What the Seeds Mean to the Team Race

We’re heading in to an NCAA tournament where Penn State is the prohibitive favorites and essentially a wire-to-wire candidate. After that, there are three likely contenders for the team title. Though Ohio State surprised everyone last season - usurping Iowa and Missouri - Penn State, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and Iowa have positioned themselves as first-tier threats for 2016. The schools that could be the ‘Ohio States’ of this year include NC State, Cornell, and those Buckeyes again.

Last year’s team totals were historically low; Ohio State won with just five All Americans and were the only team to break triple digits at 102pts. Runners-Up Iowa (84) didn’t even break 90, and were the only team with more than five AA’s.

The Buckeyes captured the title largely with head-to-head wins over Missouri in the semi’s - Nathan Tomasello over Alan Waters, and Kyle Snyder over J’Den Cox - both 4 seeds over 1 seeds. If Missouri won both matches, they (and Iowa) would have still had a strong shot to win.

Analyzing 2016 -
Seeds vs. Rankings

Projected team totals based on seeds (and not including bonus):
1. Penn St. - 98.5
2. Oklahoma St. - 80
3. Iowa - 78
4. Missouri - 72.5
5. Virginia Tech - 67.5
6. Cornell - 66
7. Ohio St. - 62.5
8. NC State - 61.5

Projected team totals based on rankings (and not including bonus points) have:
1. Penn St. - 103
2. Oklahoma St. - 89
3. Virginia Tech - 84
4. Iowa - 70
5. Missouri - 63.5
6. Cornell - 62.5
7. Ohio St. - 61.5
8. NC State - 57

The biggest takeaway from the seeds are that Iowa jumps up a big 8pts., primarily based on Sammy Brooks going from the 7th ranked wrestler to the 2nd seed.

After that 5 position swing, there’s a four-position move for Zack Epperly, who is ranked 4th but was seeded just 8th. Beyond that, the largest discrepancy among wrestlers on contending teams and ranked Top 8 (All American positions) were three-position variants for Dylan Palacio (Cornell) and Lavion Mayes (MIZZ), who both went ‘up’ three spots, and Nolan Boyd (OKST) who went down three spots (ranked 5th, seeded 8th).

Weight Class Breakdowns:
1st (X) = Seed, 2nd (X) = FloRanking

125:

Penn St. - (3) Nico Megaludis (3) Even
Oklahoma St. - (6) Eddie Klimara (6) Even
Virginia Tech - (2) Joey Dance (2) Even
Iowa - (4) Thomas Gilman (4) Even
Missouri - (8) Barlow McGhee (8) Even
Cornell - Dalton Macri (18) Null
NC State - Sean Fausz (UR) Null
Ohio State - (1) Nathan Tomasello (1) Even

Bracket Breakdown:

Six of the eight team contenders have a Top 8 at 125. Nothing was really shocking in the seeds; they were EXACTLY as CP had them ranked. I think both Gilman and Megaludis are glad they are separated. And I don’t think anyone will stop the top four from meeting in semi’s. In short, their seeding and draws didn’t do anything to change how one would feel about the team race.

Who won here: No One
Who lost here: No One

133:

Penn St. - (5) Jordan Conaway (5) Even
Oklahoma St. - GW Harding (20) Null
Virginia Tech - DNQ
Iowa - (2) Cory Clark (2) Even
Missouri - Zach Synon (UR) Null
Cornell - (1) Nahshon Garrett (1) Even
NC State - Jamal Morris (UR) Null
Ohio State - (10) Johnni DiJulius (10) Even

Bracket Breakdown:

Of the power teams, only three have projected AA’s with tOSU’s JDJ on the bubble. Clark’s win last week over Richards was huge in that it removed any chance of him moving below Brewer, which would have put him on the same side as Nahshon. For Cornell to have any chance at the title (and maybe even a podium finish) Nahshon has to win the whole thing. That means beating last year’s champ in 4th-seeded Brewer, in semi’s. PSU got a tough deal here with Conaway. The 5 spot is about right, but Ryan Taylor’s truncated season caused him to get the 12. Conaway will have to go through him and Brewer to reach the semi. If he loses to Taylor, he’s looking at a Blood Round match with George DiCamillo.

