Fi: National Duals Breakdown

Feb 15, 2014 by Christian Pyles

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Christian Pyles

The premier dual tournament in D1 wrestling is going down this weekend. I’m going to give you my match by match predictions until the Champion is (hypothetically) crowned!

Round 1:

ND State v. UTC
This is a phenomenal first round match up. Two non-traditional powers that are quickly growing into extremely exciting programs. The 165 pound match up between Corey Mock and Steven Monk will be the premier match of round 1. At 197 Tyler Lehman v. Scottie Boykin will be a very important match for both teams. I believe Lehman is the favorite and I think that match nails home the win for ND State. If you get a chance, watch UTC’s Heavyweight Dawson Peck. Dude is 6’8!

I think ND State is a bit more complete here, and for UTC to take a loss from Mock, their best wrestler, is a pretty big blow. I like Monk to prove a little too tough on his feet. Both are amazing on top, but I think Monk’s offense on his feet sets him apart, ever so slightly.

ND State moves on.

ISU v. Kent State
KSU losing 184 Sam Wheeler is a pretty tremendous blow. While Kent will be favored at 33-57 when the roll out McGuire, Small, DePalma and Miller, I think ISU is probably better in the other 6 weights. The Cyclone’s 125 (Hall), 165(Moreno), 174(Weatherman), 184(Weatherspoon), 197(Gadson) and 285(Smith) are my picks to win. The heavyweight match could very well determine the winner here. Quean Smith for ISU is no world beater, but he does have superior wins compared to KSU’s Mimmo Lytle.

I like ISU to win 6-4, but they’ll need to watch they don’t give up too many bonus points in defeat.

Ohio State v. Hofstra
A few really good matches here. Hofstra is tough in the first 3 weights as is Ohio State. Right out of the gate Jamie Franco will take on Nick Roberts at 125. The seasoned veteran Franco gets the edge in my opinion. I think he’ll be a little too physical and punishing for Roberts over the course of a 7 minute match. At 133 Johnni DiJulius will take on Jamel Hudson. Hudson is tough and Johnni has been up and down. All that said, DiJulius will be a little too tough for Hudson in every position. The Logie bear could have a tough one here when he takes on 5th ranked Luke Vaith. You gotta figure Logan sends a message here and dominates Vaith. At 165 Senior Joe Booth of Hofstra will look to take out Joe Grandominico of Ohio State. This should be another win for Hofstra.

Ultimately Ohio State will have too much, but they’ll take some lumps here at 125 and 165 I’d imagine.

Buckeyes win 7 or 8 and cruise to the quarters.

Oklahoma v. Bloomsburg
Very interesting dual here. Will we see Bryce Busler v. Kendric Maple 2!? Here’s hoping! The Sooners miss Patterson in a big way here.

On paper you have to like Bloomsburg at 125 and 165. However, Bloomsburg’s big gun Richard Perry will battle Oklahoma’s Travis Rutt. Rutt has been more battle tested this year, so I’ll favor him in this matchup. At heavyweight Justin Grant of Bloomsburg will take on Ross Larson of Oklahoma. This is a true toss up with both guys having a real chance at a win. I like Grant here.

At the end of the day I think Oklahoma wins 133, 141, 149, 157, 174 and 197. They both have question marks at 184 currently, so maybe we see Howe continue to fill in? It’s a win, but probably a bit closer than Sooner fans would like. If Perry can beat Rutt and they get an upset somewhere else. This could be a bad start to the day for the Sooners.

I’ll take OU. Close.

CMU v. Illinois
The lightweights will have a lot to say about how the team score goes in this one. At 125 #3 Jesse Delgado will take on 15th ranked Corey Keener. Keener hasn’t been great recently, so keeping this to a decision with Jesse is paramount. At 133 #11 Zane Richards will face #16 Joe Roth. Roth is tough as nails, but Richards may be a bit slicker. I’ll take Zane by a takedown here. Zach Horan v. Steven Rodrigues at 141 is another huge one. Consistency from Rodrigues has been hard to find. On the other hand consistency is what comes to mind when I think of Zach Horan. I like Horan in a pretty low scoring bout.

