Ben Askren 3:2 favorite over Quentin Wright
Jordan Oliver 3:1 favorite over Lance Palmer
Nick Simmons 7:6 favorite over Stephan Abas
Jay Borschel 4:1 favorite over Aaron Simpson

Vegas Odds

Christian Pyles

What’s Vegas without some odds?

AGON is going down October 27^th and here are the lines for the fights.  I'm going to provide some analysis as to what I think the bests bets are for these matches.

Feel free to join the conversation below!  And don't you dare miss seeing the event LIVE on Flowrestling! 

 
Jordan Oliver 3:1 favorite over Lance Palmer

The bet to make:

I think they got these odds just about right.  I think Oliver is a comfortable favorite here, and I think I'd bet him to win, but in my opinion this may be the bet to avoid.  I don't see that huge of a payoff with Oliver considering the odds you'd have to lay to pick him.  Nor do I see Palmer as a significant enough underdog (odds wise) to merit a bet for him.  

Jordan comes in hot off his 2^nd NCAA championship.  He continues to train year round in Stillwater with the hopes of World and Olympic Titles.  Palmer has been training MMA exclusively since his graduation from Ohio State.  We feel that even if both were in their wrestling primes (Jordan is, Palmer isn’t) Oliver would still be the favorite.  Combine his full time wrestling focus and Palmers hand in a few styles we think Oliver will have the edge this match from neutral and won’t struggle with Lance’s top game.  30 seconds on top probably won’t be enough time for Lance to get his legs in and turn. 

  

Nick Simmons 7:6 favorite over Stephen Abas

The bet to make:

I think the bet to make is Simmons.  I think he's a way bigger favorite here than the odds indicate.  I like a blow out match here for a variety of reasons.  Take Simmons all the way to the bank.

Simmons is still in the midst of his wrestling prime and is competing on the Senior level.  He’s just 2 years removed from placing 5^th in worlds.  While his Freestyle credentials are lacking compared to Abas, time is still undefeated.  Abas was probably in his wrestling prime in 2004.  He retired in 2008.  Now 5 years removed from his retirement, we can’t expect him to be able to compete with someone who is A) World Class and B) Still in his athletic prime.  Simmons for 9 minutes will wear out the legendary lightweight.  Simmons top game will be problematic as well. 

 

Jay Borschel 4:1 favorite over Aaron Simpson

The bet to make:

The safe bet here is Borschel.  I like him comfortably here.  Yeah, it's pretty fat odds for Borschel, but I'm struggling to find the scenario where Simpson wins.  So bet him for a modest gain.

We view this similar to the JO/Palmer match up.  Two guys who, in their primes would have been a dream match, but right now the primes are not lining up.  orschel would probably be a slight favorite in a match if they both wrestled at their best.  But Borschel continues to keep himself involved with the sport as an assistant coach at Northwestern University.  He is not an active competitor like Oliver is, so the question  of how battle tested he may be is legitimate.  That being said, we think Jay Bo’s offense is underrated and view him as the favorite in this spot.

 

Ben Askren 3:2 favorite over Quentin Wright

The bet to make:

Tough call here.  For my money, Askren is a really safe play.  There are many who think Askren is the favorite here.  In my mind, the bet you make is the guy you think wins.  If you think Askren is the guy (as I do) that's the bet to make.  If I were setting the lines, I'd say 4:1 or 5:1 Askren.  So in my mind, the bet is Askren.  If you think this line is junk and Quentin will win, that's obviously good value, I simply disagree.

Throw all conventionality out when it comes to Ben Askren, including making odds.  Is Quentin Wright bigger?  Yes.  Is Quentin Wright explosive? Yes.  Have explosive athletes been problematic for Ben historically? Yes.  Is Quentin actively training to wrestle at a high level?  Yes.    All that being said, Askren is the favorite in this match.  The 9 minute match favors the man whom I’ve never seen show a sign of fatigue.   The 9 minute match favors the man who scored at nearly unprecedented rates in his college career.  Askren is no stranger to an exhibition match against a wrestler in the prime of his career (we all recall the beating he put on Herbert the year Jake made the Olympics).  Askren is an extremely cerebral wrestler, he’s not going to lock up with Quentin, he’ll dive on a crappy single leg, and find a way to convert it to points.  Quentin is a great bottom wrestler, so we’re reluctant to predict much nearfall, but ruling it out would be foolish on our part.  Quentin’s shot at this match is to launch him.  We don’t see Askren engaging in those ties, and we see Askren victorious.  Score one for the fighters.

 

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