Unnecessarily Large Season Preview

Ian McCutcheon

FloWrestling 

Season previews are kind of pointless.  October is a time for questions, most of which can’t possibly be answers until March.  Take the theme of last year’s previews for example.  Minnesota was going to score the most points in NCAA history, Iowa was inexperienced and had distractions to overcome, Dustin Schlatter was ready to prove his 3^rd place finish was a fluke, and Jordan Leen’s parents were the only people thinking title.  As history tells us, this was all flawed logic.  Basically, what I’m trying to get at is predictions are useless.  Instead I want to focus on two major categories to flesh out my preseason thoughts, what we know will happen during the season, and what we’re sure we’re going to find out.  Here is my mega-NCAA season preview. 

What We Know 

Iowa will be tested:  Are the Hawkeyes the favorite?  No doubt about it.  No lineup can match the firepower they have with Charlie Falck, Joey Slaton/Daniel Dennis, Alex Tsirtsis/Dan LeClere, Brent Metcalf, Jay Borschel, and Phil Keddy all high AA or title threats.  But they certainly aren’t invincible.  The questions at 133 and 141 are problems any coach would love to have, but it also takes the right type of athlete to be able to deal with a competition like that.  It’ll also be seen how team morale is be affected with two potential All Americans on the bench, especially if they are seniors.  Beyond those issues, there also are plenty of teams with enough ability to dethrone Iowa.  Iowa State seems to match up well with the Hawkeyes and has plenty of potential champs.  Cornell could score a ton of points at the tournament and welcomes back Troy Nickerson to an already stacked lineup.  And Ohio State appears to have an even stronger and more mature line up, which is impressive considering their second place finish a year ago.  Iowa is the pick for now, but by no means is it in the bag. 

There will be a freshman that everybody is talking about:  People like what’s new.  Combine that with how prevalent high school wrestling is on the national scene and people love to anoint true freshman as contenders.  This year could look a lot like 2006, which saw two freshman in finals.  The high school class of 2008 is one of the strongest in years.  Plenty of blue chippers with eschew red-shirts and compete as true freshman.  All reports seem to have Quentin Wright jumping right into the lineup at Penn State.  Wright has a resume that included a number of wins over college wrestlers, and has created buzz no Penn State freshman has received since Cary Kolat.  Andrew Howe at Wisconsin is another hot name and with 165 lacking a lot of stars, he could end up with the best postseason finish of anyone in his class.  But most of the attention is focused on the fictitious rivalry at 157 between Scott Winston of Rutgers and Jason Welch of Northwestern.  Welch has received Metcalf/Schlatter/Nickerson like hype, and has a skill set that is matched by few.  Winston is a bull of a wrestler, and helps legitimize the Rutgers program, a perennial sleeping giant.  There was plenty of debate as to who the best recruit in the country was, and now their supporters will get to see. 

Someone will get hot early:  We saw it last season with Darrion Caldwell and Lou Ruggirello.  Somebody will come out of the gate and annihilate all comers.  This will announce them as a player on the national scene.  It’ll be somebody who is a pinner, since falls garner the most attention.  By January, whoever this is will have cooled down, whether it be unspectacular wins over lesser opponents, or a loss to another ranked wrestler that “exposes” the early season phenom.  By March they’ll be back off the radar, then surprise people when they make a run at NCAAs.  My pick: Corey Jantzen blows through the early part of his schedule and impressively wins Vegas. 

Pat Santoro is a good coach:  One of the most anticipated matches of the season is the Pat Santoro Bowl, which will pit Maryland against Lehigh the second weekend of the season.  The program Santoro built will come to fruition this season, where the Terps are loaded, and could put ACC wrestling back on the map.  More on that later.  Meanwhile, Santoro is taking over a once proud Lehigh program seemingly falling on hard times.  They will be noticeably better, especially from their feet, where they struggled mightily the past few years.  Santoro will diversify the Hawks offensively, and look for at least one of their young wrestlers to blossom into an All American contender.  They won’t be dormant for long, especially once he gets his kids in there. 

