Fi: The Ultimate NCAA Preview

Fi: The Ultimate NCAA Preview

Mar 16, 2015 by Christian Pyles
Fi: The Ultimate NCAA Preview
The nitty gritty details of the tournament, the early matches, the round 2 wrestlebacks, there are going to be massive ramifications within many of these scenarios. I’m going to opine not only about how I see many of these matches going, but also the minute situations that will have major impact on the team race.

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The nitty gritty details of the tournament, the early matches, the round 2 wrestlebacks, there are going to be massive ramifications within many of these scenarios. I’m going to opine not only about how I see many of these matches going, but also the minute situations that will have major impact on the team race.


125

Early Round Drama:
A few matches to have your eye on are the Terao/Peters match as well as the Delgado/Cox match. I don’t see a high probability for major upsets apart from there. I do like Moisey to take out Tolbert in round 1, personally. I think Peters knocks off Terao and Delgado beats Cox. That sets up a Peters v. Delgado match up in round 2. Delgado is so savvy, I think he has a tailor-made gameplan for Peters where he stays out of his Peters positions, gets a counter TD and moves on.


Quarters:
The run Alan Waters has been in is incredible. Wins over all the major contenders 2-8 in the ASICS FloRankings he has answered the call time and time again. In the quarters he will likely see the winner of Jesse Delgado and Dylan Peters. If he sees Delgado, there will be a collective “gulp” from the Missouri fans. Why? Not simply because Jesse is a tougher matchup than Peters has been. But it will also mean Delgado has knocked off Tyler Cox and Dylan Peters, back to back. I still feel good about Waters moving on there and once again will be in the NCAA semi’s.

I love Tomasello to advance past Boyle. Though Boyle has notched the big win over Gilman and defintely has the goods to go 7 minutes with Tomasello, I just believe Nate will give himself more opportunities to score. Tomasello has to be incredibly aware and focused in his finishes or Boyle will counter him silly. I think he does and wins a fairly tight one.

Gilman v. Dance pt 2. I’m going Dance, but you can’t feel great about the pick. Neither guy revealed much offense but it was Dance able to get to his single and finish, so that’s the evidence we have right now. I don’t think either have evolved too much since MIdlands. Huge match for the Hawkeyes because if Gilman were able to pull the upset against Dance, he has Nahshon who he has already beaten in the semi. I don’t see Nahshon having any issue knocking off the Klimara/Bresser winner in the quarters.

Semis:
Waters and Tomasello met earlier this year and it was Waters getting a huge lead early off a shin wizzer tilt. Tomasello stormed back but made costly mistakes to secure the Waters win. Both guys play it a little closer to the vest this time around. Huge match for the team race but I’m taking Waters to slow it down and win close.

We’ve seen Nahshon and Dance before as well. Despite Joey continuing to improve and narrow the margin against Nahshon, it’s just a bad match up. I like Nahshon to win a one takedown match where his top game is a huge difference maker. I say this acknowledging that Dance is much improved from bottom.

Finals: Waters did everything he could do at the Scuffle to slow Nahshon down in the first. Nahshon won’t let that happen again. He’ll make a bigger point to score, impress the officials to earn stall calls and put himself in a position where he doesn’t have to rely on his mat skills. Waters reversed and rode well last time. If Nahshon rides this time, he won’t allow himself to get reversed, he’ll give up the escape and go where he’s best. Nahshon takes the title for Cornell.


CP’s Final Predictions:
1. Nahshon Garrett-Cornell
2. Alan Waters-Missouri
3. Joey Dance-Virginia Tech
4. Thomas Gilman-Iowa
5. Nathan Tomasello-Ohio State
6. Sean Boyle-UTC
7. Jesse Delgado-Illinois
8. Eddie Klimara-Oklahoma State
Round of 12: Zeke Moisey-West Virginia (loses to Boyle), Jordan Conaway, Penn State (loses to Delgado), Kory Mines, Edinboro (loses to Klimara), Dylan Peters-UNI (loses to Gilman)


133


Early Round Drama:
Things get insane in round 2. Beckman v. Gulibon, Grey v. Taylor, Hall v. Sabatello, Clark v. Bruno, JDJ v. Brewer, Richards v. DiCamillo, Schopp v. Devoy. This is a bracket that can go wrong in a hurry from a predictions standpoint. I believe all those matches will be in the balance. Of those matchups, I’ll be taking Beckman, Taylor, Hall, Clark, JDJ, Richards and Schopp to advance to their quarters.

