2017 Midlands

Arizona State Will Beat Iowa At Midlands, And Here's Why

Arizona State Will Beat Iowa At Midlands, And Here's Why

Why Arizona State will keep Iowa from winning the 55th annual Ken Kraft Midlands Championships on Dec. 29-30 in Evanston, IL.

Dec 21, 2017 by Wrestling Nomad
Arizona State Will Beat Iowa At Midlands, And Here's Why

The New York Yankees have won 27 World Series titles, and you can draw comparisons between the Yankees in baseball and the Iowa Hawkeyes in wrestling.

Both are national brands, with beloved fans and passionate detractors. The reason I bring up the 27 titles is that Iowa currently sits at 26 Midlands titles. But here's the thing: the Hawkeyes are not winning No. 27 at this year's tournament, which runs from Dec. 29-30 at the Sears Centre Arena in Hoffman Estates, IL.

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Standing in their way is an Arizona State program on the rise, with a No. 1-ranked wrestler in Zahid Valencia. Currently, the Sun Devils are ranked ninth as a team, projecting just two points behind No. 8 Iowa at NCAAs based off our current rankings.

But the national tournament and Midlands are two different animals, with drastically different fields. Based on preliminary entries, here is a very rough breakdown of placement points (without bonus). The highest-ranked wrestler in the field gets first-place points, the second highest gets second, etc.

Arizona St

Points


Iowa

Points

125

12.5


125

1

133

1


133

1

141

1


141

1

149

10


149

20

157

16


157

20

165

10


165

13.5

174

20


174

1

184

1


184

1

197

2


197

16

285

20


285

16

Total

92.5


Total

90.5

Now we need to dig a little deeper. Anyone who was assigned one point was not ranked, which is of course a problem because most weights don't have eight ranked guys. 

But even looking at it from a weight-by-weight perspective on paper, ASU will outscore the Hawkeyes at 125, 133, 141, 174, and 285. Additionally at 165, Arizona State's Anthony Valencia pinned Iowa's Alex Marinelli in the third-place match at Midlands last year, so it is reasonable to project that Valencia will outplace him again. And at 157, the difference between the Sun Devils' Josh Shields and the Hawkeyes' Michael Kemerer won't be much if rankings hold and Kemdawg wins, though the same holds true for Iowa with Sam Stoll at 285.

So besides the typical factors every tournament comes down to (bracket placement and bonus points), this could be a race to see who scores more at 149 and 184 pounds.

Additionally, the scoring structure changed this year. Before, you could pick any 10 attached wrestlers, regardless of weight class, to score for your team. This year, however, it is the highest-scoring attached wrestler per weight class. This favors a more balanced Arizona State team instead of Iowa, which has weights that contain multiple wrestlers who could place.

Now of course it is never wise to speak in absolutes. Upsets happen, as well as injuries, and unforeseen bonus points. But if you're laying odds in Vegas, take the money line on the Sun Devils winning the tournament.