Somebody will come out of nowhere to win a title:  We think we know, but we really have no idea.  The beauty and the curse of college wrestling is that all it takes is one good weekend to cement your name among the immortals.  The trick is seeing it coming.  Weights like 141 and heavyweight are so wide open this season that somebody from outside the top ten or the traditional power conferences very well could sneak up on everybody.  Just don’t be surprised when it happens. 

Not everybody will repeat:  History tells us that about one third of defending champs defend their title.  Angel Escobedo, J Jaggers, Brent Metcalf, Jordan Leen, and Mike Pucillio all return with a target on their backs.  Escobedo (Indiana) and Pucillio (Ohio State) both have to deal with bona fide studs returning to their weight classes, Jaggers (Ohio State) is getting little respect from pre-season prognostications, and Leen (Cornell) was the biggest surprise in recent memory.  Only Metcalf seems to be a heavy favorite to repeat.  He very well may be the only one. 

The buzz weight is 157:  There are three wrestlers this season ranked at 157 that have won NCAA titles in their career.  And the best wrestler at 57 might not even be one of them.  Gregor Gillespie (Edinboro), Jordan Leen, and Dustin Schlatter (Minnesota) all have titles to their name.  Gillespie is as exciting as anybody in the sport; Leen had the toughest road to finals of anybody and is the defending champ.  And Schlatter, the former second coming, will be the most scrutinized wrestler in America after a tough junior year.  But the favorite here might be Mike Poeta of Illinois, who is probably the best current wrestler without a title.  He lost a classic to Leen in finals last season, and should be loaded for bear this year. Beyond these four, there also is Dan Vallimont of Penn State, who was the most improved wrestler in America, J.P. O’Connor of Harvard, who could not be more underrated, returning All Americans Cyler Sanderson of Iowa State and Matt Moley of Bloomsburg, plus Adam Hall of Boise State, Johnny Bonilla-Bowman of Hofstra, Matt Coughlin of Indiana, and a slew of other guys that could end up on the podium.  In my opinion, this year’s 157 is even better than last season’s 149.  No weight class will be more exciting. 

What We Will Find Out 

Can Metcalf do it? Last season, Mr. Metcalf put together one of the most impressive performances in recent memory, rolling easily through a stacked weight class to win a national title and the Hodge Trophy in his first year of competition. The trick now is repeating the feat, which may not be as easy as advertised.  No wrestler has repeated at 142/149 since Pat Santoro in 1988.  That is twenty years worth of very good wrestlers that couldn’t defend their title.  149 is always loaded.  Even though Metcalf has navigated the mine field once, he’s the man to beat now instead of the newcomer looking to make his mark.  To quote the great Charles Barkely “There’s no such thing as a second year slump, they just didn’t know who your ass was.”  They know who Metcalf is now, and every 49 pounder in the country is training specifically to beat him.  He very well might repeat, but it won’t be as easy as advertised. 

How has the year off treated Jake Herbert and Troy Nickerson?  Because of the Olympics and injuries, we were without two of the biggest stars in college wrestling last season.  Jake Herbert of Northwestern is back to defend his title at 184, with infinitely more questions than answers.  He was a wrecking ball two years ago, but has a number of head scratching losses in his year off, including a folkstyle defeat by Jake Varner of Iowa State, who he pummeled in finals the year before, and a freestyle loss to Tyrell Todd of Michigan.  Both of these competitors fell to Mike Pucillio last season, who now wears the belt at 184.  If the 2007 version of Herbert shows up, he should win.   But who knows what a year off will do.  Nickerson on the other hand was bit by the injury bug.  He challenges Poeta for the distinction of best current wrestler without a title.  He’s come dangerously close twice.  But there are questions both about his recovery and where he will wrestle this season.  Common logic seems to think he’ll make 125 again, in a weight class that is suddenly ruled by Angel Escobedo.  For both wrestlers, they are welcomed back to a completely different landscape and a new mountain to climb. 