Then you have to favor Illinois at 149, 157, 165 and 197. That should about lock up the dual for the Illini. 157 between Brunson and Smith will be a good one. Don’t miss it!

Illinois advances.

VT v. Oregon State
Alrighty. Here we go for our final round 1 bout. VT will have favorites with Dance (125), Gustafson (133) and Vetterlein(184). I think Oregon State wins at 141 with Delgado over Spjut, 149 with Sakaguchi over Niebert, 157 with Pena over Mastriani, 197 with Meeks over Penny and 285 with Dhesi over Walz. So it’ll take VT winning the toss ups at 165 and 174 as well as some bonus for the Hokies to take this dual. I don’t see it happening. I think Oregon State moves on 6-4 here.

Quarterfinals

Minnesota v. ND State
ND State Coach Roger Kish takes on his alma mater here. If we see Brancale I think Minnesota wins 9 of 10. J Rob’s not showing any mercy to his former pupil here! Monk will be the sole victor for the Bison over Danny Zilverberg. I will say I’m intrigued by the Lehman v. Schiller match potential.

Minnesota heads to the semis!

Iowa State v. Ohio State
At 125 we’ve got two Freshman wading through their own consistency issues. Roberts was a 4-3 winner over Hall at Vegas. The way these two have been trending, it’s hard to say who has the edge. I like Roberts though.

It’ll be all Ohio State at 33, 41, 49 and 184, however. The match of the dual will be at 197 when #2 Kyven Gadson of ISU takes on 11th ranked Nick Heflin. Don’t let the ranking difference think this will be all Gadson. Heflin has a shot here without question. While Nick is yet to notch a signature win this year, he’s trending towards getting one soon. It could be this weekend. At 285 I like Tavanello a bit more than Smith, albeit not by much.

ISU’s path to victory is a win by Hall at 125, minimizing bonus in defeat, and winning 165, 174, 197 and 285. If they do that AND have a bonus point edge, perhaps we have our first upset?

That’s way too many ‘ifs’ for me, and I’ll take Ohio State 6-4.

Illinois v. Oklahoma
I’d love to see Patterson v. Delgado at 125, but fear we won’t see Patterson. Either way I’d have liked Delgado to win.

Another huge match will be at 133 when 11th ranked Zane Richards gets another test, this time against 7th ranked Cody Brewer. Brewers pace, scrambling and top game will likely be a bit too much for Zane here. Nick Lester will take on Steven Rodrigues in the battle of talented but inconsistent 41 pounders. I’ll take Rodrigues here, but if you feel strongly about either guy winning I’m callin’ you a liar!

Maple rolls at 149. I hope we see DeAngelis v. Brunson at 157. If we do I think I like DeAngelis to pull the upset. Illinois should win 165 with Jackson Morse, but Oklahoma will answer with Howe, Rutt and Larson at 174, 197 and 285 respectively.

Oklahoma advances, but not without taking a few blows.

Oregon State v. Cornell
Cornell is the favorite here and matches up well against Oregon State. Cornell will be likely winners in the lower weights with Nahshon Garrett at 125, Mark Grey at 133 and Mike Nevinger at 141. Things get interesting when Chris Villalonga will face Scott Sakaguchi at 149 (Chris beat Sakaguchi twice already this year at Vegas by a 3-2 and 4-1 score) and Brian Realbuto at 157 will face RJ Pena. The last time these two face Realbuto was the winner by fall. Pena has been solid lately, but I just think Realbuto keeps getting better.

Watch out for Dylan Palacio this weekend. This kid will be an All American eventually. He may not quite be ready this year, but his day is coming. Non stop action and great scrambling. His go-for-broke style can bite him at times but as he hones his style he’ll only become more dangerous. Gabe Dean should roll at 184 as well. Oregon State will snag the last two weights when Meeks beats Bennett and Dhesi beats Aiken-Phillips. Unfortunately, at that point I think it’ll be too little too late for the Beavers.

The path to a win for Oregon State is as follows: Avoid bonus (this will be very, very hard) and win at 149, 157, 174, 197 and 285 and somehow pickup bonus along the way.

Again, like I said before, too many ‘ifs.’ I got Cornell by a lot.

