The 2015 U.S. Open is rife with talent, storylines and tremendous implications.  This preview will lay out my personal opinion with a smattering of analysis as to how I see these loaded brackets playing out.  I outlined just a few of the monster match ups we could see in my top 20 potential match ups article.  

When the talent level is this high, you get a combination of great wrestling as well as a tremendous amount of potential variance in terms of results.  10 seeds winning and 2 seeds not placing aren't just common place at the U.S. Open, they're nearly expected.  So take these predictions and thoughts for what they are: One guys opinion on one of the most loaded tournaments our country has at any level.  

57 kg/125.5 lbs Pre Seeds
1. Tony Ramos, Iowa City, Iowa (Titan Mercury WC)
2. Matt McDonough, Iowa City, Iowa (Titan Mercury WC)
3. Tyler Graff, Dublin, Ohio (New York AC)
4. Joe Colon, Cedar Falls, Iowa (Titan Mercury WC)
5. Angel Escobedo, Ames, Iowa (New York AC)
6. Dan Mitcheff, Cornwall, N.Y. (New York AC)
7. Zach Sanders, Minneapolis, Minn. (Minnesota Storm)
8. Andrew Hochstrasser, Boise, Idaho (Titan Mercury WC)

Unseeded X Factors- Nick Simmons, Brandon Precin, NYAC, Nathan Tomasello, Titan Mercury Wrestling Club, Joey Dance, Southeast RTC, Jarrod Garnett, LVAC

USA has some tremendous depth in this field and this is even with a guy like Nico Megaludis not competing. I could see scenarios where around 5 maybe 6 guys could bring home a titles and I wouldn’t bat an eye. This weight is that deep and more importantly, that even.

I like the strides that Tony Ramos has been making overall, and I think he’s a deserving favorite, albeit slightly. He’s extremely well-rounded. He doesn’t give up his legs, is solid from par terre and has great positioning. The Colon/Ramos rematch is extremely intriguing. We saw what happened last time around, but we’ve only seen Ramos take off from that point. I can’t wait to see what adjustments Ramos makes against Colon’s underhooks.

Tyler Graff is one of a handful of wildcards to watch out for. I like his path of Mitcheff then McDonough in the semi’s. I think his crisp leg attacks and strength will be tough for McDonough. However, McDonough could have an advantage on top. If McD beats Graff, I’m betting it’s because of his top game. Remember, Tyler Graff knocked off Logan Stieber in 2013.  Jog your memory here:

 

I really think Simmons and Tomasello are going to throw a wrench in this top 10. I could see Simmons knocking off anyone here. I just wonder about him stringing together 5 or 6 straight.

So at the end of it all, I think Ramos is a favorite here, but I don’t feel especially confident in much else and honestly, his path of potentially going through Colon gives me pause as well. Colon could just be a nightmarish match up for Ramos that won’t be solved with a simple adjustment. I’m erring on the side of Ramos evolving and strategizing. Something I’ve watched him do for years. I think Ramos knocks off Tyler Graff in the finals in a low scoring affair. There are studs like Escobedo that I didn’t even get into that could easily place and place high. In a weight this deep really good guys will be left off the podium. It isn’t easy to figure out who.

CP’s Predictions:
1. Tony Ramos
2. Tyler Graff
3. Matt McDonough
4. Nick Simmons
5. Joe Colon
6. Nathan Tomasello


61 kg/134 lbs.
1. Coleman Scott, Chapel Hill, N.C. (Sunkist Kids)
2. Reece Humphrey, Columbus, Ohio (New York AC/Ohio RTC)
3. Joey McKenna, Towaco, N.J. (Lehigh Valley AC)
4. Cody Brewer, Kansas City, Mo.
5. Kyle Hutter, Virginia Beach, Va. (Titan Mercury WC)
6. Connor Beebe, Western Springs, Ill. (Beebe Trained)
7. Kyle Jahn, Bolingbrook, Ill. (Bristol Gladiators)
8. Alan Waters, Kansas City, Mo. (Sunkist Kids/Missouri RTC)
9. Daniel Dennis, Iowa City, Ia. (Hawkeye WC)
10. Jon Morrison, Stillwater, Okla. (Cowboy WC)

Unseeded X Factors: Kendric Maple, Sooner Wrestling Club, Michael Mangrum, Titan Mercury WC, Joey Lazor, PWC

I’ll say it again, Kendric Maple is a tremendous x-factor here. Nobody wants this guy on their side on the bracket. #InsideInfoAlert Kendric Maple has actually made weight as recently as last week. He’s going to be scary here. That being said the savvy of Coleman and Humphrey are not to be discounted.