Will moving up help?  A number of high profile wrestlers are moving up a weight class this season.  The strategy certainly paid off for guys like Chad Mendes and Eric Tannenbaum, but the wrestling community always seems to think that the farther the cut, the better (just look at the David Craig speculation).  Some of these guys will definitely buck common logic.  For Dustin Schlatter, I think the move up to 157 could be a great one.  His offense has all but disappeared, and he hasn’t been healthy in three years.  He was gigantic for 149, and I can’t help but think the cut was killing him.  When healthy, he’s as good as they get.  Furthermore, I’m pulling for the kid.  He’s too talented to not have a great senior year.  Jake Varner moves up to 197, where he begins the year ranked 1^st by most publications.  Varner is an immovable object, and I don’t think the 13 pound jump will hurt him defensively.  He, however, moves into a loaded field where the contenders match his strength.  It will be even more imperative for him to generate offense, which is certainly not his MO.  I also wonder if he’ll be as effective on top against the big boys.  Most of the contenders here are physical specimen, and Varner will be hard pressed to overpower them.  Jayson Ness was a monster for 125, and there is no surprise he moves up.  Until his finals match, he was all but crowned the champion, and has lost almost all of his buzz coming into this year. But make no mistake, he might be the favorite at 133.  I think his skills will translate smoother to the higher weight class than Varner, who he is similar to.  He lives on top, but his half series is made for the lower weights.  JP O’Connor, Matt Kyler, Mike Grey, Adam Hall, and Tyrell Todd are other potential All Americans who will try to get it done by moving up. 

Which surprise champs are for real?  All offseason long Jordan Leen and J Jaggers have heard that they were fluke champions, and that they’d be hard pressed to duplicate the feat.  Each had tremendous weekends, and knocked off the best wrestlers in their weight classes.  Their titles were well earned.  But both will face the added challenge of being the defending champ.  For some, a title gives them a new fire, and they wrestle better than ever.  Others wilt under the pressure of being the champ.  Leen is faced with battling the toughest weight class in the country.  Repeating would be admirable.  However, Jaggers is just scratching the surface of how good he can be.  Especially if he’s healthy (which is always a problem), I see his run being like Joe Dubuque or Matt Valenti, defending champs who received little or no acclaim, then came back and ran through the tournament. 

 
Who is this year’s Nebraska?  Off season jokes aside, Nebraska was beyond impressive last year.  Before the year started, they were just outside the national radar.  They had the pieces in place to compete, but had yet to prove they were a real player.  By the end of the year, they were a top 3 team, and announced the rejuvenation of the program.  This year, the Wisconsin Badgers are the team lurking to join the top 5.  The Badgers feature returning potential All Americans Kyle Ruschell, Dallas Herbst and Kyle Massey.  Massey and Herbst both could win titles, and they are experienced and steady at 141 and 184.  Barry Davis has an experienced and battle tested core which should mix nicely with the best recruiting class in the nation.  The aforementioned Andrew Howe will definitely start and depending on the situation in the room, we may see Ben Jordan.  These two certainly are talented, and balance the Badger lineup to the point where team hardware may be in their future. 

What teams will crash the party? With the new qualifier system as well as a shifting balance of power among mid-majors, it is entirely possible that we will be seeing a handful of new teams creep into the upper echelon of college wrestling.  Obviously the Big Ten and Big 12 will always be the big boys, but the Pac-10 and ACC could start stealing spots from the EIWA, MAC, and EWL sooner rather than later.  Boise State is in the middle of this transformation, and has the firepower to finish in the top 10.  I really like Adam Hall and Kirk Smith this year to be in the title mix.  They are the great hope for the western part of the country.  Oregon State is a few years behind the Broncos, but also will be a perennial contender in the coming years.  Virginia and Maryland are also on the move.  The Cavaliers will field a solid team, filled with NCAA qualifiers.  Look for breakout years from Mike Chaires, Ross Gitomer, and Nick Nelson.  Meanwhile, Maryland is setting the blueprint for rebuilding a mid-major from scratch.  There are justifiably high expectations in College Park.  Hudson Taylor is a popular pick to win 197 and if he wrestles, Mike Letts is due to All American at 174.  But the Terps strength comes in their rising crop of stars.  Steve Bell, Eric Medina, and Brian Letters all have earned pre-season rankings, and each could make a leap from good to special.  The Terps also have sleepers in Brendan Byrne and Alex Krom who are both tough and vastly underrated.  That is seven wrestlers they could score points from, and their showing could be the start of the return of the ACC. 