Quarters:
Dardanes v. Schopp is ridiculous to speculate. What state is AJ in. If he’s 100% AJ Schopp, he’s the favorite. I’m operating under the assumption that he’s not even close. Perhaps making the quarters is ambitious for AJ, but I had him go that far. He falls to Dardanes here.

Richards v. DiJulius hasn’t gone down too many times, but it was Zane the winner last season JDJ had a fine Big 10’s, but I am going with Richards simply because of the history. I think his positional discipline will keep him out of DiJulius good holds and Zane can get away from just about anybody. One takedown match that goes Zane’s way.

Cory Clark v. Earl Hall looks to be a fun one. It’s been Clark historically, and one thing you’ll see me do often is side with history. There is not tried and true method that is correct for predicting 100% of the time, but if you side with what you’ve seen happen before, you’ll do better than those who take shots in the dark.

Mason Beckman v. Ryan Taylor will be pretty tight. Strong chance we see Gulibon and I see some upset potential regardless of who makes it. That is not to besmirch what Taylor has done this year, I am only saying this because typically the 2 seed would not have such stiff competition this early. I’m going with Taylor though. He’s relentless, and I think against either Mason or Gulibon that is a real asset. He needs to be aware of not bringing too much forward pressure against Beckman who can release and fire his single as quick as anyone.

Semis:
Dardanes v. Richards we saw earlier this year and if it’s anything like that last time we’re in for a treat. Richards stormed out to a huge lead. Dardanes stormed on back late to take it in overtime. Richards was beyond gassed late in this one. Richards has the potential to be a big time surprise finalist. Maybe moreso than people realize. That being said the evidence is on Dardanes side. His pace is excellent, his bottom issues are seemingly a thing of the past, and he’s got the attacks as well. Dardanes punches his ticket to Saturday night in a match where Dardanes is more selective with his attacks than the last time around.

I don’t have a great read on this one to be honest. In a vacuum, skill for skill, I think Taylor has it over Clark. I just see something in Clark from an execution of a gameplan standpoint. Clark cannot afford to go down early, that could spell incredible trouble for him. These two split last year with Taylor winning the most recent match. The evidence may point Taylor, but I think Clark gets the job done here with one takedown and a quality ride.

Finals:
We’ve seen Dardanes v. Clark two times before, and I like Dardanes to get it done for the Gophers. Willie says Dardanes will weigh 167 pounds on Saturday night. While I laughed, something like that could matter. He won’t weight that much of course, but everyone knows the Dardanes have been cutting hard. Full feed, heavier hips = a chip for CD. He gets the TD he needs and Clark just won’t be able to create that angle.

CP’s Final Predictions:
1. Chris Dardanes-Minnesota
2. Cory Clark-Iowa
3. Ryan Taylor-Wisconsin
4. Zane Richards-Illinois
5. Mason Beckman-Lehigh
6. Johnni DiJulius-Ohio State
7. Earl Hall-Iowa State
8. AJ Schopp-Edinboro
Round of 12: Jimmy Gulibon, Penn State (loses to DiJulius), Rossi Bruno, Michigan (loses to Schopp), George DiCamillo, UVA (loses to Beckman), Kevin Devoy, Drexel (loses to Hall)


141


Early Round Drama:
You certainly can’t sleep on the Mayes/Spisak match early, though I think Mayes’ advantage on his feet will be overwhelming personally. If Nick Dardanes has a round 1 like last year, he could certainly fall to Steven Rodrigues, though I’m not predicting as such. The Horan/Ashnault round 2 match I really struggled with. Ashnault can do it, I just like how Horan has come on the last part of the season. Mayes will be under the gun again in round 2 against Heil who gave him fits at the Scuffle. I’m cautiously going with Lavion to advance.

Quarters:
Logan will make quick work of either Abidin or Martinez. I have Abidin pulling through his rd 2 match. He’s been excellent and battle tested to a far higher degree than Martinez. Regardless, Logan by pinfall here.

Devin Carter takes care of business against Josh Dziewa in what I think will be a physical mis-match. Carter will knock him out of position and get a run of takedowns going. Not a bonus point win but I think an 8-2 type of win is possible for Devin.