I’m really looking forward to Joey McKenna's debut. I think Humphrey is a bad match up in the semi’s but I don’t see him having any issue making it that far unless he draws Maple early. This field is significantly less deep than 57. I suppose that is the sad reality of 61 and 70 since they aren’t Olympic weights.

Coleman Scott enters as a deserving 1 seed. Many saw his World Cup performance and thought he seemed ‘off.’ I think this narrative is being a tad overplayed. Did he look his best? No. However, he was facing extremely high-level competition. The athleticism and offense are all still there. If he can get his timing back down, he could cement himself once again as one of the country’s best.

I’m glad to see Reece Humphrey back down at 61. He didn’t have the size to beat our best 65’s, despite his immense talent and variety of attacks. He’s extremely well rounded on his feet with ducks, throws and a great single leg. On top he’s a dangerous turner as well.

I’m expecting Mike Mangrum to do well down at 61KG. If he handles the cut well this guy is as athletic as anyone at the weight.

So let’s get down to it. I think Kendric Maple is going to go on a run here. I think his physical advantage is tremendous. I think the scores on his feet will come easy and if he can avoid getting turned he might just win the dang thing. Maybe it’ll be akin to Ed Ruth’s U.S. Open last year. He’ll make some mistakes as a result of a lack of experience but you’ll be left with the feeling that he will be “the guy” at some point. It’s tough to predict when you have no idea where someone like Kendric is going to be placed in a bracket.

I think Reece Humphrey takes out McKenna in the semi’s. I think McKenna has the advantage on top, but I don’t think he’ll get the takedowns. I think we’ll see Coleman Scott v. Reece Humphrey in the finals. A rematch from last years Fargo semi which was a classic. Scott won that one, and I think he’ll win this one too.

CP’s Predictions:
1. Coleman Scott
2. Reece Humphrey
3. Kendric Maple
4. Joey McKenna
5. Mike Mangrum
6. Alan Waters

65 kg/143 lbs.
1. Brent Metcalf, Iowa City, Iowa (NYAC/Hawkeye WC)
2. Jordan Oliver, Tempe, Ariz. (Sunkist Kids)
3. Aaron Pico, Whittier, Calif. (Titan Mercury WC)
4. Frank Molinaro, South Plainfield, N.J. (Nittany Lion WC)
5. Jimmy Kennedy, Ann Arbor, Mich. (New York AC/Michigan RTC)
6. Logan Stieber, Monroeville, Ohio (New York AC/Ohio RTC)
7. Jason Chamberlain, Lincoln, Neb. (Titan Mercury WC/Nebraska RTC)
8. Kellen Russell, Ann Arbor, Mich. (New York AC)

Unseeded X Factors: Montell Marion, Titan Mercury Wrestling Club, Jayson Ness, Minnesota Storm

Even without Aaron Pico in the field this is maybe the bracket most people will have their eyes on. Brent Metcalf, despite his veteran status continues to evolve and progress. I don’t see him getting knocked off by anyone. His attacks are similar but he so rarely gives up exposures off his own shots anymore which was a past issue for Brent. Last year he went unscored upon here. Not sure we see that duplicated, but I think he’ll be dominant.

