Can someone pull off the biggest upset of the year? Will Mesenbrink cement himself as the 2026 Hodge frontrunner? Who will get their revenge and who will show that they truly are the superior wrestler? Despite a bracket with a huge favorite, 165 will still be a weight with a lot of questions answered in Cleveland!

2026 NCAA Division 1 Rankings - 165 lbs

Interactive Brackets on FloWrestling

The Favorite

• Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State

165 is as much a “next topic” weight as any of them this - meaning that Mitchell Mesenbrink is a huge favorite. According to the gambling website DrafKings, the Nittany Lion is a -500 favorite to win. Mesenbrink is coming into this tournament with a 22-0, 100% bonus rate, and a good chance at winning the Dan Hodge Trophy Award. 

While Mesenbrink has never wrestled Joey Blaze in freestyle or folkstyle, he’s 8-0 against Caliendo in his college career, and 1-0 against LaDarion Lockett in his freestyle career (13-3 at the 2025 Olympic Trials). Mesenbrink has only lost one time in his college career - the 2024 NCAA finals to David Carr. It would be the upset of the tournament if Mesenbrink lost in Cleveland.

The Contenders

• Joey Blaze, Purdue
• Mikey Caliendo, Iowa
• LaDarion Lockett, Oklahoma State
• Nicco Ruiz, Arizona State

Joey Blaze, Purdue

• Wins: Mikey Caliendo, Nicco Ruiz, LJ Araujo, Braeden Scoles, Andrew Sparks
• Losses: Andrew Barbosa

Mikey Caliendo, Iowa

• Wins: LaDarion Lockett, LJ Aruajo, Andrew Sparks, Paddy Gallagher, Connor Euton, Braeden Scoles (twice) 
• Losses: LaDarion Lockett, Joey Blaze, Mitchell Mesenbrink (twice)

LaDarion Lockett, Oklahoma State

• Wins: Mikey Caliendo, Will Denny, LJ Araujo, Ryder Downey, Matty Bianchi, Conor Euton
• Losses: Nicco Ruiz, Mikey Caliendo

Nicco Ruiz, Arizona State

• Wins: LaDarion Lockett, Ryder Downey, Connor Euton
• Losses: Dylan Gilcher, Max Brignola, Joey Blaze, Ryder Downey, Cesar Alavan

Because Mesenbrink is such a favorite, it’s hard to actually call these four wrestlers 

“Contenders”, but they’re the next level of guys at the weight. After beating Mikey Caliendo soundly in the dual this year, Blaze was looking like the wrestler who would have the highest percentage chance of upsetting Mesenbrink. However, that storyline took a hit when Blaze was upset by Rutgers’ Andrew Barbosa 3-2 at Big Tens. Despite this, Blaze still received the #2 seed. He’ll likely have to go through Connor Euton, Will Denny or Max Brignola, and then Caliendo again just to make it to Mesenbrink. 

Caliendo is as steady as they come. His only losses this year came to Lockett, Blaze, and Mesenbrink, and he got the Lockett one back at the dual in February after losing at National Duals in November. He’s basically a lock to make the finals, where he’s likely to face Joey Blaze. There’s hope if you’re a Hawkeye fan. Although Blaze won handily and without controversy in the dual, FRL host Christian Pyles thinks Caliendo gets his revenge and makes the finals. 

Nicco Ruiz is a bit of the odd man out in this contenders tier, as he, without a doubt, had the worst regular season of the four. The Sun Devil suffered five regular-season losses. Despite this, he’s peaking when it matters. He hasn’t lost since January, got revenge for two of his losses (Brignola, and Downey), and defeated LaDarion Lockett in the Big 12 finals. 

I believe Lockett is more than capable of getting revenge against Ruiz. As the #4 and #5 seeds, that is a potential quarterfinal with the winner getting #1 Mesenbrink in the semis. Lockett can sometimes play it close and have trouble getting to his offense against the top guys at the weight. He was able to continue to find a way to win despite when this happened all year long until suffering losses to Caliendo in the final dual of the year and Ruiz in the conference finals. If he’s wrestling his best, however, I think he makes the semis.

Sleepers & Landmines

• Ty Whalen, Princeton
• Noah Mulvaney, Bucknell
• EJ Parco, Stanford

As a redshirt at 149 lbs at the Midlands in 2024, Ty Whalen defeated Ty Watters and Kyle Parco. The Princeton Tiger has been solid since, but hasn’t quite been able to replicate that level of win since. However, with a 21-5 record at 157 lbs last year and 20-7 going into the tournament this year, if he can unlock that level again somehow, he could put someone on upset alert.

Noah Mulvaney is a scrapper. His club coach, Ben Askren, calls him “The Junkyard Dog” because you don’t want to see him in an alley. If he loses, he’s going to go down swinging.

Competing at 149 while redshirting last year and the beginning of this year at 157, EJ Parco took a bit to get used to 165. He looked solid at ACCs, knocking off NC State’s Will Denny in the semis, and I’m as high as Denny as anyone.

Full 165 Pound Predictions

1. Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State

2. Joey Blaze, Purdue

3. Mikey Caliendo, Iowa

4. LaDarion Lockett, Oklahoma State

5. Nicco Ruiz, Arizona State

6. Ryder Downey, Northern Iowa

7. LJ Araujo, Nebraska

8. Will Denny, NC State

R12. Max Brignola, Lehigh

R12. Matty Bianchi, Little Rock

R12. Cesar Alvan, Cal Poly

R12. Bryce Hepner, North Carolina