Lavion Mayes v. Nick Dardanes in the battle of the double leg masters. For me it’s about probabilities. I think Mayes going through Spisak, Heil and Dardanes is just so tough, the third big match is a charm and Dardanes sends the egregiously seeded Mayes into the round of 12. Going to be a good one to watch though with enormous team implications.

I like Port to roll in his quarter against Zach Horan, this one won’t be as close as the score indicates. It bears mentioning that my colleague Willie Saylor predicts Anthony Ashnault to pull the upset here against Port. So if it happens, give Willie a high 5, and when it doesn’t happen, please ridicule him.


Semis:
We’ve seen Logan and Devin throughout different stages of their career. This match shouldn’t happen so early but, no sense in complaining about that now. It’s been a terrible match up for Devin consistently. Logan scores on his feet at a tremendous clip because of Devin’s wide open style. Logan wins comfortably here.

Port v. Dardanes in a battle of two guys who love to punish the head. I view Port as an overall superior athlete, and while both will get to the legs, I think Port prevents Dardanes from finishing and Mitchell will be able to either win via riding or securing a takedown. I think Port has a slight edge in all areas of wrestling. Port gets his second crack at Logan.


Finals:
History will be made. Logan Stieber will join the rare company of Pat Smith, Cael Sanderson and Kyle Dake as 4 time NCAA Champions. Port is the guy best suited to knock off Logan. However, I don’t see a path to victory. Logan won’t gas and he can score at such a high clip. I think their match at Edinboro will be pretty closely duplicated. Logan has to work hard for every point, but ultimately he’ll get the takedowns and rides necessary to seal the deal.


CP’s Final Predictions:
1. Logan Stieber-Ohio State
2. Mitchell Port-Edinboro
3. Devin Carter-Virginia Tech
4. Nick Dardanes-Minnesota
5. Lavion Mayes-Missouri
6. Anthony Abidin-Nebraska
7. Anthony Ashnault-Rutgers
8. Zach Horan-Central Michigan
Round of 12: Josh Dziewa-Iowa(loses to Ashnault), Chris Mecate-ODU(loses to Abidin), Joe Spisak-UVA(loses to Horan), Geo Martinez, Boise State(loses to Mayes)


149

Early Round Drama:
2 monumentally important early matches here. Dave Habat v. Josh Kindig in round one may be the most anticipated day 1 match all together. What Kindig will be this tournament is a tremendous unknown. It is possible that even at his best, he’d struggle with Habat. Kindig when on has the goods to beat anybody. I just am going with logic and Habat. Hunter Stieber v. Ruggirello will be a big one as well. Perhaps more impactful on the team side than the aforementioned Habat/Kindig match. The Buckeyes need Hunter to be pretty dang good here. Ruggirello is quite a test. I think Beitz takes out Villalonga in round 2 honestly. Villalonga just doesn’t have the neutral attacks. I think Beitz snakes one ankle pick or leg attack at some point. He’s got to get away from Villalonga, and I think he will.

Quarters:
Houdashelt v. Richardson is a lot more interesting than people may realize. Lenny has consistently wrestled Drake tough. Houdashelt will be put the test here. He’s never lost to Lenny, so don’t expect it, but know he’ll work for it.

I think we see Beitz v. Sorensen here as I said. This was a fun one at Penn State. Sorensen controls ties, gets to his single and moves on. Beitz needs to give himself more opportunities from neutral for an upset here. I just think Sorensen is so great defensively. It makes it tough to predict the loss here but Beitz is dangerous

I have Hunter Stieber not only knocking off Ruggirello but Habat as well. #YOLO Let’s keep the Hunter love going with a win over Pantaleo to crash the semi’s. Stieber is the best leg attacker at this weight. Bar none. Considering the big 3 shoot so rarely that may not be saying much, but I do think if he can find a way. Hunter’s success is probably the biggest leap I make this entire preview. I understand it’s wholly illogical, and that’s not my M.O. Whatever, he was my pre-season pick and Big 10’s gave me some hope.

Tsirtsis with a cakewalk to the semi’s against the Pagdilao/Mastriani winner. Something like 4-1 if I had to guess.

Semis:
We saw Drake’s mat advantage against Sorensen, but I was honestly disappointed with his offensive output. I think Drake has more from neutral than he showed and we’ll see it this time. Drake makes a point to get the takedown and in a match like this, that’s all she wrote. We’ve already seen Drake has the goods to ride just about anybody.

