Zahid Valencia, Superfrosh: 174-Pound NCAA Preview

Zahid Valencia, Superfrosh: 174-Pound NCAA Preview

Now that we have our sweet, sweet brackets for the NCAA Wrestling Championships, it's time to take a closer look at the weight classes in St. Louis on March 16. We start our analysis of the upper weights now with look at 174.

Mar 13, 2017 by Andrew Spey
Zahid Valencia, Superfrosh: 174-Pound NCAA Preview
NCAA Wrestling Archived Match Videos

Now that we have our sweet, sweet brackets for the NCAA Wrestling Championships, it's time to take a closer look at the weight classes. We're doing a deep dive into each division, rolling out previews one at a time, so you can pour over and digest everything before the first whistle in St. Louis on March 16.

We start our analysis of the upper weights now with look at 174.

Last year's final featured one of the more entertaining bouts of the tournament, which saw 11th-seeded Ohio State freshman Myles Martin upset the No. 1 seed, Bo Nickal, 11-9. Nickal beat Myles in the three other times they faced each other in the 2015-16 season. Both wrestlers are keeping the drama going at 184 this season, creating an opportunity for two new finalists at 174.

Enter freshman phenom Zahid Valencia. Zahid, and his brother, Anthony, the No. 7 seed at 165, arrived at Arizona State two years ago with high expectations. After successful redshirt years, both brothers are delivering on the mat, but it's the younger Zahid who has really shined, entering his first NCAA tournament undefeated and with the No. 1 seed.

Four of last year's All-Americans return at 174, and 165's third-place finisher, Ohio State's Bo Jordan, bumps up a weight class. So Valencia will have plenty of challengers with whom to contend.

We'll look at those title contenders next, followed by dark horses, and a full set of predictions and analysis (2017 NCAA tournament seeds in parentheses).


Title Contenders

(1) Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
(2) Brian Realbuto, Cornell
(3) Bo Jordan, Ohio State
(4) Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
(5) Mark Hall, Penn State
(6) Ryan Preisch, Lehigh

It didn't take long for Valencia to establish himself as a title contender. He won the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational in early December over two time All-American Brian Realbuto of Cornell. Valencia keep a clean record all year long and hasn't dropped a match since last year's Midlands tournament, which he wrestled up at 184.

Watch ZMoney Valencia cruise to victory over Logan Gruszka at the Midlands Tournament:
A senior, Realbuto only has the one loss to Valencia this season. The New York native cemented his No. 2 seed when he edged Bo Jordan, then the top-ranked 174-pounder, in a dual meet late this season. Jordan is a threat not to be taken lightly, however. The Buckeyes junior has two third-place finishes in two attempts and will look to improve on that result this year.

Virginia Tech junior Zach Epperly has but a solitary loss on the year, to Lehigh sophomore Ryan Preisch, in sudden victory. Preisch, meanwhile, has only taken losses from Realbuto, Penn State's Mark Hall, and Rutgers' Jordan Pagano.

Hall, a freshman, will also be in the mix. He has five wins over top 10 opponents this year. Hall also knows a thing or two about preforming when the lights are on, having won the UWW Junior World Championships last August.

Dark Horses

(13) Taylor Lujan, Northern Iowa
(US) David Kocer, South Dakota State
(US) Josef Johnson, Harvard

Talented Panthers freshman Taylor Lujan has the ability to compete with anyone in the weight class. His creative, funky style makes for appointment viewing whenever he steps on the mat.

Coming in at No. 14 in the Flo top 20, SD State junior David Kocer is the highest-ranked, unseeded wrestler in the weight class. He will be a dangerous opponent, as will Josef Johnson, one of Harvard's team captains, who's racked up 29 wins on the year.

Upset Special

Besides our dark horses, keep an eye out for Peter Galli of Stanford. Galli needed an at-large bid to make the field and has had an inconsistent season. But the same can be said for his first-round opponent, No. 14 seed Lelund Weatherspoon of Iowa State. If Galli is on his game, he could send Weatherspoon to the consolation bracket earlier than expected in this first-round battle of seniors.