Who makes “the leap”?   Every year, there are guys that make the leap from good wrestler to All American caliber.  Sometimes it takes a coaching change, sometimes it’s a change in attitude, sometimes it’s just a year of maturity.  But there are stars out there waiting for it to happen.  Here is one at each weight class.  At 125, everybody forgets how good of a wrestler Brad Pataky is.  He took rare back-to-back redshirt years because of the Olympics, but he was one of the best high school wrestlers in America, and will contend in an open weight class.  At 133, Reece Humphrey puts it all together.  He’s had an amazing few runs in the summer, and his hard work in freestyle will translate to folk finally.  As I mentioned earlier, with a year under his belt Corey Jantzen will be a force at 141.  At 149, Cesar Grajales does not receive the hype of his little brother, but is ready to be an All American.  Although Penn has had a difficult offseason, the movement of guys up to 157 opens the door for his breakout year.  Last year, 157 saw the biggest leap when Dan Vallimont announced his presence as a star.  This year, Adam Hall will put it all together.  At 165, Donnie Jones has had a career full of injuries.  If he is finally healthy, he will be the next in a long line of Jones brothers to star for West Virginia.  At 174, as mentioned before, if Mike Letts does not red-shirt, he will be a huge point scorer for the Terps.  He’s had two disappointing NCAA tournaments, but won’t have a third.  At 184, Edinboro’s Chris Honeycutt lives up to his St. Ed’s pedigree.  Tim Flynn is among the best coaches in the country, and Honeycutt helps Edinboro live up to their “little powerhouse that could” billing.  At 197, the pride of Idaho Clayton Foster gives the Oklahoma State Cowboys another hammer at the top to go along with Jared Rosholt.  At heavyweight, Lehigh will receive a boost from red-shirt freshman Zack Rey, who in a shallow weight class could find himself in position to be a four-time All American, and the start of Pat Santoro’s rebuilding project. 
 
 
 
 
 

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#13	Leroy Jenkins   November 10, 2008 at 7:29am Ian, very good article. Oh how I enjoyed reading that with me ole' morning coffee and apple. We love FLO. Thank you. reply
#12	Mark Niemann   November 7, 2008 at 10:18pm I like the positive questions! Good stuff. One "negative" question is who will come in with the hype and not live up to it? Great read. reply
#11	Anonymous Coward   November 7, 2008 at 10:16pm Three NCAA champs at 157? Crap! Between that and 149 I don't know which one's tougher. See what Raymond Jordan does down at 174 though, and Scott Steele's finally got his shot at heavyweight. Herbert had asthma but got it under control so he still looks good at 184. Can't predict much of anything though. Gonna be a fun season! reply
#10	Jim Dalton   November 7, 2008 at 9:29pm This guy is your best writer (outside of Rollie's Blog)....no bull#$%*...well spoken, articulate - I liked the unique approach. reply
#9	Anonymous Coward   November 7, 2008 at 5:10pm Really impressed with the depth and scope of article. Is there anything in wrestling that you do not know? Thanks. reply
#8	Anonymous Coward   November 7, 2008 at 10:41am Flo is without a doubt the best thing to happen to wrestling in a long long time...Can you say Marketing!!!! reply
#7	Tyson Young   November 7, 2008 at 10:04am Awesome preview, Ian. Great job you guys are doing at flo. reply
#6	Jason Bryant   November 7, 2008 at 12:00am Nice job Ian. reply
#5	David Challacomb   November 6, 2008 at 11:38pm yeah, really nice article. Flowrestling is a blessing to our sport. Thanks, and keep up the good work. reply
#4	Anonymous Coward   November 6, 2008 at 11:03pm This is gonna be a fun year of college wrestling. reply
#3	Anonymous Coward   November 6, 2008 at 10:13pm good stuff.... no way 157 is tougher than 149 last year though and watch out for Jenkins at 49 even though u didnt mention him, closing the gap on Metcalf reply
#2	Joseph Patterson   November 6, 2008 at 8:19pm Excellent preview. I loved it, especially because it wasn't just a weight by weight breakdown, which is what I was expecting. You should write more. reply
#1	Rollie Peterkin   November 6, 2008 at 1:53pm Great stuff. Everyone always talks about certainties going into the season, but we live in a world (wrestling) of uncertainties. You bring up some pointed and interesting questions. Let the games begin. reply