Tsirtsis ends Hunter’s run here. I like Jason regardless of opponent here. I feel super confident in his ability to find ways to win. He doesn’t need a takedown, but he can get em. He doesn’t need a ride, but he can do it. His sitout series from under has made him one of the toughest guys to ride at the weight.

Finals:
Drake Houdashelt v. Jason Tsirtsis may not be the most show stopping of match ups, but I believe these are the two best this weight has to offer. It’ll come down to a few minute scenarios. A late ride, getting a leg attack stalemated or a timely escape. If it comes down to that, that’s right in Tsirstsis’ wheel house. Tsirtsis wins ugly en route to title number 2.

CP’s Final Predictions:
1. Jason Tsirtsis-Northwestern
2. Drake Houdashelt-Missouri
3. Brandon Sorensen-Iowa
4. Dave Habat-Edinboro
5. Hunter Stieber-Ohio State
6. Chris Villalonga-Cornell
7. Alec Pantaleo-Michigan
8. Zach Beitz-Penn State
Round of 12: BJ Clagon-Rider(loses to Beitz), Lenny Richardson-ODU(loses to Habat), Christian Pagdilao-Arizona State(loses to Villalonga), Mike Racciato-Pitt(loses to Pantaleo)


157


Early Round Drama:
Personally I don’t know if this is even “drama” but I see Brascetta taking LaVallee out in round 1. That has team implications for certain but it puts LaVallee on a pretty nice track to get round of 12 if not more. Also, I think Minotti takes out Cody Pack in round 2. Mitchell has been up and down, I acknowledge. Pack simply doesn’t have a win that gets me super excited. He’s the 5, but for what reason? The only seeded win he notched was over Chad Walsh. Pardon me for not letting that win instill a ton of confidence against a returning All American who beat 6 seed Josh Demas and 9 seed LaValle this year. Demas v. Brian Murphy early is quite the test for Demas. TOSU needs that win, and I think he gets it but expect a razor tight match.

Quarters:
I think I-Mar v. Brascetta may be more interesting than people give it credit. Brascetta is a great hand fighter who could make life difficult for I-Mar as far as getting to his ties. Still think Martinez is just that dude. He’ll get a few scores that you just can’t scheme against. I think he wins a comfortable decision here.

With Minotti taking out Pack I have him facing James Green in the quarters. I don’t see even a small chance for Minotti here. Green will pick his spots from neutral and could give Minotti some issues from top.

Ness v. Demas should be Ness without huge issue. Ness will get to his attacks and win a controlled match something like 4-2. Demas doesn’t have the offense to exploit Ness. Even if Josh goes upper-body, I don’t like him against Ness in those spots.

Ian Miller v. Brian Realbuto could be a thriller. Realbuto has looked incredible since the Scuffle. Miller has not been the title contender many felt he would be after his NCAA run last year. That being said he’s still an incredibly dangerous athlete who can bomb just about anyone. Realbuto will do well to strike early and shrink the match with a long ride. I think that’s what we see here.

Semis:
If anybody is going to stop I-Mar from taking the title I think it’s James Green. That’s our top-semi match up in my opinion. Green was a finish away from making his first match with Martinez much closer. He was in deep, just couldn’t plant him. I don’t think it’ll happen, but people can’t write off this match. Green was my pre-season pick to take the whole dang thing. I really think that much of I-Mar. He’s got all the goods. He takes another close one against Green.

Perhaps this is another leap on my part but I like Ness to take out Realbuto. Realbuto took their first match and controlled each aspect of the match. In a way I’m picking against the evidence we’ve seen this year. I can rationalize it in my own mind because we’ve seen Dylan flip previous results so many times. The variations in performance from Dylan have been a storyline for years. I don’t know why or how, but I just think Ness gives himself one last shot at the big stage here.

Finals:
You saw the Big 10 finals right? I-Mar v. Ness seemed like a tremendous mis-match. Dylan will adjust. Towards the end Ness was just throwing the kitchen sink at him. It made it look like a worse beating maybe than it was. I believe there is no available evidence that would suggest picking against Martinez is justified. He’s just been incredible at every spot. His constant pursuit of points and well developed top game make him a nightmarish match up for Dylan. I-Mar gets it done. Freshman National Champion.


