A year ago we all saw the spectacle of PSU v. Iowa at the Bryce Jordan Center.  As outstanding as that dual was from a fan perspective, Iowa/PSU last year doesn’t compare on the national scale to Ohio State vs Penn State.  This dual has been discussed and built up throughout the year.  Though TOSU may not have quite the pop to beat PSU in a tournament, they're a fantastic match up against Penn State in a dual setting.  

125 - #1 Nathan Tomasello, Ohio State vs #4 Nico Megaludis, Penn State

Nico potentially winning this match gives me a nightmare scenario for ranking purposes. I think it’s a scenario we’re going to see.  In a vacuum all things being equal I may in fact view Nathan as the superior guy skill for skill.  

However,  if we look back at Nathan’s track record for his FIRST crack against elite guys, he has lost those matches each time.  He lost to Joey Dance, then beat him the next time.  He lost to Thomas Gilman, then beat him the next time.  He lost to Alan Waters, then beat him the next time.  I think that’s a real possibility for this match.  Nico has this uncanny ability to win matches in unique ways.  Whether it’s a ride-out, a reversal, a sneaky quick counter td, Nico just wins matches in these kinds of spots.  I think Tomasello will struggle to get to legs against Nico and even if he gets in, he’s never had to finish against someone like Nico.  Nico may not be better (though he might be), but I do think he wins by a point.

PSU: 3
OSU: 0

Here's Nico's win over Delgado a few years back. 

133 - #15 Johnni DiJulius, Ohio State vs #5 Jordan Conaway, Penn State

My upset senses are tingling a little for this one.  As badly as JDJ may be trending, matchups matter.  Recall Conaway’s match against DiCamillo at the Scuffle.  DiCam controlled ties (wrists) very well, used his length, got to singles and dominated a long stretch of that match.  Then we saw Conaway hit that gear like we’ve seen him do time and time again where his pace becomes too much and ultimately he won.  

So if we conveniently ignore the part where DiCamillo fell apart at the end and look at the meat of that match, I see a lot of similarities in what could make this a problematic bout for Jordan Conaway. JDJ has largely been scouted and scouted and guys are doing a better job of avoiding his ties.  Many guys have that success against JDJ the 2nd time around.  This will be the first meeting between the two.  Recall JDJ is a guy in his career with wins over Cody Brewer (twice, actually), Cory Clark, Jimmy Gulibon (multiple times) and Joe Colon.  Many of these meetings were the first time these two hit, and on a few occasions these results were reversed.  So first crack in this dual and I can’t believe I’m going there but I’m calling the upset. Johnni is DUE in a major way for a win that really defies explanation.  Conaway has been MONEY at home and even beat Tyler Graff there a few years ago.  His motor doesn’t stop.  I think Jordan’s size and style put him at a slight disadvantage this time against Johnni.  JDJ wins by decision.

Ohio State: 3
PSU: 3

Here's that Conaway/DiCamillo match I mentioned:

141 - #6 Micah Jordan, Ohio State vs Jimmy Gulibon, Penn State

Jimmy will be in the match, there’s not much doubt in my mind about that.  However, I think Micah presents some problems for Jimmy.  I think he’ll struggle to finish on Micah because of his size and length. Micah has been very good but a tad untested of late.  Also, you have to consider the hour weigh in.  If Micah’s cut is rough, it could spell trouble late against Gulibon.

All that said, I think Micah is a takedown or two better than Jimmy and he’ll take this one by decision.

OSU: 6
PSU: 3

149 - Cody Burcher, Ohio State vs #1 Zain Retherford, Penn State

Hunter Stieber, Cody Burcher, it doesn’t matter.  PSU is winning big time here.  Zain is pinning everyone in sight.  That’s going down again. Retherford will overwhelm and pin.  He’s a new man from the top position.  I won’t waste your time with analysis here.  Zain by fall.

PSU: 9
OSU: 6

157 - #11 Jake Ryan, Ohio State vs #1 Jason Nolf, Penn State

Ryan represents a contingent at 157 that from about 11 on back to 20 and beyond are approximately the same guy.  Ryan has been super solid only losing to elite guys.  His wins aren’t really there yet, though he has a few.  He’s tough to score on in many of his matches.  

