157 NCAA Preview And Predictions

157-pound NCAA wrestling preview and predictions.

Oct 21, 2016 by Christian Pyles

With Isaiah Martinez headed up to 165, it clears a lane for a new champion at 157. All signs point to Jason Nolf being that guy. The graduation of Nick Brascetta and Tommy Gantt combined with Chad Walsh transitioning to 165 leaves opportunities for young talent and established vets on the 157 podium.

Jason Nolf and Joseph Smith clash at the Southern Scuffle:

Title Contenders:

Jason Nolf, Penn State
Dylan Palacio, Cornell
Joe Smith, Oklahoma State

I considered giving this one the "Zain treatment" with only one title contender. But given Joe Smith's potential growth from true Freshman to sophomore, combined with the unknown element with DI's biggest wildcard, Dylan Palacio, lead me to have this list contain three. I've said it numerous times, and it bears repeating: Jason Nolf was hands down the most prolific bonus point scorer in the country last year. He had two losses to IMAR, but apart from that he only had two wins by decision: Joe Smith (who he later majored) and Nick Brascetta (4-1).

CP's Predictions:

1. Jason Nolf, Penn State
2. Joseph Smith, Oklahoma State
3. Dylan Palacio, Cornell
4. Michael Kemerer, Iowa
5. Max Rohskopf, NC State
6. Brian Murphy, Michigan
7. Joey LaVallee, Missouri
8. Larry Early III, Minnesota

Round of 12: Jordan Kutler, Lehigh; Richie Lewis, Rutgers; Tyler Berger, Nebraska; Jake Ryan, Ohio State

Another pretty simple pick for me. There's nobody who can win a point-scoring contest with this guy over seven minutes. Not in this field. His variety of attacks, turns, and counters make him a difficult problem to solve. Where are the holes to exploit? He'll give up a TD from time to time. Basically whoever beats him will have to sneak a TD and hold on. I just don't see anyone able to fend him off for seven minutes.

Joseph Smith has shown he can wrestle competitively with Nolf, even scoring a takedown against the Penn State stud last year. For a true freshman, the consistency Joseph showed was impressive. He never has a down match or a strange loss. Sometimes he wasn't as good as others, but he never let his wrestling dip below a certain level. When you consider the room he's in, his natural gifts and ability to get to legs, Smith can't be discounted.

Palacio behind Smith seems odd considering Dylan is 2-0 against Joe. I was wrong about their rematch last time around, and I could always be wrong again. I just think this time around, we'll see Smith adjust tactics (stop trying to ride Palacio) and keep it neutral. Smith can't scramble with Palacio, few can. I think Smith keeps it basic and neutral and wins. Palacio is the biggest wildcard for this weight. He does things that basically nobody else in the country does. He's probably the most dangerous bottom wrestler in the country and can scramble better than probably anyone not named Jason Nolf. That is the area that makes Palacio most interesting. If he can eat up large chunks of time in long scrambles, he could effectively shrink the match and make the bout about one key exchange. If he can do that against Nolf, maybe he pulls off the upset. Palacio is great from 2 on 1, it's his primary hold to get to legs. I look for a strong year for the L40 soldier.

Iowa fans are certainly excited for their new face at 157. Michael Kemerer hit the ground running last year while redshirting at 149 pounds. I'd be lying if I wasn't just a touch concerned that he's a 149-pounder wrestling up because of this Sorensen guy. What gives me confidence is his frame and the knowledge that putting on necessary size would be important coming into this year. What also quells my concerns is his offense. He can get to both legs incredibly well and is a fairly high percentage finisher. I do worry about how much he has to come out the backdoor. The NCAA field can neutralize a lot of those finishes with far ankle scrambles. He'll be solid enough there that I don't think that will be exploited. On top, he's more than serviceable with a strong ability to ride with turns to boot. He had wins over All-Americans last year as well as a number of other ranked opponents. Strong year coming for the Hawkeye.

Down a weight, Max Rohskopf could be problems. He gave guys issues with his strength as it was. The end of his season may cool some on his potential. He's not going to beat good guys with leg attacks, so get that out of your head. Where he can win is on top and with counters. That can only take you so far, but for Max, I think it lands him on the podium. If the cut is no big deal, he can do big things his senior season.

Rohskopf takes out All-American David McFadden:
Brian Murphy is a delicious turkey sandwich. Sometimes people overlook turkey sandwiches and fall in love with the newest fads: wraps, bowls, etc. The turkey sandwich will always remain a fine, fine option. While we'll never order the turkey sandwich for our fancy dinner at Ruth's Chris, it will always be a healthy and tasty option. Brian has gotten it done at NCAAs the last two years. He's tough as heck, difficult to score on and has the ability to wrestle with almost anyone at this weight. He's not a sexy AA pick, but tell me why not to order this tasty option for lunch this year?

I mentioned Joey LaVallee as one of my sleepers this year, so I'll put my proverbial money where my mouth is. I like him to be better this year, and he was already pretty tough. Like the aforementioned turkey sandwich, he won't blow many people away. However, I think he does enough to place top eight this year.

Having LE3 in my top eight is by far my biggest gamble. First, the spot is far from guaranteed with No. 9 Jake Short in the mix and more than a solid option. Second, his redshirt year wasn't inspirational. I think we'll see a more focused Early this year. His talent has never been an issue. He can scramble and attack legs well. Additionally, he's got some serious upper-body chops. For all I know, he won't start here, will go 165 and just be OK. I'm thinking otherwise.

For the round of 12, there's absolutely potential for all these guys to place. I really wavered on Kutler who, like Early, will have to beat out a tough, established teammate to start. I'm told he's looking fantastic right now, so watch out for him. Lewis has knocked off tough guys like Brian Murphy in the past. There's no doubting his AA potential. Berger and Ryan may be a rung below, but remember they were just freshmen last year. Their arc is pointing up.