Sliding up the seeds we could see a Jordan Oliver v. Kellen Russell quarter final. Not a match up you are particularly thrilled about if you’re Oliver considering your high seed. Kellen has presented some defensive challenges that have slowed Oliver down historically. Jimmy Kennedy up at 65KG is interesting. I wonder if he’ll have issues like Reece did up a weight. I think Kennedy is a little thicker and more explosive so there’s potential he can transition a bit more seamlessly, but for now I’m remaining cautious. Stieber and Molinaro are a pair of guys who I could very easily see in the finals as well if they were opposite Metcalf. Stieber will have to take care of Kennedy in the Quarters, then likely would face Metcalf. I like Metcalf in that match-up, though I wouldn’t be surprised a bit to see Logan sneak a td or 2.

I’m taking a chance here on Molinaro. I think he’s got a real shot at Oliver. Maybe I’m outside my mind here. I proclaimed Oliver the future of this weight when he graduated. I thought he was going to break out, and am beginning to wonder if he’s just going to be an extremely talented guy who never breaks through domestically. If he’s firing his attacks and offensive, score for score there’s few who can match it. But will we see that?

Metcalf dominated the Molinaro match up collegiately. Things change for sure, but Metcalf is at an incredible level right now. Not picking against him domestically until I see it done.

This is a running theme with this preview, but you can’t feel very sure about many of these guys. From 2 on I find it to be extremely fluid. Any combination of wins between the 2-6 guys wouldn’t surprise me.

CP’s Predictions:
1. Brent Metcalf
2. Frank Molinaro
3. Jordan Oliver
4. Logan Stieber
5. Jimmy Kennedy
6. Kellen Russell


70 kg/154 lbs.
1. Nick Marable, Morgantown, W.Va. (Sunkist Kids)
2. Dustin Schlatter, Minneapolis, Minn. (Minnesota Storm)
3. James Green, Willingboro, N.J. (Titan Mercury WC/Nebraska RTC)
4. Jason Welch, Evanston, Ill. (Chicago RTC/Wrestling Prep)
5. Moza Fay, Colorado Springs, Colo. (U.S. Army WCAP)
6. Kevin LeValley, Minneapolis, Minn. (Minnesota Storm)
7. Adam Hall, New York, N.Y. (Titan Mercury WC)
8. Cyler Sanderson, State College, Pa. (Nittany Lion WC)
9. Dan Vallimont, Long Beach, N.Y. (Blue & Gold WC)

Unseeded X Factors:Derek St. John, Titan Mercury WC, Steve Santos, Titan Mercurcy WC

I feel more confident in this weight than I do with any of the others. Nick Marable has looked excellent domestically down at 70KG. Like Metcalf, I refuse to pick against him against any American until I see it done. Marable’s leg attacks are improving and his defense has always been incredible. I would love to see him take on Welch who will force action (potentially to his own peril) and try to make something happen. I think Marable will stay at home and take make the finals yet again.

Dustin Schlatter is extremely similar stylistically to Marable. He looked great against Pan-Ams, but I didn’t know what to make of that competition honestly. James Green is one of my favorites, but the match up against Schlatter is similar to Marable. Not ideal for Green.  Green and Marable have hit in the World Team Trials finals in a series dominated by Marable.  I’m not sure what x factors are out there, but I find the field to be pretty well defined 1-4.

Marable and Schlatter had a 1-1 match that went Marable’s way earlier this year. I wouldn’t anticipate much different in this final.

CP’s Predictions:
1. Nick Marable
2. Dustin Schlatter
3. Jason Welch
4. James Green
5. Kevin LeValley
6. Moza Fay

74 kg/163 lbs.
1. David Taylor, State College, Pa. (Nittany Lion WC)
2. Andrew Howe, Norman, Okla. (New York AC)
3. Colt Sponseller, Edinboro, Pa. (New York AC)
4. Tyler Caldwell, Stillwater, Okla. (Sunkist Kids)
5. Ian Miller, Oak Harbor, Ohio (Golden Pride WC)
6. Quinton Godley, Raleigh, N.C. (Wolfpack WC)
7. Anthony Valencia, Pico Rivera, Calif.

