CP's Superdual Breakdown: Hawks Visit Illini
Christian Pyles, College Analyst

Another nice dual between two tough teams. Illinois will be looking to respond after getting blanked by Penn State whom Iowa beat last Friday in one of the most exciting duals in awhile.  We won’t see a full strength Illinois team as it looks like BJ Futrell will be out for awhile and Pat Walker is out for the season.  This dual will still feature a few marquee match ups that the wrestling world must pay attention to.  None as pivotal as the 125 match that will likely start the dual.

This dual meet will be broadcast LIVE on the Big Ten Network and can also be seen live on BTN2go.com on smartphones and tablets

 

*Iowa Wrestler Listed First

125: #1 Matt McDonough v. #5 Jesse Delgado

The Big 10 powers that be must have wanted to give the triangle of McDonough, Megaludis and Delgado a brutal week.  All three will have wrestled each other within a week.  McDonough was able to hold serve in a tight match against Nico.  Nico came from behind to pin Delgado 2 days later.  Delgado has the opportunity to throw the rankings on their head if he can notch a win here. 

McDonough has a 2-1 record against Jesse, but there’s not one wrestler that poses as many issues for McDonough as Delgado does.  Jesse’s strategy is about a large volume of neutral attempts.  He darts from outside on singles and basically scores or gets stalemated.  He has a noticeable speed advantage against most opponents and that includes McDonough.  Wrestling someone quicker than him is not uncharted waters for McDonough, but what does present the challenge is that Delgado can get on shots and McDonough can’t simply smash him into the mat and go behind.  Delgado can hang tough in those positions and hold on without giving up the two. 

Delgado did what McDonough couldn’t do to Megaludis that Friday night: take him down.  I have a hard time making this call, but I have seen Delgado struggle at times to hold on to his leads and close out matches.  Match management is a strength of McDonough’s and I see him eeking out a super tight match that will have Hawkeye fans nervous for the majority of the bout.  I don’t see the mat being much of a factor here.  It’s possible McDonough get’s a key ride out or riding time point, but  I don’t think I’d predict it.  In my opinion McDonough has been playing with fire a bit wrestling quite a few close matches of late.  Giving up the early takedown wouldn’t be detrimental for McD, but it would make for a tough battle back, especially given his recent struggles to get to legs against the upper echelon competitors.  McD’s neutral counters have been his main source of offense, and Delgado has shown he can scramble with McDonough. 

Obviously, I’ve thought about this bout for awhile now, and I’ll be very interested to see the strategy McDonough employs.

Matt McDonough WBD Jesse Delgado

3-0 Iowa 

133: #2 Tony Ramos v. #12 Daryl Thomas

Daryl Thomas has not convinced me yet that his impressive major over Chris Dardanes was much more than a fluke at this point.  He’s since been pinned by Stieber in the first period and lost 8-6 to Jordan Conaway.  While Thomas has great quick strike ability, it remains to be seen if he can maintain pace and wrestle defensively with the 133 elite. 

Meanwhile Tony Ramos has been on an utter tear all year.  He’s been much the same guy as last year with perhaps a little more emphasis on turns (i.e. chin and arm).  He just dominated someone (Conaway) who beat Thomas 8-6.  I have little reason to believe Tony will struggle in this spot.  I see him wearing Thomas out and earning the major decision in this spot.  I think he might only get a takedown or two early, but will pour it on late with his pace, hand fighting and great defense.  Thomas could get a takedown, but even with that I don’t see him having enough to keep Tony at bay. 

Tony Ramos MD Daryl Thomas

7-0 Iowa

#9 Mark Ballweg v. Stephen Rodrigues

Too bad we won’t see Futrell in this spot.  Always hate to see injuries derail a guys season, but when it’s a Senior year, all we can do is hope BJ get’s a quick recovery and a shot at conferences and NCAA’s. 

As it stands the Illini will probably send out Stephen Rodrigues.  Rodrigues is a tough and competent back up, but not on the level of Futrell obviously.  They have a recent common opponent in Bryan Pearsall.  Ballweg majored Pearsall and Rodrigues lost 2-0.  Ballweg has been bonus minded of late and I think this is enough of a mismatch that Ballweg will get bonus again. 