Nolf will absolutely overwhelm here.  Ryan is being sent out on a bonus point preservation mission.  Keep it to a major or dec and that’s a job well done for Jake.  The way Nolf has been competing, I don’t we’ll see that.  Give me the tech for Nolf.

PSU: 14
OSU: 6

165 - #2 Bo Jordan, Ohio State vs #11 Shakur Rasheed, Penn State

You have to love Bo in this spot, but I think Rasheed will prove difficult to blow out.  He hasn’t shown real vulnerability from underneath, rather his conditioning.  I think Bo takes this one by a lopsided decision.  I think Rasheed will hang and make things difficult enough early that the points don’t come easily.

The part that makes this especially difficult is Rasheed has not faced an elite rider this year. It’s possible that he is not ready for the double legs/half combo that makes Bo a terror.  Bo has been hit or miss with bonus.  He has quite a few pins but every now and again a guy like Christian Brucki comes along and holds him to a decision.  

I don’t feel strong about anything other than a Bo win.  By how much is a real mystery.  I’m saying a lopsided decision for Bo Jordan.

PSU: 14
OSU: 9

174 - #15 Myles Martin, Ohio State vs #1 Bo Nickal, Penn State

These two met earlier this year and it was just a 4-3 win for Nickal at the NLO.  Nickal has since ascended to the top spot in the rankings.  Martin was pulled from redshirt and has been quite impressive, but not on Nickal’s level of production.  I always say in these that match ups matter.  I think Myles is very difficult to score on, and Bo’s propensity to attack may leave him vulnerable for Myles’ re-attacks.  

With that considered, I think Bo comes out with a better-honed gameplan and wins comfortably.  I think we’ll see him have success from low ankle attacks and he’ll thrive in the scrambles. Nickal wins by a couple.

PSU: 17
OSU: 9

184 - #13 Kenny Courts, Ohio State vs #7 Matt McCutcheon, Penn State

Things aren’t trending in the right direction for McCutcheon heading into this match.  He’s yet to beat Courts in his career and he’s coming off of an injury.  Courts hasn’t been anything to write home about this year in his own right.  I can’t get the memory of him getting teched 15-0 against Miklus out of my mind.  He also was blown out 7-1 by Dudley who McCutcheon has beaten this year.

If I pick McCutcheon I’m going against their history which favors Kenny.  If I pick Kenny, I’m going against all the indicators that this season has given us.  Give me McCutcheon in a tight one.

PSU: 20
OSU: 9

Check out the NCAA meeting between Courts and McCutcheon here:

197 - Mark Martin, Ohio State vs #1 Morgan McIntosh, Penn State

There’s a possibility we will see Jack Rozema for Ohio State in this spot.  No matter who gets the nod, it will be tough sledding against Morgan McIntosh.  McIntosh has been on a bonus point tear this season with a pile of majors, techs and pins. I’m feeling a major decision here.  

Martin’s advantage is his speed and agility being a smaller 97.  That won’t be an advantage for Mark in this spot, however.  McIntosh is every bit as fast and agile combined with great attacks, scrambles and turns.  I like a major here for McIntosh with lots of riding time.  

PSU: 24
OSU: 9

285 - #2 Kyle Snyder, Ohio State vs Jan Johnson, Penn State

The question here isn’t "who?” it’s “by how much?” Looking to make up for some previous bonus points, I think we could see Kyle Snyder’s first D1 fall.  He went all of last year without a pin. Johnson has struggled and currently has only one win on the season.    

This is likely self-efident based on my previous sentence but Snyder struggles to turn guys in the folkstyle sense.  He’s almost exclusively takedown, cut and get out on bottom.  I think Snyder has his way with Johnson but I’m not ready to call the pin.  Takedowns for days, but ‘just’ a tech fall for the Buckeyes.

Final Score:
PSU: 24
OSU: 14

So it’s a 10 point win for PSU.  All Ohio State needs to win this dual is a NATO win as well as a Courts win over McCutcheon.  So while I was very bullish earlier this week on radio about TOSU’s chances.  It’s right there for the taking.