Who won here: No One
Who lost here: Penn State

141:

Penn St. - Jimmy Gulibon (15) Null
Oklahoma St. - (1) Dean Heil (1) Even
Virginia Tech - (7) Solomon Chishko (6) -1
Iowa - DNQ
Missouri - (5) Matt Manley (4) -1
Cornell - DNQ
NC State - (3) Kevin Jack (3) Even
Ohio State - (6) Micah Jordan (8) +2

Bracket Breakdown:

In the opinion of many (mine included) 141 is hands down the most loaded weight. I mean, look at this bracket. To say ‘so-and-so has a tough road’ is redundant; they all do. Most importantly to the team race is that the winner of a potential quarter between Jack and Mickey will determine if it is NCST or Ohio State that keeps pace for a podium finish. The team that loses that bout will lose any shot at a team trophy.Another tough, tough break for PSU (and Missouri). Gulibon gets drawn into a 5-seed (Manley). A Gulibon win and MIZZ can kiss a podium finish goodbye. But for PSU, even if Jimmy wins, he’ll have Mecate, then Ashnault next, who majored him in Big Ten finals.
On the plus side for OKST, Dean has as good of a draw as he could hope for as the 1 seed. On the bad side, he might have to go through Joey Ward, who’s had Dean’s number, to get to the semi’s. Cowboy fans will be cheering for Ricky Durso. But still - Ward or Durso to get to semi’s? I’d take it in a heartbeat.

Who won here: OKST
Who lost here: Penn State

149:

Penn St. - (1) Zain Retherford (1) Even
Oklahoma St. - (11) Anthony Collica (14) +3
Virginia Tech - DNQ
Iowa (2) - Brandon Sorensen (2) Even
Missouri - (3) Lavion Mayes (6) +3
Cornell - Joey Galasso (UR) Null
NC State - DNQ
Ohio State - DNQ

Bracket Breakdown:

Retherford is in a nice spot. He’ll have a sneaky tough match with Even Henderson, but otherwise he’ll cruise, with bonus, all the way to the finals (after a Cimato/Pantaleo semi). The depth (or lack thereof) at this weight can be exemplified by Mayes losing in his conference and still receiving the 3 ahead of Cimato. And here is a chance for OKST. If they really want to make a run at this thing, Collica beating Tsirtsis and Mayes must happen. And it’s not far-fetched. For Iowa, they have to love Sorenson’s road. There’s absolutely no reason he’s not a finalist.

Who won here: OKST, MIZZ
Who lost here: No One

157:

Penn St. - (3) Jason Nolf (2) -1
Oklahoma St. (6) Joseph Smith (5) -1
Virginia Tech - (8) Nick Brascetta (6) -2
Iowa - (13) Edwin Cooper (10) Null
Missouri - LeRoy Barnes (UR) Null
Cornell - (5) Dylan Palacio (8) +3
NC State - (2) Thomas Gantt (3) +1
Ohio State - Jake Ryan (12) Null

Bracket Breakdown:

Here’s the first real headscratcher. How does Gantt go behind IMAR, but ahead of Nolf? It’s sort of academic, because we all wanted IMAR and Nolf separated, but still.It’s also academic in the team race where you’re talking about a ceiling of 1st and a floor of 3rd for both Gantt and Nolf. Both should have little trouble getting through the quarters where Nolf will see JoJo and Gantt gets Cody Pack.
What would really shake up the joint, though I don’t see it happening, would be a JoJo upset of Nolf - and it was close last time. But like Collica at the previous weight, this is a spot where OKST can crash the party.
Speaking of sneaky, yet critical, team points - I don’t hate Cooper’s draw. He’ll have a tough, but winnable match each step of the way. Berger, the streaky and rumored-to-be-injured Ian Miller, and the enigma that is Dylan Palacio. I mean, hey, a hawkeye fan can dream, right?!
Likewise - that holds for Palacio. He garnered a seed three spots higher than his ranking and, if something truly is wrong with Miller, he has a fantastic shot at semi’s.
Ok, from the ‘totally out there’ to the ‘sure thing,’ - Nick Brascetta and VTech. I’m pretty darn sure he’ll make the quarters, and I’m pretty darn sure he’ll lose to IMAR. That gives him a Pack/Boyle Blood Round match that I think he’ll win.

