Nickal in terms of pins and is of course a defending NCAA champ. Hall is second in our rankings behind Zahid Valencia due to the latter's head-to-head win at the All-Star Classic, and the coaches rankings also have Valencia ahead of Hall. There is certainly an argument to be made that Hall's dominance score (5.05) and pin percentage (47.4 percent) are so superior to Valencia that they could be switched.
5) Zahid Valencia, Arizona State, R-Soph.
Valencia rounds out the group of six that are on the outside looking in to be finalists. He is bonusing at an 81.8 percent clip, and has already beaten second-, third-, sixth-, and seventh-ranked wrestlers in his weight, with a match against #4 looming at the end of the regular season.
4) Kyle Snyder, Ohio State, Senior
Kyle Snyder continues to dominate but has fewer than 10 matches. No, a second Yarygin title this weekend won't impact the Hodge, but the voters will assuredly include him among the finalists for college wrestling's most prestigious award.
3) Bo Nickal, Penn State, R-Junior
Ready for a fun stat? Despite having one-third of his matches going the distance, Nickal is still averaging just 3:25 on the mat, because all 11 of his pins have come in the first period. Let's see how his two teammates stack up to him in terms of time spent on the mat.
2) Zain Retherford, Penn State, R-Senior
Oddly enough, Retherford spends more time on the mat than Nickal, averaging out at 3:31 per match. With one more title than Nolf, as well as a superior bonus rate, absolutely no one would judge you if you voted for Retherford ahead of Nolf. Retherford and Snyder are the only wrestlers with 100 percent bonus rate.
1) Jason Nolf, Penn State, R-Junior
Very simply, I'm using style points (subjective) and time spent on the mat (objective) as the tiebreaker between Nolf and Zain. The PSU 157-pounder is only the mat 3:19 per match, a mind-boggling stat. Even with the tight match to Alec Pantaleo, it's pretty clear Nolf and Zain are the top two candidates by a good margin.
As I stated above the rankings, I wanted to list my personal percentage of likelihood that each guy wins. To close out, remember that I do not have a Hodge vote myself.
Likelihood To Win Hodge
Nolf: 30%
Zain: 29%
Nickal: 19%
Snyder: 10%
Valencia: 2%
Hall: 2%
Joseph: 2%
Cruz: 2%
Martin: 2%
Kemerer: 2%
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