CP’s Final Predictions:
1. Isaiah Martinez-Illinois
2. Dylan Ness-Minnesota
3. Brian Realbuto-Cornell
4. James Green-Nebraska
5. Nick Brascetta-Virginia Tech
6. Ian Miller-Kent State
7. Josh Demas-Ohio State
8. Mitch Minotti-Lehigh
Round of 12: Joe LaVallee-Missouri (loses to Minotti), Brian Murphy-Michigan(loses to Brascetta), Cody Pack-SDSU(loses to Miller), Doug Welch, Purdue(loses to Demas)


165


Early Round Drama:
To be honest, I don’t see much going on here lately. I think things go more/less chalk. I do have Nick Moore going on a run to the quarters knocking off Harger and Jim Wilson, but that’s probably more foolhardy than anything. Bo Jordan v. Palacio will be fun, I admit, but I think Bo is a little too fundamental. Health questions surrounding Dylan make me wonder even more if this will be competitive.

Quarters:
Dieringer is that dude and he rolls against Peyton Walsh who honestly impressed me a ton at EIWA’s. An extremely complete wrestler. These are two guys on very different levels though.

Bo Jordan v. Nick Sulzer is an incredible quarterfinal. Bo suffered his first NCAA loss at Big 10’s to Isaac Jordan. I think Sulzer has the defense to keep Bo at bay. Sulzer can also ride. I don’t feel super confident in this pick but if Bo doesn’t want to go under Nick, I can see Nick getting away and finding a way to keep Bo off his legs for the rest of the match. It’s a toss up though and maybe I’m letting the recency of Bo’s (very relative) struggles impact my analysis too much.

Isaac Jordan v. Taylor Walsh is our 3rd quarter and absolutely a great potential match up. I think Zeke has shown he can stay at home well enough to not be at risk against Walsh’s tremendous pinning ability. I like Zeke to move on here.

I like Moreno to make it through no issue to the semi’s regardless of his opponent. He’s been fantastic all season long and Harger/Moore/Wilson whoever it is, will be a substantial underdog against Mike.

Semi’s:
Sulzer has had 2 cracks against Dieringer before and I don’t see any path to victory for him. He doesn’t give himself the opportunities on his feet to score and Dieringer is all but unridable. Meanwhile Alex Dieringer continues to just win without much challenge. I think he takes care of business here no problem.

I’ve changed my mind 4 or 5 different times on the Moreno/Isaac Jordan match up. Moreno got the stick last time around against Jordan. That was a pretty surprising result for me. Score for score Moreno seemingly has more scoring potential, but I believe Jordan is slowing it down and controlling the tempo this time. Slow pace, tough riding and I see Zeke a very narrow winner.

Finals:
Alex Dieringer v. Isaac Jordan. Ringer is the second biggest lock for a title to Logan Stieber in my opinion. I don’t know who the best match up to knock off Dieringer is honestly. Jordan’s defense makes me think it’s him. I think Dieringer controls every aspect of this match. He’ll get a takedown or 2, ride well and get out on bottom. His combination of strength and slickness makes him a nightmare to scheme for. Title #2 for ‘Ringer.


CP’s Final Predictions:
1. Alex Dieringer-Oklahoma State
2. Isaac Jordan-Wisconsin
3. Nick Sulzer-UVA
4. Bo Jordan-Ohio State
5. Mike Moreno-Iowa State
6. Taylor Walsh-Indiana
7. Peyton Walsh-Navy
8. Dylan Palacio-Cornell
Round of 12: Ethan Ramos-UNC(loses to Palacio), Tristan Warner-ODU(loses to Peyton Walsh), Nick Moore-Iowa(loses to Palacio), Pierce Harger-Northwestern(loses to Taylor Walsh)


174


Early Round Drama:
I’m predicting complete and total chalk up to the quarters. 1-8 hold serve. Keep an eye on the Crutchmer v. Butler match in round 2. There could be a little upset potential there for Crutchmer. Brunson v. Storley in round 2 is of note as well.

Quarters:
Two AA’s will collide in the top quarter with Kokesh and Wilps. Kokesh has looked the part of the 1 seed all year. Wilps will wrestle him tough but Kokesh will get the job done here.

Blaise Butler v. John Eblen is a huge one for the team picture. Missouri will need points in this spot. I think Butler’s point scoring ability is up there with the very best at this weight. Ducks, leg attacks and big time throws, he can do it all. I like Blaise to get the job done.

Evans v. Storley part 36 will likely go down in the quarters. For whatever reason Evans has been able to get the job done here. I’ll go Evans this time around, but I don’t feel great about it, nor should anyone. Here’s to a match decided in regulation!