Who won here: The fans, and Cornell
Who lost here: Tech

165:

Penn St. - Geno Morelli (UR) Null
Oklahoma St. - (1) Alex Dieringer (1) Even
Virginia Tech - (14) David McFadden (14) Even
Iowa - Patrick Rhoads (UR) Null
Missouri - (4) Daniel Lewis (6) +2
Cornell - George Pickett (20) Null
NC State - (5) Max Rohskopf (7) +2
Ohio State - (3) Bo Jordan (3) Even

Bracket Breakdown:

Both Lewis and Rohskopf got seeded two spots better than the rankings, which has Rodriguez and Perrotti in front of them. And it’s a big deal for the team chase. Think about it - Lewis and Rohskopf are likely to meet in quarters. That means one of these two team contenders - NCST or MIZZ are going to get a semifinalist. Now look at Rodriguez and Perrotti; they have to go through the Jordans. Yeah. It’s game-changing.Like his teammate Heil, Dieringer could see the only opponent that’s made him look mortal this year in Daniel Lewis (which would be a semi). But let’s pump the brakes on that; it’s a really tough road for a 4-seed and a freshman. Lewis will have to go through a really Jim Wilson and then Rohskopf first. These are the things that you have to have for MIZZ and NCST to maintain pace.
The winner here is NCST. You mean to tell me that I have to beat Lewis to be in NCAA semi’s? Yeah, if I’m Rohskopf I take that every day of the week. No offense to Lewis, but Rohskopf’s road to the semi’s is among the easiest of any bracket this year.
Oddly enough, both PSU and Iowa look to have early exits from this weight.

Who won here: NCST
Who lost here: No One

174:

Penn St. - (1) Bo Nickal (1) Even
Oklahoma St. - (9) Chandler Rogers (7) -2
Virginia Tech - (8) Zach Epperly (4) -4
Iowa - (13) Alex Meyer (13) Even
Missouri - (3) Blaise Butler (5) +2
Cornell - (2) Brian Realbuto (2) Even
NC State - DNQ
Ohio State - (11) Myles Martin (9) -2

Bracket Breakdown:

Epperly was the recipient of one of the biggest low-ball seeds - four spots under his ranking. As such, and despite how awesome Bo Nickal has been, the top quarter will be super exciting with an Epperly-Rogers R2 and the winner getting Bo. Team race implications for top three teams in that cluster.Ohio State has to like their position here. Instead of being involved in the above fray, Myles Martin was seeded two spots lower than his rank, and gets the 11 which gives him a tough but winnable match against 6th-seeded Bryce Hammond (and then Butler).

Who won here: Ohio State
Who lost here: Tech and OKST

184:

Penn St. - (16) Matt McCutcheon (12) -4
Oklahoma St. - (8) Nolan Boyd (5) -3
Virginia Tech - (5) Zack Zavatsky (3) -2
Iowa - (2) Sam Brooks (7) +5
Missouri - (14) Willie Miklus (15) -1
Cornell - (1) Gabe Dean (1) Even
NC State - (13) Pete Renda (13) Even
Ohio State - Kenny Courts (19) Null

Bracket Breakdown:

Really odd here. Cutch, who’s been a shell of himself after being injured, Boyd, who’s been on fire, and Zavatsky who’s also surging, all saw lower seeds than rankings. Sammy Brooks meanwhile gets a HUGE, H-U-G-E, huge bump all the way to #2. Let that sink in. It moves Iowa’s projected team total from 70 to 78, or, ya know, like an entire All American. Brooks cruises to quarters.CP is adamant Zavatsky got the short end of the stick here. Both in numbers (seeded 5th, ranked 3rd) and in position (Abounader in quarters, who he’s 0-2 against) his draw isn’t ideal. But, meh. Isn’t that bad in my opinion. And what could the seeding committee possibly have done? Big Tens (in particular Abounader losing to Dudley) pretty much prescribed this. I guess he does have a fair gripe about Avery at the 3. Anyway...
McCutcheon is injured and has Dean R2. Courts has a returning AA in Stauffer. Miklus hits Avery R2. Zavatsky goes Zilmer, Abounader. Everyone is screwed.