Unseeded X-Factor: Nestor Taffur, Titan Mercury WC

A little of the luster of this weight is lost with Burroughs and Dake not here. Regardless, the field is still filled with story lines. It doesn’t look like Ian Miller will be here, so that’s a bummer. I am thrilled to watch Anthony Valencia here and view him as the only real x-factor guy with the ability to crack the top 4. I feel fairly confident in Howe and Taylor making the finals. I wish we could see Howe v. Caldwell in the semi’s, but with the seeding as such, that is impossible.

David Taylor has long since been one of mine (and the country’s) favorite guys to watch. He had a long layoff after the World Team Trials. He will have the opportunity for his first ever U.S. Open title here. He’s done well against Andrew Howe the last few times they’ve met.

I think Andrew Howe is still progressing and a year of Freestyle focus has been good for him as evinced by his 2nd place finish at the Yarygin. I still want to side with DT’s point scoring ability. We’ve seen David defend Howe’s attacks well in the past. Their match at the World Team Trials was a 3-1 win for Taylor. Don’t expect a real deviation from that.

CP’s Predictions:
1. David Taylor
2. Andrew Howe
3. Tyler Caldwell
4. Colt Sponseller
5. Anthony Valencia
6. Quinton Godley


86 kg/189 lbs.
1. Ed Ruth, Tempe, Ariz. (Sunkist Kids)
2. Keith Gavin, Charlottesville, Va. (Titan Mercury WC)
3. Chris Perry, Stillwater, Okla. (Cowboy WC)
4. Clayton Foster, Laramie, Wyo. (GRIT Athletics/Cowboy WC)
5. Richard Perry, Washington, D.C. (New York AC)
6. Deron Winn, Ames, Iowa (Titan Mercury WC)
7. Phillip Keddy, Iowa City, Iowa (Titan Mercury WC)
8. Jon Reader, Brookings, S.D. (Sunkist Kids)
9. Austin Trotman, Lincoln, Neb. (Titan Mercury WC)
10. Jake Herbert, Ann Arbor, Mich. (New York AC/Michigan RTC)

Unseeded X Factors: Quentin Wright, NLWC, Joe Leblanc, Titan Mercury WC, Patrick Downey, NYAC, Nathaniel Brown, LVAC

This, perhaps moreso than 65 KG looks to be the most loaded field in terms of depth. Jake Herbert at 10th? Give me a break. Regardless, the fact that that seed is specious lets you know this is a crazy weight.

For me the progression of Ed Ruth has been fascinating to watch. I am not sure who his toughest match up will be. If Herbert is clicking, it has to be him, right? Perhaps Keith Gavin is the guy, but we’ve seen Ed is still just scratching the surface of his Freestyle potential whereas Gavin is not likely to make anymore great leaps.

I told you Deron Winn was my sleeper pick, and I still stand by his talent is right there with a lot of these guys. I think his match with Perry in the quarters is extremely intriguing. I think Perry’s single leg matches up well with Winn. Winn has good hips, but if you get the angle on him, he can struggle to fight the finish. That’s a spot where Perry can get to. So the key is Perry getting to that sweep. I’m still siding with Deron to take this one. However, I think Gavin takes Deron out in the semis. There’s potential Deron can blow through Gavins head hands, but I see Keith controlling the ties and preventing Deron from getting to his attacks.

With Herbert out of the 10, it could set up a potential Herbert/Gavin Match up early in the tournament. Herbert has typically gotten the better of that exchange, but considering his lay off and a potential rust factor, I wonder if it’ll be duplicated. With a fairly limited sample size, I’m being a bit cautious in my predictions for Herbert.

Ultimately I think Ed takes this weight and potentially widens the gap from the competition. Point for point, I’m not sure he can be matched anymore. He can get to the legs at such an incredible clip and has made significant improvements with his finishes. Are there holes in Ed’s game? For sure. However, they are overcome with his immense arsenal.

