Often times we get bogged down in the “Who’s going to win it all” discussion.  I’m interested in showing a little more depth in this piece focusing more on all the teams in the mix for a trophy. The number of teams that are truly in the mix for a trophy may surprise you.

I poured through the brackets for the last 10 years and found a common thread for what it typically takes to earn a top 4 finish. I focused only on the 3 and 4 spots.

For the last 10 NCAA’s earning 3rd place had an average of 4.6 All Americans and exactly 1 champion. For 4th place it has been 4.4 All Americans and exactly 1 Champion. There were some instances where there were only 3 AA’s and a Champ as well as some with 4 AAs and no champ, but over the course of 10 years the formula is simple: If you get 4 AA’s and a champ, you’ll be in the mix for a title.

Here are the teams I think that have a shot. In no real particular order.

The Contenders:

Penn State
From now until the forseeable future they’re going to be in the mix. Rumors swirl that Cael will go all Oprah this year-”You get a redshirt! You get a redshirt! You get a redshirt!” If they let their massive Freshman class redshirt as well as Nico and Zain, that’ll be all she wrote. No 5-peat. However if they roll out Nico, Gulibon, Zain, Alton/Beitz, Alton, Rasheed, Brown, Nickal, McIntosh and Lawson/Gingrich that is a team of 10 solid guys. Post DT/Ruth will be tough and it’ll take contributions from all 10, but what I’ve observed about the NCAA team race is it’s more about wrestling up to your ability across the board than massively over-achieving. If they wrestle up to their ability, they’ll be in the mix. If they go the redshirt route, it’ll be a top 10 finish, but it’ll be tough to contend much higher.
Here’s what I’m expecting PSU to roll out.

125-Jordan Conaway
133-Jimmy Gulibon
141-Zain Retherford
149-Zach Beitz
157-Dylan Alton
165-Garrett Hammond
174-Matt Brown
184-Matt McCutcheon
197-Morgan McIntosh
285-Jon Gingrich

Criteria met? Absolutely. AA contenders with Conaway, Zain, Gulibon, Alton, Brown, McIntosh and Gingrich. With an outside shot at a title for Zain and Brown they certainly fit the criteria.

Ohio State
Tom Ryan has made no secret this is the year they have highlighted. They Have 3 hammers coming off of redshirt that will 100% produce in Tomasello, Hunter Stieber and Bo Jordan. Kyle Snyder is more college ready than anybody entering the fold as a True Freshman. They’ll likely roll out the following lineup:

125-Nathan Tomasello
133-Johnni DiJulius
141-Logan Stieber
149-Hunter Stieber
157-Josh Demas
165-Bo Jordan
174-Mark Martin
184-Kenny Courts
197-Kyle Snyder
285-Nick Tavanello

Criteria Met? In spades. They’ve got it all this year. AA potential everywhere you look and more than a few title contenders. This isn’t an article about who’s winning it all, it’s about the Trophy hunt, but this is a team that will challenge for the team title no question. I see at least 5 AA’s and a champion at a minimum. Up to 4 champs is possible as well. Maybe I’m a bit high on TOSU, who knows?

Iowa
Some project Iowa as the team to beat next year. I’m not going as far as others. They remind me a bit of the Ohio State team, minus the number of title contenders. The loss of Tony Ramos, Derek St. John and Ethen Lofthouse will be noticeable (moreso the first two than the latter). While Iowa has suitable replacements for all 3, only Sam Brooks is the guy that I believe can match the production of their predecessor. Here’s the lineup Iowa will likely roll out:

125-Thomas Gilman
133-Cory Clark
141-Josh Dziewa
149-Brandon Sorenson
157-Brody Grothus/Mike Kelly
165-Nick Moore
174-Mike Evans
184-Sammy Brooks
197-Nathan Burak
285-Bobby Telford

Criteria met? Yes. AA contenders with Gilman, Clark, Moore, Evans, Brooks, Burak and Telford. Telford and Evans may be title contenders or in that title contending tier. Gilman was one of 2 guys to beat Delgado last year. Definitely a trophy contender and title contender as well.