Mark has been very impressive lately, though he has always been a solid bonus point getter whenever he’s had spot duty for the hawks.  Strong, quick and a good scrambler I see Ballweg getting to legs on a few occasions and scoring takedowns in addition to a counter takedown.  A turn from Ballweg would not surprise me either.  Through some combination of those scores I see Mark compiling enough points for the major.

Mark Ballweg MD Stephen Rodriguez

11-0 Iowa

149: Mike Kelly v. Caleb Irvin

Two unranked guys here, but still a match with true meaning.  Kelly needs to produce for the Hawkeyes to get point optimal point production for March.  Irvin needs to prove his dominating win over Ness was not a flash in the pan, but rather an indicator of things to come. 

The Illini will look for unsung wrestlers to step up in light of Futrell’s absence.  Irvin could be that guy.  He has displayed the ability to execute low shots as well as some nice top work with leg turks.  Kelly is yet to show he is much more than the guy who can keep it close with good wrestlers.  I like Irvin in this spot, but somewhat close.  Common opponent might suggest Caleb could earn bonus here, but I don’t see it that way.  Illinois gets on the board with a solid win from Irvin.

Caleb Irvin WBD Mike Kelly

11-3 Iowa

#1 Derek St. John v. Matt Nora

Not much to say here.  St. John has dominated guys who have dominated Nora. Nora to this point has been tough to bonus.  Of his 9 losses, he has only been bonused on one occasion: a major decision to Dylan Alton last week.  I’d say it’s a 50-50 proposition whether St. John gets the major.  This match won’t be close and St. John will be relatively unchallenged.  I think this victory will be in the 5-10 point range.  I’ll give it to him by decision here, but don’t feel especially confident.

Derek St. John WBD Matt Nora

14-3 Iowa

165: #14 Nick Moore v. #7 Conrad Polz

An upset minded Conrad Polz gave reigning Hodge Trophy winner David Taylor a real scare last week, nearly pinning the Nittany Lion. Conrad has had a nice year for himself, losing only 4 times so far.  When you compare common opponents between these two, you know this should be a close match.  Conrad has split with Mike Moreno, whom Moore beat.  Conrad had a tight match with Cody Yohn, whom Nick Moore handled.  Polz gave Taylor much more resistance than Moore was able to last week.  I consider this to be in the “toss up” category.  I lean toward Polz since I believe he brings the neutral skills, specifically penetrating and finishing, that are necessary to beat Nick Moore. 

Moore has some big strong hips, and a decent scrambling game, but can be slow footed at times.  I see Polz wining a close one.  It could be a methodical one takedown match, or both guys could open up and put up some more points.  Either way I see Conrad as the favorite and the guy who will score a point or two more than Moore.  This is a big spot for Nick Moore to show that his major over Yohn was an indication of bigger things to come.  For right now, I think it speaks more to the inconsistency of Cody Yohn.   Still Moore is a tough kid and has made strides already this year.   That progress keeps him in the match with the talented All American Polz.

Conrad Polz WBD Nick Moore

14-6 Illinois

174: #3 Mike Evans v. #8 Jordan Blanton

Evans' teammate Ethen Lofthouse has a great track record against Jordan Blanton, owning the series against the Illinois wrestler.  While Evans has been great up at 174, you wonder what stylistic differences between the two will or won’t translate into this match.  Blanton has looked good this year, but has taken some lumps as well.  Losses to Micah Barnes and Nate Brown were particularly puzzling results.  He gave Storley a real run and was on pace to win until Storley had yet another clutch moment and stormed back to victory.  Both guys like to hand fight and battle (seems to be a common theme at 174). 

Blanton could throw a real wrench in Big 10 seeding’s by pulling off the victory here.  I don’t foresee the mat being a factor here as Evans has struggled to put rides on his tougher competition and top is not a particular strength for Blanton either against tougher competition.  I see Evans getting the necessary takedowns and using his motor to get the decision in this spot.  Blanton is not impervious to giving up some big numbers, but I don’t see it in this spot.  1 to 2 takedowns does it for Evans who has wins over Heflin, Brown and Kokesh (last year by TF) who all beat Blanton this season.  Definitely potential for upset here, no doubt. 

