Why the Iowa Hawkeyes wont win the National Duals
 January 9, 2009
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National Duals Preview and Picks Ian McCutcheon FloWrestling.org While our crew at Flo will be at the Virginia Duals this weekend, which boasts national powers Lehigh, Oklahoma State, Central Michigan, and Edinboro, there will be another frenzy of dual meets in the Midwest. This weekend is the annual NWCA/Cliff Keen National Duals, theoretically crowning the best dual meet team in the country. As always, it is a star studded field, with top ranked Iowa looking to defend its crown and win the event for the fifth time. The Hawkeyes will certainly be tested though, as they are one of seven top ten teams entered in the field. There are enough salient match ups that this is worth a full bracket preview equipped with picks. First Round (seeds appear before team names) #1 Iowa vs. #16 Wyoming This match is more about the future than the present. Iowa is a runaway favorite and the popular pick to win the entire tournament. Wyoming hardly has the name recognition of the Gold and Black, but being entered in this tournament is an important first step in the overall plan of first year head coach Mark Branch. Branch is the type of young, enthusiastic head coach needed to spread wrestling outside of the Big 12/Big Ten vice grip. His Cowboys finished 19th in Vegas, with red-shirt freshman Joe LeBlanc being the surprise of the tournament at 184 pound. LeBlanc defeated Nebraska standout Vince Jones there to finish 3rd, and shouldn’t be counted out against Hawkeye star Phil Keddy. While I don’t expect this one to be close, it is the change in attitude and the expectations that go along with just being here are the real wins for Wyoming. #8 Minnesota vs. #9 Buffalo Minnesota finds itself in an unusual spot. They are seeded 8th here and ranked outside the top ten for the first time in years. This is a green Minnesota squad, and while they may not make serious waves in this tournament, they match up well with the Buffalo Bulls. Kevin Smith, the Bulls wins leader, meets Minnesota’s best wrestler, Jayson Ness, at 133, Mickey Moran, the most experienced member of the Bulls lineup meets super talented redshirt freshman Sonny Yohn at 184, and John Martin-Cannon draws Tyler Safratowich at 157. While this is the Minnesota team for a school like Buffalo to upset, the match ups just aren’t there. #5 Missouri vs. #12 Penn State Anybody who follows the NCAA basketball tournament knows that there is a 5-12 upset every year. While Penn State would certainly hope that this steadfast rule carries over to wrestling too, it will be an uphill battle. The Missouri upper weights have the kind of firepower the Nittany Lions cannot handle. From 57 up, the Tigers are brutal, and I don’t see either Dan Vallimont or Quentin Wright being able to steal decisions for Penn State. The Nittany Lions need to build momentum in the first four bouts. Marcus Hoehn and Frank Molinaro, as well as the Vallimont-Michael Chandler and Wright-Raymond Jordan bouts will be key for Penn State, but I don’t think this one will ever be in doubt for Missouri. #4 Nebraska vs. #13 Northwestern One of the impressive storylines of this season so far has been Nebraska’s ability to overcome a series of off-season distractions and reload after a resurgent 2008 season. Northwestern lost boatloads of experience, and while they have a few outstanding individuals, they will have a tough time overcoming the Cornhuskers depth. Nobody has a top of the lineup quite like Nebraska. They trot out Jordan Burroughs, Stephen Dwyer, Brandon Browne, Vince Jones, Craig Brester, and Tucker Lane. Oh my. Burroughs and freshman phenom Jason Welch will have everybody watching in this one, but a less showy but equally intriguing match up is Husker freshman John Burns against NCAA qualifier Keith Sulzer. Burns has raced out to a 14-3 record, cracking the Nebraska duals line up against Michigan. He gets much less press than Welch, the other true freshman in this dual, but could turn some heads with an upset of Sulzer here and fuel the Husker victory. #3 Cornell vs. #14 Michigan Will we see Troy Nickerson this weekend? That is the question on the mind of everybody in Ithaca. Nickerson has been out of action since the first weeks of the season. If he is here and healthy, the Big Red are as good as anyone in the country. Mike Grey is back to 133 and looks like himself again, and Jordan Leen, Mack Lewnes, and Steve Anceravage is a difficult middle of the lineup to get through. Meanwhile, this Michigan team looks familiar; three absolute studs in Kellen Russell, Steve Luke, and Tyrell Todd, but matching up in every match they’ll have trouble. Luke and Anceravage will be worth the price of admission, but Cornell should win going away. #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Northern Iowa The Buckeyes have a chance to roll here. They came into the year with national title hopes based on last season’s runner up finish. While that goal is doubtful, Tom Ryan’s squad has the balance to be successful in duals. They have few wrestlers that will overwhelm you but plenty that beat you. Northern Iowa suffers from a case of bad match ups. Their best wrestlers seem to catch the best the Buckeyes have to offer. However, the Moza Fay-Colt Sponsellor rematch at 165 will have everybody in the arena watching. Fay has been spectacular this year, while Sponsellor is an aggressive fan favorite. While I think Fay will win the battle, the Buckeyes should win the war. #7 Wisconsin vs. #10 Boise State Wisconsin was my preseason sleeper. Boise State is also one of my unheralded teams to watch. Unfortunately they draw each other here in the first round. While I like the young squad from Boise State, in particular I think Jason Chamberlain is a flat out stud and will defeat veteran Kyle Ruschell, I like the Badgers here. Zach Tanelli looked like a world beater at Midlands, Andrew Howe may be the best of a strong class of freshman, and they could get bonus points up top