Oklahoma State
Two years running I’ve massively underrated the Cowboys heading into NCAA’s. Didn’t give them a shot 2 years ago when they were an Alan Gelogaev slip up away from a title. Didn’t even think they’d be in the mix last year at all where they made it incredibly interesting deep into the tournament. It’s quite clear Coach Smith is peaking his athletes when it matters most.

Do they lose a lot of points? No question. Chris Perry, Tyler Caldwell and Jon Morrison will be tremendous losses, difficult to replace. However, I think this lineup could be in the mix. The wrestler that is hard to project is Collica. He’s potentially too big for 141. Kindig is at 149 and Collica still has a redshirt.

125-Austin Miller
133-Dean Heil
141-Anthony Collica
149-Josh Kindig
157-Chance Marsteller
165-Alex Dieringer
174-Kyle Crutchmer
184-Nolan Boyd
197-Austin Schafer
285-Austin Marsden

Criteria met? Certainly. AA contenders with Kindig, Marsteller, Dieringer, Crutchmer and Marsden with Kindig and Dieringer title contenders. Still some unknowns with this lineup. Can Collica make 141 again? Will Heil and Marsteller live up to the hype? Don’t count out the Cowboys.

Minnesota
Every year they’re in the mix and I don’t anticipate this year would be much different. Though they won’t be as strong with the losses of Nelson, Thorn and Steinhaus, they have quality replacements in those weights.

125-Sam Brancale
133-Chris Dardanes
141-Nick Dardanes
149-Jake Short
157-Dylan Ness
165-Nick Wanzek
174-Logan Storley
184-Brett Pfarr
197-Scott Schiller
285-Michael Kroells

Criteria met? Big time. Dardanes, Dardanes,Ness, Storley, Pfarr all are likely All Americans in my opinion with a few of their other guys on the periphery. Chris Dardanes, Dylan Ness, Logan Storley and Scott Schiller will all be in the mix for titles as well.

Cornell
The Big Red are poised for a big year. They return tons of firepower in addition to adding some key contenders. Then there’s the ever-looming threat of the Cornell break-out guy you never saw coming. Last year it was Gabe Dean, the year before that Nahshon and I could go on and on. Cornell has flexibility in some areas that makes it somewhat difficult to predict which direction they’ll go. Here’s a crack at it:

125-Nahshon Garrett
133-Nick Arujau
141-Mark Grey
149-Chris Villalonga
157-Brian Realbuto
165-Dylan Palacio
174-Owen Scott
184-Gabe Dean
197-Jace Bennett
285-Jacob Aiken Phillips

Criteria met? Yep. Nahshon, Grey, Villalonga, Realbuto, Palacio and Dean are all potential All Americans with Nahshon and Dean legit title contenders. If Cornell gets a few guys to step up they could be in the mix for more than just a trophy.


Edinboro
Then there’s the team that returns the most points of any team from a year ago, the Fighting Scots. Where they’re good, they’re very good. However, there will be a few spots that could potentially limit their upside moving forward as they look to push for a trophy or more. They have legit title contenders with Schopp and potentially Port, though I don’t see him as someone who can take out Logan. Habat caught fire at NCAA’s, but is that who he is long term? 149 could have went 100 different directions. It was a nice tournament, but I’d like to see a bit more consistency before I predict a repeat of last years finish for him. The Fighting Scots get a key addition at 157 as Austin Matthews transfers from Clarion (which appears to be a bit of a trend at this point, for whatever reason).
Here’s a shot at what Edinboro could look like this year.

125-Kory Mines
133-AJ Schopp
141-Mitchell Port
149-Dave Habat
157-Austin Matthews
165-Kasey Burnett
174-Patrick Jennings
184-Vic Avery
197-Vince PIckett
285-Billy Miller

Criteria Met? Barely. Schopp, Port and Habat are likely AA’s while Matthews and Avery are potential AA’s. If Schopp and Port can earn titles obviously that’d go a long way in their trophy push. Edinboro needs help from their other 5 weights to move up.