Semifinals

Minnesota v. Ohio State
This dual will be more interesting for the individual matchups it contains than following from a dual winner standpoint. It’s not an ideal matchup for the Buckeyes.

At 125 I suppose we will see Roberts v. Brancale, though I’m not quite sure of Brancale’s status. We are still trying to figure out what he is exactly, and I’m inclined to think Roberts is a bit better here.

Nick Roberts WBD Sam Brancale

3-0 Ohio State

Two top ten guys slug it out at 133 when #8 David Thorn of Minnesota takes on #10 Johnni DiJulius. JDJ is one of the toughest guys to predict, especially when he’s facing a new opponent. Thorn has been extremely consistent all year, but it only takes one mistake and JDJ dumps you for 4 points and that does it. I like Thorn here with a tremendous amount of caution. JDJ is coming off of a rough week 2 weeks ago where he fell to both Quiroga and Bruno.

David Thorn WBD Johnni DiJulius
3-3

One of the few guys to beat Logan Stieber in his college career is Chris Dardanes. These two will square off in this dual. I haven’t liked what I’ve seen out of Dardanes recently. I don’t know if he’s not transitioning too well to the move up, but he hasn’t quite been the same. He does have a few very impressive wins, however. I like Logan to run it up here, and even though Dardanes has beaten him before, I like Logan to pour it on when he gets on top.

Logan Stieber WMD Chris Dardanes

7-3 Ohio State

Gotta like Nick Dardanes over Ian Paddock here. Paddock is a really tough dude, but Dardanes has been a rock this year. I see him getting to the legs, finishing and able to get out on bottom.

Nick Dardanes WBD Ian Paddock

7-6 Ohio State

Dylan Ness should run away with this one. A fall is definitely possible, but with precious team points on the line, perhaps Randy Languis wrestles a very conservative match to avoid going where Ness can pin him. I’ll split the difference and go major decision, though a fall is definitely possible.

Dylan Ness WMD Randy Languis

10-7 Minnesota

It won’t be a high scoring affair at 165, but I think Zilverberg wins the few key positions and scrambles to beat Joe Grandominico. Look for a nice ride from Zilverberg to be the difference here.

13-7 Minnesota

Mark Martin is an up and comer, but he’s not ready for Storley. Still, I don’t see Martin getting blown out. Storley gets a few takedowns and rides, but isn’t able to get the bonus point.

Logan Storley WBD Mark Martin

16-7 Minnesota

Steinhaus v. Courts could be a very exciting match at 184. Steinhaus looked alright in defeat against Ed Ruth. He’s working his way back into elite shape and I think that shape will be what separates he and Courts. I’ve seen Steinhaus time and time again find ways to win tough matches late.

Kevin may not need any late match heroics, in fact I’d be surprised to see them. However, just know Steinhaus can always pour it on at the end. I think Steinhaus gives Courts some serious trouble from top. Look for a lopsided decision here.

Kevin Steinhaus WBD Kenny Courts

20-7 Minnesota

#1 Scott Schiller is looking to rebound off his loss to Morgan McIntosh. He’ll have a fight on his hands against #11 Nick Heflin. I think this match will be quite close because Heflin does not take many attacks. We’ve seen Schiller thrive off of re-attacks, so Heflin staying in position and hand fighting will likely keep him in the match, although ultimately I think it’s Schiller by a few.

Scott Schiller WBD Nick Heflin

23-7 Minnesota

Nelson will beat Nick Tavanello with no issue here.

26-7 Minnesota

Oklahoma v. Cornell
It’s always tough to predict matches when you don’t know the status of individuals health.

Regardless at 125 I like Nahshon, the question is how much? I think a fall is likely if we don’t see Patterson (and I don’t believe we will). So Cornell jumps out to a big lead early here.

Nahshon Garrett WBF Sean Williams

6-0 Cornell

133 is one of the premier matches of this dual and I really like Brewer here. I’ve loved Brewer for awhile. I think Brewer finds a way and has more ways he can beat you. I do think Grey could present some problems for Brewer on top.

Give me Brewer by a hair.