Who won here: Iowa, and huge
Who lost here: Every Other Contending Team outside of Cornell

197:

Penn St. - (1) Morgan McIntosh (1) Even
Oklahoma St. - Preston Weigel (16) Null
Virginia Tech - (6) Jared Haught (6) Even
Iowa - (4) Nathan Burak (3) -1
Missouri - (2) J’Den Cox (2) Even
Cornell - Owen Scott (UR) Null
NC State - (12) Michael Boykin (15) +3
Ohio State - DNQ

Bracket Breakdown:

Real oddity here in that Burak has won the last head-to-head with Pfarr and just outplaced him. In this situation, the 3 is a considerably better draw than the 4, which Pfarr received. Burak's quarters opponent would be Connor Hartmann; Pfarr's will be Jared Haught. Big difference. That being said, I don't think it has a dramatic impact on team race as Burak would likely drop to the WB's the next round. Is it possible that it hurt sIowa's team total? Yes. But you can overcome that. For starters, Burak can certainly beat Hartmann. Secondly, if he can't, he would have lost to him in the wrestlebacks anyway.
Who really has to be bummed is OKST. Weigel wins Big 12’s then draws the 3 seed in R1. Perhaps he didn’t deserve a seed, but to draw into the 3 is really bad luck. It’s a blow to the Cowboys who probably hoped Weigel could manage a few points or even a low AA.

Who won here: No one
Who lost here: Iowa, OKST

285:

Penn St. - DNQ
Oklahoma St. - (4) Austin Marsden (5) +1
Virginia Tech - (3) Ty Walz (3) Even
Iowa - (11) Sam Stoll (9) -2
Missouri - DNQ
Cornell - Jeramy Sweany (UR) Null
NC State - (1) Nick Gwiazdowski (1) Even
Ohio State - (2) Kyle Snyder (2) Even

Bracket Breakdown:

I think everyone let out a sigh of relief when Snyder was shown to be opposite Gwiz. That could be the most memorable match of MSG, and you couldn’t much blame the seeding committee if it worked out differently. I mean, Kyle has only wrestled a handful of matches. In the end, it was the sensical decision, a fan-friendly one, and one that helped a handful of contending teams.So seeds were pretty flawless, but like 197 where OKST was hurt by drawing into the 3 seed, Tech is hurt by their 3 seed getting Tanner Hall drawn into him. That’s a really tough first round match up.
Another nice situation for Iowa in that Sam Stoll, even as an 11 seed has a pretty furtuitous and realistic road. Now, Cornwell and Dejournette are no slouches, but 1) Stoll was ranked ahead of both before injury and 2) you could certainly draw tougher roads, as most other 11 seeds have. He could get healthy and make the darn quarters.

Who won here: Iowa, Ohio State, NC State, the fans
Who lost here: Tech

Summation:

So how did the seeding and the draws help or hurt title-contending teams? Penn State got some unfortunate situations. Conaway, Gulibon, and McCutcheon all have terrible scenarios. I mean, terrible. Conaway with Taylor then Brewer. Gulibon with a 5th-seeded Manley before Mecate and Ashnault. Cutch with Dean in R2. Morelli is behind the eight ball and they didn’t qualify HWT. The pre-tournament favorites could be down to five point scorers pretty darn early.

Although not as crushing, I think Virginia Tech got hurt a bit. Lower than expected seeds for Brascetta, Epperly, and Zavatsky and a brutal road for Walz.

Iowa is the team that I think can be more optimistic than before the brackets rolled out. Even if you don’t buy the end-of-the-rainbow scenario for Cooper that I painted above, think of this: Gilman is safe, Clark is safe, Sorenson is safe, Brooks got the gift of a lifetime, Burak is fine, and Stoll, under the circumstances, has a dream draw.

Let's be clear - Penn State has five guys that are almost semifinal locks. That's tough to contend with. That alone puts them in the driver's seat and if you consider anything you get in addition to them as gravy, then there might not be cause for alarm.

But the way the brackets have been unveiled, the margin for error has decreased drastically.

Let the games begin.