Epperly v. Brown was a classic last time around with the Freshman stunning the entire D1 scene when he went to PSU and knocked off Brown. Brown will have his revenge this time around. Brown struggled with the counters of Epperly when he got to the legs. He’ll address that and finish properly and move on.

Semis:
Kokesh and Butler hit in the CKLV finals this season and I think we see a similarly entertaining match. Butler won’t hold back in my opinion. His only option is to look to score big. If he slows it down Kokesh will execute his leg attacks and pick him apart. I think it’ll be a great one but ultimately Kokesh answers the call once more.

Brown has been the guy in this match up lately. His top work and pace gave Evans fits last time around. One thing that hasn’t left my memory is how well Mike Evans wrestled on the top side last year en route to the semi’s. So close to knocking off Chris Perry. Part of me thinks he’ll rekindle the magic again and get through. Conventionality dictates otherwise, however, so I’m going Brown.

Finals:
We’ll have a rematch of the Big 10 finals where we saw Kokesh a winner last time around. One thing my mind goes back to that 2nd period scramble the two had. That really sealed the match. If Brown wins that scramble, who knows how it plays out. That being said, there’s a reason Kokesh won the scramble: he’s a better scrambler than Brown. Kokesh has been awesome all year, he controls the ties as well as anyone and fires off leg attacks more consistently than any other 174 in my opinion. He used to shoot himself out of matches back when he was a Freshman. Now when he shoots, he scores or nobody scores. Kokesh takes it by a point.


CP’s Final Predictions:
1. Robert Kokesh-Nebraska
2. Matt Brown-PSU
3. Logan Storley-Minnesota
4. Mike Evans-Iowa
5. Blaise Butler-UVA
6. John Eblen-Missouri
7. Zach Epperly-Virginia Tech
8. Tyler Wilps-Pittsburgh
Round of 12: Mark Martin-Ohio State(loses to Eblen), Zac Brunson-Illinois(loses to Wilps), Kyle Crutchmer-Oklahoma State(loses to Epperly) Cody Walters-Ohio(loses to Storley)


184

Early Round Drama:
Watch Willie Miklus v. Lorenzo Thomas, whatever you do. Not only am I expecting a great match, the team implications could be tremendous. If Willie can go on a run it’s huge, but he’s an underdog here and a loss to Thomas in rd 1 puts him in a position where he faces the Abounader/Brooks loser early in wrestlebacks! Ouch! The winner of the Miklus/Thomas match gets Nate Brown! More ouch. Also, Nolan Boyd could face Taylor Meeks in round 2. Boyd dominated that match up last time and I think he wins once again.

Quarters:
Top seed Gabe Dean will take on the winner of the Abounader and Brooks match. I think Brooks winds up there but it’s very possible it’s Abounader. Dean wasn’t pleased with his win over Brooks last time around, but I was! Even when Brooks got to the exact positions off his re-attacks where he wants to be, Dean had an answer. He’ll have the answer again here. Dean moves on.

Boyd v. Dechow may be a surprise quarter to many, but I’m just going with what we’ve seen before to get to this point. I like Dechow to move along here. When he pulls the trigger he’s scary good. Finishing can be an issue but he’ll be alright here.

Stauffer v. Zilmer-I feel strongly that Stauffer, who has thrived under the new ASU coaching staff will take care of business once again against Zilmer. Zilmer fell to Blake at CKLV. I see it happening again.

We saw Brown v. Thomusseit at the Scuffle. Thomusseit continually put himself in positions to score. While Brown was able to stifle him for a time defensively but persistence paid off for Thomusseit. If Brown can pull the trigger and get to his single more and finish it could be a very different match. The match can’t be wrestled with Brown on the defensive if he wants to pull the upset. Thomusseit will break through otherwise. I’m sticking with what i saw with Thomusseit last time around.

Semis:
I think it’ll be Gabe Dean v. Jack Dechow. The thing that impresses me about Gabe Dean is you can get to your spots and holds and he still will succeed. That’s what happened against Dechow at the all star. Dechow got to his legs, but Dean had an answer. That match suggested to me he had separated. It was awhile ago, but I still remember watching and thinking “Gabe may have pulled away here.” Sticking with that intuition. Dean to the finals.

Blake Stauffer is still a bit of an unknown to many people despite his high ranking. He attacks the legs supremely well. Many may not give him a shot here, and I’m inclined to agree he’s an underdog, but I still think he can make it interesting against Thomusseit. I like Thomusseit to keep Stauffer off his legs and convert one of those doubles for the win.