Cody Brewer WBD Mark Grey

6-3 Cornell

Mike Nevinger hasn’t set the world on fire, but I don’t see him losing to Lester here. I think he’ll be too much in the scrambles and on top.

Mike Nevinger WBD Nick Lester

9-3 Cornell

Maple should have no issue with Villalonga. Chris can’t match Maple athletically. Villalonga has continued to improve, but it was 6-1 at Vegas and I don’t see much changing.
Kendric Maple WBD Chris Villalonga

9-6 Cornell

At 157 I think whether we see DeAngelis or not, I like Realbuto comfortably. Brian just has too much offense and his motor is ridiculous. Potential bonus point match here.

Brian Realbuto WBD Justin DeAngelis

12-6 Cornell

Dylan Palacio should have no issue with Glass. Too much offense here. Not enough for Glass.

Dylan Palacio WBD Clark Glass

15-6 Cornell

Andrew Howe runs away with this one against Duke Pickett. TD and release til he gets the major.

Andrew Howe WMD Duke Pickett

15-10 Cornell

Will Howe bump up for Dean!? Heres hoping!? I’m not sure what to predict here. If Dean faces someone other than Howe, I like a fall for Cornell. If Howe bumps, give me Howe in what will be a complete and utter brawl in every sense of the word.

Gabe Dean WBF Oklahoma 184

OR

Andrew Howe WBD Gabe Dean

21-10 Cornell

Rutt should have little issue taking out Jace Bennett. I don’t expect bonus, however.

Travis Rutt WBD Jace Bennett

21-13 Cornell

Ross Larson should be a slight favorite here for Oklahoma over Jacob Aiken-Phillips. I like a close win here for Larson

Ross Larson WBD Jacob Aiken-Phillips

21-16 Cornell

Finals

Minnesota v. Cornell
So I think the seeds hold here and we get the 1 v. 2 matchup. A lot of people may think it’s Minnesota by a mile, but I’m not so sure. To the matchups!

125-#1 Nahshon Garrett-Cornell v. #19 Sam Brancale-Minnesota
This will be the first meeting between the two, and I’m expecting Nashon by a mile. Anything short of a bonus point win would be a letdown for the Big Red. I’ll predict a major decision here. Nahshon is very complete. Great attacks, amazing on top and very hard to ride. Nahshon won’t engage in the ties Brancale needs to pull one of his big moves.

Nahshon Garrett WMD Sam Brancale

4-0 Cornell

133 #13 Mark Grey-Cornell v. #8 David Thorn-Minnesota
Great match here. These 133’s are going to beat each other up all weekend. I think Thorn is the favorite here. He’s a bit more battle tested and has been looking consistently quite solid. Do not be fooled, Grey can win this match. I think he’s better on the mat, and his scrambling ability could present a problem for Grey. The question is health for Grey. He’s missed some time and lost to Dellefave of Rutgers. I’m playing it safe and giving Thorn the decision. Very little confidence in this one.

David Thorn WBD Mark Grey

4-3 Cornell

141 #10 Mike Nevinger-Cornell v. #4 Chris Dardanes-Minnesota
Nevinger owns Dardanes right? Well, he’s owned big brother Nick historically (4-0 over their last few meetings). Nick never could solve Nevingers top game, though he’d been close. Chris and Nick are not carbon copies, but they share some common vices. Among their chief issues is bottom wrestling. If Chris can get the takedown and avoid the mat all together, this is a great strategy for Dardanes. However, Nevinger is stingy on his feet and an adept scrambler. In a vacuum, all things being equal and both wrestlers healthy this is a win for Nevinger. However, how healthy is Nevinger right now? He’s been good the last few matches. I think Nevinger gets the win here and gets the sweat rolling for Gopher fans.

Mike Nevinger WBD Chris Dardanes

7-3 Cornell

149 #9 Chris Villalonga-Cornell v. #2 Nick Dardanes-Minnesota
Another great matchup. I think Nick is probably relieved he won’t have to face Nevinger again. I like this matchup for Dardanes. I don’t think Villalonga has the top game to give Dardanes the problems Nevinger has. I think Nick this is a razor tight match, and Villalonga can certainly pull an upset here. I think I like Villalonga here. His ranking is a bit misleading. His only actual loss is to Maple. His problem is he just hasn’t notched an elite win outside of Sakaguchi. I think he gets one here. He’s a better scrambler and mat wrestler, and Dardanes is a bit predictable on his feet. Maybe Nick gets the takedown and seals it, but I think Villalonga just has more ways to beat you.

