2024 NCAA Championships Watch Party

2024 NCAA Wrestling Championship Preview & Predictions - 197 Pounds

2024 NCAA Wrestling Championship Preview & Predictions - 197 Pounds

A full preview, with predictions, for the 197-pound weight class at the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships.

Mar 16, 2024 by Andrew Spey
2024 NCAA Wrestling Championship Preview & Predictions - 197 Pounds

It's the most wonderful time of the year! March Matness! Tourney Time! And whereas our NCAA basketball brethren most make due with one puny bracket, we of the wrestling community celebrate with ten beautiful double elimination brackets. 

For more NCAA content, check this out. There is an absurd amount. I couldn't possibly list it all, just click and start browsing. 

And here are those wonderful brackets for your perusal before we properly dig into the 197-pound division. 

Just scroll through in the window below, they're all there!


The NCAA Championship 197-Pound bracket is headlined by two undefeated, Hodge Trophy contending seniors, Aaron Brooks and Trent Hidlay. We'll take a longer look at that duo below, followed by other contenders, sleepers and landmines, then cap things off with some humble predictions. 

Seeds are in parentheses after each wrestler's school. Rankings are from the latest national top 33

The Favorites

#1 Aaron Brooks, Penn State (1)

#2 Trent Hidlay, NC State (2)

Brooks is a three-time national champ and one of the leading contenders to win the 2024 Hodge Trophy, college wrestling's Heisman Award. He has just three losses in his five-year NCAA career.

The Nittany Lion senior has been bonusing opponents all season long, including an 11-2 major decision of 2023 NCAA finalist Tanner Sloan at the NWCA All-Star Classic in November. 

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Brooks also has a history with his top contender for the 197-pound crown, Trent Hidlay. Both bumped up to 197 this offseason after competing at 184 for the last three seasons. Hidlay is, like Brooks, a three-time All-American who was unable to compete in the 2020 NCAA Championships because of the stupid novel coronavirus. They both grew up not too far from each other, with Brooks being from Western Maryland and Hidlay calling central Pennsylvania home. 

They also have impressive freestyle resumes as well. Brooks is a U17 champ in 2017, a U20 silver medalist in 2018, and a U23 gold medalist in 2023. Hidlay has two age-level medals to his name and recently won the 2023 Bill Farrell Memorial in New York City. 

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Brooks, however, has gotten the better of Hidlay over the last few seasons, owning a 3-0 record over Trent, with all three wins coming in the NCAA championships. Their rivalry even goes back to high school, where Brooks was victorious in the finals of Fargo. 

Will this be the year Hidlay finally defeats his nemesis and climbs to the top of the NCAA podium for the first time? It would be quite the story if he did!

The Contenders

#3 Tanner Sloan, South Dakota State (3)

#4 Michael Beard, Lehigh (4)

#5 Jacob Cardenas, Cornell (5)

#6 Lou DePrez, Binghamton (6)

#7 Rocky Elam, Missouri (12)

#8 Stephen Buchanan, Oklahoma (8)

#9 Stephen Little, Little Rock (9)

#10 Zach Glazier, Iowa (7)

#11 Silad Allred, Nebraska (10)

#12 Jaxon Smith, Maryland (11)

The rankings and seeds lineup (perhaps surprisingly) closely at 197. Everyone in the top 12 of the rankings is also in the top 12 of the seeds, making for a neat dozen favorites + contenders. 

Tanner Sloan has the highest career NCAA finish of the #3 through #12 ranked and seeded contenders, having reached the finals of the 2023 NCAAs, where he was defeated by Pitt's Nino Bonaccorsi. Sloan was also runner-up in the 2022 U23 world championships in freestyle. 

A trio of EIWA wrestlers (at least they are all in the EIWA for one more week, after which Cornell and the rest of the Ivies split and form their own wrestling conference), are next on the list. Beard beat Cardnenas in the 2024 EIWA finals, 6-3, while Cardenas beat DePrez 4-1 in the semifinals. All three have earned All-American status in the past. 