Finals:
Dean v. Thomusseit part 2. Again, I’ll reiterate, Gabe Dean doesn’t mind going where you’re good, he doesn’t mind if Thomusseit gets his legs in. Dean was able to reverse him to his back for the fall. While bonus points are not likely this time around, I do think Gabe seals the deal here for the title. I think he could potentially wear on Thomusseit a bit and open him up for a late snatch single for the win. Dean earns his title.


CP’s Final Predictions:
1. Gabe Dean-Cornell
2. Max Thomusseit-Pittsburgh
3. Jack Dechow-Old Dominion
4. Blake Stauffer-Arizona State
5. Nate Brown-Lehigh
6. Lorenzo Thomas-Penn
7. Hayden Zilmer-NDSU
8. Sammy Brooks-Iowa
Round of 12: Taylor Meeks-Oregon State(loses to Thomas), Brett Pfarr-Minnesota(loses to Brooks), Vic Avery-Edinboro(loses to Brown), Domenic Abounader-Michigan(loses to Zilmer)


197


Early Round Drama:
If Hartmann from the 10 knocking off Ayala from the 7 spot is drama, then whatever. That’s not an upset, just an indictment on the seeding. Hartmann wins there. Polizzi v. Burak is huge. Polizzi seems to be banged up but he’s pushed Burak before. Keep an eye on it.

Quarters:
Huntley v. Cox is a tough one for the Wolverine. Getting to legs hasn’t been the issue for Max so much as finishing. The problem is J’Den is as hard to finish on as anybody out there. I see him advancing with little issue.

Schiller v. Snyder has tremendous potential for the reversal of the previous outcome. Schiller fell to the Freshman in their dual meeting. Snyder dominated positionally and gave himself multiple opportunities to score before finally getting the clinching TD. Schiller is a definite darkhorse in the tournament. I’m going Snyder with plenty of caution.

I love watching Gadson wrestle. I think he takes out Burak with minimal issue. I don’t see a path to victory ofr Burak here. Gadson is on another level in all positions.

McIntosh will face one of last years biggest 197 surprises in Conner Hartmann. This is the first meeting between these two as far as I can tell. McIntosh dropped the ball last year for PSU in the early rounds. I think he’ll be more aware here and take care of business. He’s wrestling probably better than he has his entire career.

Semis:
Cox v. Snyder-Deep down I’m somewhat convinced we’ll never see this match. The fates just won’t have it. I’m going with it anyways. I think J’Den is a match up problem for Kyle personally. Snyder will struggle to get to the legs and even if he does finishing on J’Den is so incredibly hard to do. If Snyder can get J’Den worn out a touch and fires off frequent attacks it could be another story. It takes more than just one or two attacks to get J’Den down. I think it’s close, to be sure but J’Den punches his ticket to another finals.

I’ve always wanted to see Gadson and McIntosh lock up. Mainly because I have no idea what would happen. Some of the bigger 197’s give Morgan trouble. Gadson is up there as potentially one of the biggest. I like the big move potential of Gadson, though Morgan can be tough to open up in that way. I can’t remember watching Gadson defend low ankle attacks before, so it’ll be fun to watch how he defends those from Morgan. I’m going with Gadson on a hunch, but really there’s nothing that draws me strongly either way.

Finals:
We’ll have the 2014 Scuffle semi’s rematch with Cox v. Gadson. Neither guy did much in their first meeting but Gadson hit a beautiful throw by off of J’Den’s shot to get the win late. I think both have improved since that time, yet I feel J’Den has cemented himself as the man for this weight. His creativity and fluidity are really special for a guy of his size. There’s not much separating these two skill-wise. I think there’s something not measurable with J’Den that separates him here. I can’t put my finger on it, I just have confidence in his ability to find a way to win. My hope is both these guys let it fly because it could be a special finals with both guys tools on full display. I think J’Den gets it done with a TD or potentially a tough ride. J’Den goes 2 for 2.