Chris Villalonga WBD Nick dardanes

10-3 Cornell

157 #8 Brian Realbuto-Cornell v. #6 Dylan Ness-Minnesota
I mean who really knows? I expect fireworks for 7 minutes here (or until someone gets stuck). I think the Cornell coaching staff will have Realbuto ready and Ness well scouted. Now that may not matter one bit considering the unpredictable nature of Dylan Ness. We’ve seen Ness struggle with guys who can scramble, and he can be ridden (until he elevators you). I think this is a nice matchup for Realbuto. I’m more excited for this match than any other. It’s going to be great. I’m calling another upset here. Watch Ness pin him in 30 seconds now.

Brian Realbuto WBD Dylan Ness

13-3 Cornell

165 #14 Dylan Palacio-Cornell v. Danny Zilverberg-Minnesota
Talk about a style contrast. Palacio throws caution to the wind, Zilverberg lets everything come to him. A lot is hinging on this match. Palacio will need to get out on bottom quickly to get the win. If Zilverberg gets the counter TD early and a rideout, it’s big trouble for Palacio. If he can get the scores and keep going, I like him to win here. this is a close one for sure and either result should surprise nobody. Give me Palacio by a few.

Dylan Palacio WBD Danny Zilverberg

16-3 Cornell

174-Duke Pickett-Cornell v. #5 Logan Storley-Minnesota
Storely is obviously a huge favorite, but the margin of victory is a very interesting topic. Pickett is yet to lose by bonus points this year. That being said, he’s yet to face anyone resembling the caliber of Storley. I think Pickett comes out looking to hang on, but Storley just narrowly gets the major.

Logan Storley WMD Duke Pickett

16-7 Cornell

184-#3 Gabe Dean-Cornell v. #7 Kevin Steinhaus-Minnesota
Huge match here. Dean won the early one in the Scuffle semi’s. Steinhaus wasn’t really on his game at the Scuffle, but Dean has just been tremendous this year. I’ll take Gabe in the rematch by a hair. I think he can handf ight with Steinhaus and won’t struggle on the mat when Steinhaus gets on top. I love this kids mindset and physicality.

Gabe Dean WBD Kevin Steinhaus

19-7 Cornell

197-Jace Bennett-Cornell v. #1 Scott Schiller-Minnesota
First meeting between these two and you gotta figure Schiller comes out looking for big points. Bennett is huge, but doesn’t hold position well enough. I think this match is tailor-made for Schiller to live on his legs. I think this is a bonus win for Schiller.

Scott Schiller WMD Jace Bennett

19-10 Cornell

285-Jacob Aiken-Phillips-Cornell v. #5 Tony Nelson-Cornell
I’m not going to pretend to be well versed on the stylings of Jacob Aiken-Phillips, but I do know his results. He’s been bonused aplenty including once by Tony Nelson who pinned him at the Scuffle. I think it’s a bonus opportunity, but predicting what sort is difficult. I think Nelson beats him up pretty good but maybe Aiken-Phillips avoids the fall this time around?

Tony Nelson WMD Jacob Aiken-Phillips

19-14 Cornell

Holy cow, coming into this article I never thought I’d have Cornell as the winner, but as I look closer and closer at the matches, and most specificially the matchups, I like Cornell.

Conceivably Minnesota can win 9 matches without pulling a real mind blowing upset. A Minnesota win at 133, 141, 149, 157, 165, 174, 184, 197 and 285 shouldn’t cause anyone to bat an eye. Including me. That’s how close these two really are.

By the same token Cornell could win 7: 125, 133, 141, 149, 157, 165 and 184. So numerically my prediction could look way off and Minnesota could run away with it, but these matches are going to be really close, and Cornell as a team matches up well in this dual. So even if Minnesota winds up winning, I won’t feel like my evaluation was terrible, rather that the close matches went contrary to how I thought. Don’t you dare miss this!