149 NCAA Previews And Predictions

149-pound NCAA wrestling preview and predictions.

Oct 20, 2016 by Christian Pyles

It's a very different story jumping from 141 to 149. At 141, there are tons of questions in a weight filled with talent and parity. For 149, there's little discussion. It's all Zain Retherford, all the time.

Zain Retherford pinfalls Alec Pantaleo:

Title Contender:

Zain Retherford, Penn State

I can't in good conscience put another name down. Which name would I choose? Brandon Sorensen? He has been outscored 14-1 in two matches against Zain. Some people will put Mayes on this list too, but I can't wrap my mind around a guy who lost to Mike DePalma, Jake Sueflohn, and Anthony Collica last year beating someone as good as Zain. Most can't avoid getting blown out by the Penn State junior. Only four of Zain's bouts a year ago were by decision. Maybe someone pulls off the upset of the decade (Yes, I'd view Zain losing as a bigger upset than Darrion Caldwell/Brent Metcalf in 2009). I just can't see how or who, so I won't be cute and put a name down.

CP's Predictions:

1. Zain Retherford, Penn State
2. Brandon Sorensen, Iowa
3. Lavion Mayes, Missouri
4. Micah Jordan, Ohio State
5. Alec Pantaleo, Michigan
6. Solomon Chishko, Virginia Tech
7. Anthony Collica, Oklahoma State
8. Ken Theobold, Rutgers

Round of 12: Justin Oliver, Central Michigan; Pat Lugo, Edinboro; Christian Pagdilao, Arizona State; Max Thomsen, Northern Iowa

Enough about Zain. You get the picture.

Brandon Sorensen has now turned in two extremely consistent seasons for Iowa at 149 pounds. There's nobody in the field who has been as good as he's been over the past two years. Part of me really thinks the Lavion Mayes/Sorensen match could be incredibly interesting, but I'm not going to give Mayes that respect til I see it. There's potentially more tiers in this weight than any other. There's a Zain tier, a Sorensen tier, and then the Michah Jordan/Mayes/Collica, etc. tier.

I have a strong allegiance to Mayes from a few years back when I dubbed him one of my biggest sleepers coming into the 2014-15 season. His double from space is as prolific as any attack in this weight. Mayes' power did not take a hit moving up from 141 to 149. I always feel like he could be beating guys by more and should win some matches he loses. That is what prevents me from slotting him in the finals against Retherford.

Lavion Mayes takes out Anthony Collica for third:

Jordan turned in a respectable freshman year for Ohio State at 141 pounds -- a weight that still seems preposterous for someone as big as Jordan. He made it like a champ all year long before fading late. Even still, if a few of his strange match tactics are altered (taking bottom against Randy Cruz), I think he is an All-American. He was undefeated as a redshirt at 157 and 149 last year, so I'm anticipating no problems up a weight. Jordan can get to legs and he can get to them more than a few ways. He's got great conditioning, positioning, and a solid top game. His bottom work is not a strong suit, but he still won a ton of matches in spite of that and he'll continue to this year. Expect a big year for Jordan.

Alec Pantaleo had a nice spring and summer, making the Junior World team and competing in France. He placed as a true sophomore for Michigan. Pantaleo has a great combination of blink-of-an-eye attacks and ridiculous power. Additionally, few takedowns come easy against Pantaleo.

Part of me wonders if Solomon Chishko won't make his way back down to 141 this year, but I know the cut isn't easy for him. Like Jordan, Chishko had great success as a redshirt up at 149, and I don't expect him to have any issue up a weight. Solomon is great from short offense, has heavy hands and a very strong double/single leg. I had questions about Solomon coming into his true freshman year after watching him in high school. He's been a rock of consistency for two years. If he stays the course, I don't see it changing.

A little regression to the mean for Anthony Collica. I was extremely high on him a year ago, and he put it all together last year at NCAAs despite a rocky regular season. Though Collica was fourth last year and I have him finishing seventh this year, it's not like I'm predicting a major drop-off. He was the No. 11 seed last year at NCAAs for a reason.

I'm taking a bit of a flier on Ken Theobold. I loved his guts in bumping up to 157 for the match against Dylan Palacio last year (which he won). He also has knocked off CJ Cobb, Max Thomsen, and Alex Griffin. Not the most awe-inspiring list, but I like his talent.

In the round of 12, I'm probably an idiot for not including Justin Oliver on the podium. He was solid last year. We'll see what transpires. Pat Lugo, Christian Pagdilao and Thomsen are a strong group, but this bunch could easily be replaced by a trio of Matt Cimato, Mitch Finesilver and Davion Jeffries. They're all pretty close in my mind.