Mike Evans WBD Jordan Blanton

17-6

184: #15 Ethen Lofthouse v. #18 Tony Dallago

Some question as to who the Hawkeyes will send out here.  Brands seemed to indicate that last week’s benching was a message sent to Ethen Lofthouse.  Which suggests that it was a warning, but that it's still Ethen’s spot to lose.  Whoever the Hawkeyes send will have their hands full with Tony Dallago.  Between these three wrestlers it has been rough seas throughout much of the year with each having some difficult and inconsistent moments. 

This is among the tougher matches to predict in my estimation.  Dallago’s loss at the hands of Luke Sheridan is probably among the most confusing results.  So we are not getting two guys who are clicking on all cylinders at this point.  Dallago had a win over Gambrall last year, which also indicates that Gambrall probably wouldn’t get the nod.  Dallago is scrambly and dangerous at times, but which also contributes to his inconsistency. 

I believe Ethen’s fundamental style wins out and earns a few takedowns here.  I’m envisioning Ethen coming out with more fire and intensity after a loss to Steinhaus where he looked content to simply lose and put forth no effort to earn takedowns.  Ethen is a fairly skilled finisher when he get’s to legs even against good counter wrestlers like Dallago.  This one may not feature two elite guys, but they are tough and have much to prove to their coaches.  That alone will make this match interesting.  I like Ethen by a takedown or so.

Ethen Lofthouse WBD Tony Dallago

20-6 Iowa

197: #19 Nathan Burak v. #15 Mario Gonzalez

I’m excited for this one.  Reigning Big 10 champion Gonzalez looks to prove he is not a flash-in-the-pan wrestler.  He has had his difficulties so far this year.  None more confusing than his loss at the hands of unranked 184 lber Kenny Courts (who is a stud, but not quite adapted to D1 wrestling as of yet) last week.  

Common opponents suggest a close match.  Both had close matches with Gadson, and Schiller.  Gonzalez kept it a bit closer with Wright than Burak was able to.  Since his rough start, Burak has been fairly consistent.  You know what you’re getting from him.  I think he comes in with a strength advantage over Gonzalez, but technically and athletically I believe Gonzalez to be superior.  In a vacuum, both wrestlers on their best day, I’d say Mario is the guy to beat here.  It’s simply difficult to know which version of Gonzalez we will see.    

I’ll reluctantly choose Gonzalez in this spot. He has gotten more mat time lately, which should help his cause as he was very rusty early in the year (in my estimation).  Burak’s strength and defense keep this match close, but Gonzalez high end talent wins out this time around.

Mario Gonzalez WBD Nathan Burak

20-9 Iowa

285: #7 Bobby Telford v. Chris Lopez

Tough spot for Lopez here. Walker was wrestling at a nice clip before his season ended due to injury.  Lopez has been tough his last few duals facing Nelson, Chalfant, Capone and Gingrich and holding each to a regular decision. 

Telford has been looking solid lately.  I don’t see an opportunity for an upset here, nor do I expect bonus points.  Should be a nice controlled victory for Telford where he never finds himself in too much danger.  Pay attention to Telford’s leg attacks.  They are a skill that was rarely seen last year or the beginnings of this season, but a skill he has been working to use more often lately.  His ability to score of his own offense(outside of slide bys, or countering his opponents shots) will tell the tale for the end of his season.  If he can get those takedowns he could be looking at another top 5 finish.  If he attempts to simply rely on the bad shots of his opponents  he could find himself off the podium this year.  

Bobby Telford  WBD Chris Lopez

Final Score: 23-9 Iowa

The last few weeks match ups might have spoiled wrestling fans a bit, but this is a good dual.  Great coaching, hustle and top notch technique will be featured in each match.   Tune in Friday (unless you’re coaching a post season tournament, in which case good luck) and watch.