from Dallas Herbst and Kyle Massey, which will push this one over the edge. #2 Iowa State vs. #15 Indiana The Hoosiers lower weights have been the strength of their lineup for years now. Starting matches with Angel Escobedo, Matt Ortega, and Andrae Hernandez is a great way to build momentum. Unfortunately, Iowa State has Nick Fanthorpe to match up with Ortega and Nick Gallick to match up with Hernandez. From there, the Cyclones have a bevy of wrestlers that can put up bonus points, and I don’t see the Hoosiers being able to keep up. The best match here is Kurt Kinser and Cyler Sanderson. Sanderson has really impressed me this season, and this should be his first of a couple big wins this weekend. Quarterfinals #1 Iowa vs. #8 Minnesota I just sat and looked at the potential match ups here, trying to pick out which bouts would be key. But as I scored the bout to myself, I was blown away with just how much I expected to see the Hawkeyes win by. Jayson Ness and Daniel Dennis will be a great individual match up, but if Dennis pulls the upset it is possible that the Gophers will only win one match. Although this is a Minnesota team caught in a rebuilding year, it’s still Minnesota, and the Hawkeyes will send a message in this one. #5 Missouri vs. #4 Nebraska This will be the battle of the big guys. From 157 up, all of the matches are barnburners. Top ten wrestlers face each other at 57, 65, 74, and 97. All four of these are tosses, with each team slightly favored in two. The separation up top will come in the battle at 184. The Huskers Vince Jones is much more proven, but the Tigers Dorian Henderson has bottomless talent and will be a star in the future. For right now though, I like Jones in the match up. The other key for Nebraska will be the performance of heavyweight Tucker Lane. He’s been impressive, but Mark Ellis is national title good. If Lane can avoid bonus, coupled with the Jones win, I like the Cornhuskers here. But it’ll be the match of the day. #3 Cornell vs. #6 Ohio State This will be another nail biter. The health of Josh Arnone will be critical here. Arnone defaulted out of the consolation bracket at the Southern Scuffle after making his first appearance of the year. If he does not wrestle or even if he’s not on top of his game, Cody Gardner can and will win here. That splits my bout count 5-5. The question of Nickerson’s health is also a concern. Without him here, Nikko Triggas swings another match in the Buckeyes favor. Ohio State also has a good shot at bonus points with Mike Pucillo lurking at 184. The first upset of the day comes with the Buckeyes knocking off the Big Red. #2 Iowa State vs. #7 Wisconsin While the dual here should be a comfortable Iowa State win, Nick Gallick and Jake Varner should both be out for revenge. Gallick was defeated by Zach Tanelli when Iowa State beat Wisconsin 27-7 earlier in the season. Tanelli has been a giant killer recently, knocking off Corey Jantzen and Alex Tsirtsis at Midlands, giving him three wins over top two wrestlers already this season. Varner has split is matches this year with Dallas Herbst, with Herbst winning the latest installment of the rivalry and claiming a Midlands title. If both Iowa State wrestlers avenge these losses, the final in this one won’t be pretty. Semifinals #1 Iowa vs. #4 Nebraska Is it possible? Can anybody beat the Iowa? The Huskers certainly think so. There are two keys here to fuel the upset. One is Jordan Burroughs matching whatever bonus points Brent Metcalf puts up. Second is how well Nebraska’s other stars perform. Stephen Dwyer and Brandon Browne have huge toss ups with Ryan Morningstar and Jay Borschel. Should they win those two, the upset then is really brewing. While Iowa is much better suited for tournaments, Nebraska matches up well with them in a dual setting. Iowa has already had a close call with their archrival Iowa State, and if they are at all looking ahead to a rematch, they’ll be watching an all Big 12 final. I smell an upset here by Nebraska. #2 Iowa State vs. #6 Ohio State This bout will come down to three toss ups. The first is at 133 where Reece Humphrey and Nick Fanthorpe clash. Humphrey has made the leap this year from young wrestler to contender. Fanthorpe had a similar breakout last season, and now is one of the nation’s elite. Humphrey has more to prove here, and I like the hungry dog in the fight. The next important bout is 141. This weight class has been topsy-turvy all year long, and nothing is a better sign of that than the struggles of defending national champion J Jaggers. If the Buckeyes want to go to finals, they’ll need him to beat Nick Gallick. At this point, I don’t see that happening anymore. Finally, two sophomore studs will clash at 165. Colt Sponsellor is a goer, while Jon Reader likes to control tie-ups and pace. Sponsellor has struggled at times when his motor can be slowed down. This will put the Cyclones over the edge. Finals #2 Iowa State vs. #4 Nebraska Like all of their duals this weekend, Nebraska will need to keep it close in the early going. If Tyler Clark, Fanthorpe, Gallick, or Mitch Mueller pick up bonus points, this one is over. But then that stellar top of the line up will have a chance to work. Stephen Dwyer will have to have yet another stellar performance on the day, as he takes on Jon Reader in a must win. Craig Brester will also need to defend his top ranking in the nation when he wrestles the man he claimed the title from, Jake Varner. Even if things fall so perfectly for Nebraska and they avoid early bonus points and win those two toss ups, Iowa State still has one thing they don’t: a closer. A great heavyweight is like the back end of a lights out bullpen. It’s tough to win when Mariano Rivera is lurking to finish. Iowa State has a Rivera in Dave Zabriskie. If this comes down to the wire, which it very well could. Zabriskie is the kid you want to see running out if you’re a Cyclone fan. He’ll close the dual, and Iowa State will be your 2009 National Duals Champion. |
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