Spey's Spredictions

  1. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
  2. Bo Jordan, Ohio State
  3. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
  4. Ryan Preisch, Lehigh
  5. Mark Hall, Penn State
  6. Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
  7. Kyle Crutchmer, Oklahoma State
  8. Myles Amine, Michigan
I think we'll see all chalk make it to the quarterfinals, with the exception of the eighth- and ninth-seeded wrestlers. Neither Michigan's Myles Amine nor North Carolina's Ethan Ramos have much in the way of truly elite wins this year, but I liked what I saw out of Amine in the Big Ten tournament. I think the Wolverines freshman keeps the momentum going at NCAAs.

Those quarterfinal matches are going to be a treat for every tournament viewer. I think the top three seeds are going to prevail, but that the true frosh Hall will get the better of Epperly.

In top semifinal, I see Valencia getting by Hall, in what is, in my opinion, one of the most anticipated potential matches of the tournament. No result would surprise me, but Valencia has been too fundamentally sound all year long for me to bet against him here.

In the other semifinal, I have BoJo getting revenge on Realbuto. Again, no result would surprise me, and Realbuto did look sharp while winning the EIWAs last week. Jordan, however, had a pretty spectacular Big Tens, taking out Hall in thrilling final match. It may come down to who has more energy left after their quarterfinals matches -- Jordan has to beat Preisch and Realbuto has to take out Kyle Crutchmer -- but I think BoJo uses his dad strength to power his way to the finals.

A BoJo versus Z Valencia final would be truely popcorn worthy. Valencia has been wrestling like a veteran wise beyond his years and has a scary combination of strength and speed for a redshirt freshman. I think Valencia outmaneuvers Jordan to become the first Sun Devils national champion since Anthony Robles and Bubba Jenkins each took home the grand prize in 2011.

Below you can see Valencia's skills on display for yourself, as Zahid beats last year's sixth-place finisher, Lelund Weatherspoon of Iowa State, by a major decision at this season's Midlands.


Down in the consolation bracket, we will find out if the Preisch is right for the Mountain Hawk's rematch with Hall. Only Bob Barker and maybe Drew Carey know the outcome as of right now, but I am going with the Lehigh sophomore to avenge his Southern Scuffle loss.

You can watch Hall's semifinal Scuffle victory in it's entirety, including the costly third-period mistake that got Preisch pinned, right here:

In the consolation finals, I think Realbuto makes it 3 for 3 on the season over Preisch. Realbuto will have to go through Epperly to make the third-place match, but I think the Cornell senior makes the most of his final season and wrestles to seed.

In the fifth-place match, I also think Hall wrestles to his seed, toppling Epperly in the process. Three losses would triple Epperly's total on the year, but his best win this season would probably be 11th-ranked Ethan Ramos, and the losses I'm predicting would all come at the hands of wrestlers ranked either fourth (Hall) or second (Realbuto).

That leaves the 7/8 match, where I think it will be Oklahoma State senior Kyle Crutchmer beating Michigan freshman Myles Amine.

There Will Be Bloodround

The 174 weight class will see yet another quartet of ridiculously talented wrestlers kept from becoming All-Americans by the merciless bloodround.

Epperly will end Northern Illinois redshirt senior Trace Engelkes' career, capping off a season that saw Engelkes exceed all reasonable expectations, regardless of whether or not he makes the podium.

Amine will keep Iowa senior Alex Meyer from matching last year's eighth-place finish. Crutchmer will survive UNI's Taylor Lujan, who will no doubt redeem himself in subsequent years. Finally, Preisch will stop Ethan Ramos from placing for the second straight year.

Think you can make better picks? There's a very good chance you can! Here's the 174 bracket. Let me know what you think, and enjoy the championship, wrestling fans!

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