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Missouri's Rocky Elam has missed some time this season due to injuries, though he is still hoping to continue his march up the podium, having finished, 5th, 4th and 3rd at his three previous trips to the NCAAs. The Missouri native has one more year of eligibility after this season, and can still have a career that goes 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, which I think would be cool. 

Buchanan is a two-time All-American who transferred from Wyoming to Oklahoma after the 2022 season. He has one more year of eligibility after this championship. 

Stephen Little and Zach Glazier are both at their first NCAA tournament. Little is a redshirt freshman from Kentucky, helping write the history of the Little Rock Trojans, a program in its 5th year of existence. Glazier, conversely, is part of the Hawkeyes, one of the most storied programs in NCAA wrestling history. He's wrestling in his first postseason in his fifth season in Iowa City.

Two more Big Ten contenders round out our list. Both Allred and Smith are redshirt sophomores who finished in the bloodround last season. 

Sleepers & Landmines 

#14 Mac Stout, Pittsburgh (21)

#23 Justin Rademacher, Oregon State (29) 

#29 Ben Smith, Cleveland State (25) MAC Champ

Stout received a pretty tough seed for a guy whose worst loss this season was to #16 ranked and #15 seed Max Shaw. He'll be trouble for anyone in the bracket. 

Rademacher is a freshman straight outta West Linn, Oregon who stayed home for college and is looking to establish himself as a perennial contender. Ben Smith is a MAC champ looking to reach the podium in his third trip to the NCAAs in his last season of eligibility. 

Potential Matchups to Watch

#7 Rocky Elam vs #14 Mac Stout is an incredible matchup in the first round of any tournament, let alone the national championships. 

Another first-round bout to keep an eye on is #19 Wyatt Volker of UNI vs Rutgers' #21 John Poznanski. Poz is a former 4th placer who's received the #14 seed. 

The second round could see all sorts of massive matchups. Little and Buchanan could be the best #8 vs #9 bout of the tournament. Cardenas and Elam are two 2023 All-Americans who could face off in the second round. Jaxon Smith vs Lou DePrez and Zach Glazier vs Silas Allred are two likely round 2 bouts where every competitor is of All-American caliber. 

Predictions

1) Aaron Brooks, Penn State

2) Trent Hidlay, NC State

3) Tanner Sloan, South Dakota State

4) Rocky Elam, Missouri

5) Michael Beard, Lehigh

6) Jacob Cardenas, Cornell

7) Lou DePrez, Binghamton

8) Stephen Buchanan, Oklahoma

R12) Silas Allred, Nebraska

R12) Jaxon Smith, Maryland

R12) Zach Glazier, Iowa

R12) Stephen Little, Little Rock 

I'm sticking with chalk for the top seeds, with Brooks once again prevailing over Hidlay. And although I would be mildly surprised, I would not be shocked to see Hidlay to beat Brooks for the first time in his collegiate career. One thing I would be shocked by, though, is if neither wrestler tries setting up their offense with underhooks. 

Another match where I could see my pick going wrong is Hidlay over Sloan in the semis. Sloan is a big 197-pounder and extremely tough. He could very well upend Hidlay's planned NCAA finals showdown with Brooks. 

As it is, I have Sloan taking third with Elam falling in the third-place bout. Then it's an all-EIWA party for the next three placements. I have Beard beating Cardenas in both the quarterfinals and the fifth-place bout, but when you wrestle someone that many times and are that close in ability, often you get different results once or twice, so don't expect that outcome to playout as I predicted. 

Then it's Buchanan at 8th for the second time in his career, and then three Big Ten wrestlers in the bloodround. As I have it, Brooks is the only Big Tenner in the top 8, although the conference could very well show up and prove me wrong by filling half the podium spots.

And that's what predictions from the so-called wrestling media are all about: getting proven hilariously wrong when it comes time for the actual wrestling to take place. We'll see it all unfold in a week. Let's all enjoy seeing just how wrong I can be!