CP’s Predictions
1. Ed Ruth
2. Keith Gavin
3. Jake Herbert
4. Deron Winn
5. Clayton Foster
6. Jon Reader

97 kg/213 lbs.
1. Jake Varner, State College, Pa. (Nittany Lion WC)
2. Cayle Byers, Stillwater, Okla. (Titan Mercury WC)
3. Dustin Kilgore, Colorado Springs, Colo. (Sunkist Kids/OTC)
4. J.D. Bergman, Columbus, Ohio (New York AC/Ohio RTC)
5. Wynn Michalak, Champaign, Ill. (Titan Mercury WC/Illinois RTC)
6. Kyle Snyder, Woodbine, Md. (Ohio RTC)
7. Micah Burak, Colorado Springs, Colo. (Titan Mercury WC/OTC)
8. Enock Francois, Ithaca, N.Y. (New York AC)
9. Matt Gibson, Ames, Iowa (Titan Mercury WC)
10. David Zabriskie, Northampton, Pa. (Lehigh Valley AC)

Unseeded X Factors: J’Den Cox, Missouri Wrestling Club, Jarod Trice, Titan Mercury WC

While Jake Varner looks to be a tremendous favorite for another U.S. Open title, the eyes of many will keep a close eye on Junior World Champion Kyle Snyder. Snyder out of the 6 seed will have the potential to make the finals, I truly think he’s right here.

One thing of note is a potential Bergman/Varner semi. If there’s one guy in the field that can test Varner, perhaps it’s Bergman. Now, it is worth mentioning it’s been years since Bergman and Varner faced each other. Bergman will have to get past Michalak who beat him last year at the Open.

On the bottom side, Dustin Kilgore and Kyle Snyder will likely hit it in the quarters. The two trained together at the OTC for some time, so there will be some familiarity there. I like Snyder to take out Kilgore and then Cayle Byers. Byers length could be problematic for Snyder. Cayle has a great single leg, but Snyder’s hand fighting could prohibit and limit his opportunities. I think Snyder completes his run to the finals before Varner brings him back down to Earth.

CP’s Predictions.
1. Jake Varner
2. Kyle Snyder
3. Cayle Byers
4. JD Bergman
5. Wynn Michalak
6. Dustin Kilgore

125 kg/275 lbs.
1. Tervel Dlagnev, Columbus, Ohio (Sunkist Kids WC/Ohio RTC)
2. Zach Rey, Bethlehem, Pa. (Lehigh Valley AC)
3. Tyrell Fortune, Portland, Ore. (Titan Mercury WC)
4. Nick Gwiazdowski, Delanson, N.Y. (Wolfpack WC)
5. Dom Bradley, Morgantown, W.Va. (Sunkist Kids)
6. Tony Nelson, Minneapolis, Minn. (Minnesota Storm)
7. Matthew Meuleners, Lincoln, Neb. (Titan Mercury WC/Nebraska RTC)
8. Eric Thompson, State College, Pa. (Nittany Lion WC)
9. Justin Grant, Buffalo, N.Y. (New York AC/Buffalo WC)

Unseeded X Factors: Chad Hanke, Titan Mercury WC, Adam Coon, CKWC

Looking forward to this one in the worst kind of way. A few of my favorites guy are in this weight. Obviously psyched to see Tervel Dlagnev in the field once more. Whoever he gets in the semi’s I’ll be thoroughly excited to see. Dom Bradley is the last American to beat Tervel. Gwiazdowski is potentially the guy with the most potential to one day become “the guy” for the United States at 125KG. We saw Gwiaz and Dom wrestle a classic last year at the World Team Trials. I think I like Dom in a rematch, but have very little confidence either way. I think both guys will be improved from that point in time.

I feel as though I perpetually underrate Zach Rey and maybe I’m going to again. He’s right there with all of our best guys, but I constantly find myself wondering why he doesn’t pull the trigger more. So I find myself limiting how high I put him. Tyrell Fortune can bomb with the best of them as well. I think these two can make the finals or finish outside the top 3 just as well. Personally, if Gwiaz or Dom were on their side, I’d pick one of them to make the finals.

At the end of the day whoever it is, Tervel is taking care of business as he has been for years. Hats off to him for competing at the Open despite having a spot in the trials finals locked up.

CP’s Predictions:
1. Tervel Dlagnev
2. Tyrell Fortune
3. Dom Bradley
4. Nick Gwiazdowski
5. Zach Rey
6. Adam Coon