CP’s Final Predictions:
1. J’Den Cox-Missouri
2. Kyven Gadson-Iowa State
3. Kyle Snyder-Ohio State
4. Morgan McIntosh-Penn State
5. Scott Schiller-Minnesota
6. Conner Hartmann-Duke
7. Nathan Burak-Iowa
8. Max Huntley-Michigan
Round of 12: Abe Ayala-Princeton(loses to Schiller), Alex Polizzi-Northwestern(loses to Huntley), Timmy McCall-Wisconsin(loses to Hartmann), Jace Bennet-Cornell(loses to Nathan Burak)


285


Early Round Drama:
Tavanello v. Walz in round one will be important to monitor from the team perspective for Ohio State. In round 2 I don’t see a ton of note to opine about. I expect most of the big guns to make it to the quarters.

Quarters:
I think Lawson takes out Kroells to set up a match against the champ Gwiazdowski. Gwiaz has responded excellently since losing in the All Star Classic to McMullan. Lawsons size and strength could slow Gwiaz down to an extent but his athleticism and persistence wins out and Gwiazdowski moves on.

I’m not sure if Marsden and Medbery have faced each other in Folkstyle before. Medbery maybe one of the most offensively diverse heavies we have. I said before he could be the best Non Freshman to not have All American status yet. I think he cements it here against Marsden. Marsden is extremely fundamental which could slow Medbery down a touch. I think point for point Medbery will have more opportunities. Don’t be surprised if this turns into a 6-5 match that was pretty fun. I like Medbery.

Adam Coon is 3-1 against Bobby Telford. Their last meeting, Coon won in Carver Hawkeye during tiebreakers. Telford tried to throw legs in and Coon got his hips high and reversed. Look for Telford to get to the legs early against Coon and not let it go so long this time around. Despite Coon’s success against Telford there hasn’t been a match either way that really suggests one guy is vastly superior. That’s why I like Telford here.

McMullan v. Cabell will be a blast because both guys are incredibly agile for heavyweights. Look for a lot of attacks from each guy but McMullan has Cabell in every position. Cabell’s aggression may work against him here. McMullan moves along in a fun, but not super close match.


Semis:
Gwiaz v. Medbery will be a dandy in my opinion. Both guys have tons of attacks. I believe Gwiazdowski is a superior scrambler and can convert Medbery’s attacks into his own points. That will ultimately be the difference in the bout. Give me Gwiazdowski by 2.

It’s fitting that McMullan and Telford duke it out one last time. These two have gone back and forth for years and it all comes to a head in the NCAA finals. Telford’s abillity to change his level and get to legs for someone his height is pretty incredible. He put it on full display in the Big 10 finals. McMullan found a way late last time. I think he just has one more answer to what Telford throws at him. McMullan winds up back in the finals.

Finals:
Yet another rematch, we’ll see Nick Gwiazdowski v. Mike McMullan in a rematch of the All Star Classic. I was pretty confident that Gwiazdowski would be able to scramble with McMullan. That was untrue, at least in that bout. Look for Gwiazdowski to be more persistent about getting to his high crotch. I think that is the attack he’s more likely to finish. This is a tremendously even bout in my estimation. Last time it was McMullan, I just think Gwiaz makes the adjustments (something we’ve seen him do before) and turn it around. Gwiaz gets it done for NC State!


CP’s Final Predictions:
1. Nick Gwiazdowski-NC State
2. Mike McMullan-Northwestern
3. Bobby Telford-Iowa
4. Connor Medbery-Wisconsin
5. Austin Marsden-Oklahoma State
6. Adam Coon-Michigan
7. Jimmy Lawson-Penn State
8. Blaize Cabell-Northern Iowa
Round of 12: Ty Walz-Virginia Tech(loses to Marsden), Devin Mellon-Missouri(loses to Lawson), Spencer Myers-Maryland(loses to Cabell), Mike Kroells-Minnesota(loses to Coon)


Team Race:
It’s a four team race and a tight one at that. Iowa, Missouri, Ohio State and Minnesota can all get the job done. I believe Iowa is the team that has the most bullets in the chamber. This could be a classic team race like we’ve seen the last two years coming down to Saturday AM matches! Based on my individual predictions the rubric predicted the following standings. These do not have bonus points of any kind factored in.


1. Iowa
2. Ohio State
3. Missouri
4. Minnesota
5. Cornell
6. Penn State
7. Virginia Tech
8. Wisconsin
9. Nebraska
10. Illinois

So there you have it.  Iowa takes the team title.  Every team has room for improvement from their potential predictions.  That's why you can't be surprised if these predictions are turned in their head.  Any small number of changes can completely alter the team race.  I'll whiff on a lot of these I expect, but it was a blast to do!