By now many of you have read our article about the orchestrated corruption at the 2016 Olympic Rio Games.
An article of that magnitude left a lot of pertinent and relevant information and data on the proverbial cutting room floor. There are some incredible statistics that show how it is almost numerically impossible that these officiating arrangements were done properly by UWW's Chief Referee, Antonio SIlvestri.
1) 5 for 5. What are the odds that Azeri's Sharifov and Gazyumov would have the exact same crews for their quarterfinals?If we assume the three refs are selected from a pool of 36, and that the two jurors are selected from a pool of 12, then there are 7,140 different combos of refs and 66 difference combos of juries. The chances of seeing any one team of five refs is (1/7140)*(1/66) = 0.00021% or about two times every million matches. So the odds of any two matches having the exact same five-man team is significantly less than one in a million.
2) Given the pool of chairs, what are the chances Sernek [#27] would be Sadulaev's chairman three times?Eighteen different officials worked as chairpersons at Rio, but only 12 did so more than five times. The odds of any one official working as chairperson for any three matches is (1/12)^3 or 0.06%, or a little more than once in 2,000 matches.
3) Given the pool of jurors, how likely was it that Mochaffaa [#10] would be on Chakvetadze's jury four times in a row?Only 12 officials served as jurors. To see the same ref in any four matches would be (1/12)^4 or 0.005% or a little less than once every 20,000 matches.
Heavy Involvement Of Implicated OfficialsIn men's freestyle, 45 matches involved Russia, Azerbaijan, or Uzbekistan. An implicated official was on the mat for 44 of those 45 matches. Thirty-two of the 45 matches had at least two implicated officials and 15 of the 45 had three or more implicated officials.
For Greco Roman, 41 of the 42 matches with Russia, Azerbaijan, or Uzbekistan had an implicated official. Twenty-seven of the 42 had two or more implicated officials. Seventeen of 42 had three or more implicated officials.
In a pool with 50 referees, every single one of these statistics stands out as clear manipulation of the refereeing body.
Thanks to Andrew Spey for his contributions on the statistical front.
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