Nebraska
The Cornhuskers will come into this year with a ton of experience with a few key newcomers set to plug into key spots. They already return a ton of talent,and more than anything they return hungry talent. James Green was the best guy all year long for the most part, but when it mattered most he fell a bit short. Look at the tear he went on the backside after falling to Ness. Expect more of the same. Jake Sueflohn is probably the best guy yet to place in their career. He’s got one more shot to get on the podium and I think he will get it done. Robert Kokesh is the favorite in my mind to win 174. What he did with one knee was admirable. He’ll be healthy and with Perry and Howe out of the mix, I think he’s the guy to beat.

Potential Lineup:
125-Tim Lambert
133-Eric Montoya/Colton McCrystal
141-Anthony Abidin
149-Jake Sueflohn
157-James Green
165-Austin Wilson
174-Robert Kokesh
184-TJ Dudley
197-Spenser Johnson
285-Collin Jensen

Criteria met? I think so. Sueflohn, Green, Kokesh and Dudley I expect to place with Green and Kokesh as potential title contenders. Guys like Lambert and Abidin could be in the mix but will need some substantial improvement to place. This team would hit right on the nose of the 4 AA’s and a champ criteria.

Virginia Tech
Call me a VA homer, I can take it. There’s some real firepower coming back and being added to an already tough team. They’re going to roll out a complete lineup full of tough guys who can compete at the D1 level. Take a look, then I’ll elaborate.

125-Joey Dance
133-Kevin Norstrem
141-Solomon Chishko
149-Devin Carter
157-Nick Brascetta
165-Chris Moon
174-Zach Epperly
184-Austin Gabel
197-Bobby Lavelle/Jared Haught
285-Ty Walz

Criteria Met? Absolutely. AA contenders with Dance, Carter,Brascetta and Epperly not to mention talent like Chishko, Norstrem, and Walz that could push for AA status with improvement. Carter is a title contender at 149. VT needs him to win if they’re going to push for a trophy and Dance will need to be much more consistent. The Hokies can get it done on the right day.

Northwestern
A lot of this depends on what direction Coach Pariano elects to go. If he redshirts his monster recruiting class of Micic, Brill and Sebastian, this will be a tough year. If they wrestle, watch out.
Take a look:

125-Stevan Micic
133-Dom Malone
141-Pat Greco
149-Jason Tsirtsis
157-Bryce Brill
165-Pierce Harger
174-Johnny Sebastian
184-Mitch Sliga
197-Alex Polizzi
285-Mike McMullan

Criteria met? Not really, but their title contending talent makes them worth mentioning. They have 2 title contenders in Tsirtsis and McMullan with Harger coming of an AA finish as well. Now they’ll need one of the young guys to step up as the 4th AA as well if this team is going to come home with hardware.

Missouri
There’s tons of talent in the fold for Missouri and they will be a team to be reckoned with next year. Cox, Houdashelt and Waters will be the guys they look to for key contributions. These three are surrounded by a collection of talent that could thrust the Tigers into the top 4. Have a look.

125-Alan Waters
133-Matt Manley
141-Lavion Mayes
149-Drake Houdashelt
157-Joey Lavallee
165-Ty Prazma
174-Mike England
184-John Eblen
197-J’den Cox
285-Devon Mellon

Criteria Met? For sure. Title contenders with Waters, Houdashelt and Cox alongside guys like Mayes, Eblen and Lavallee who have shown AA potential. The key will be how well their big dogs do and if one of those 2nd tier guys steps up.

Michigan
A lot of opions with this lineup as well. Massa coming off of redshirt is a big piece.  Will they wrestle Pantaleo right away? Hard to tell right now what the plan will be.  
125-Connor Youtsey
133-Rossi Bruno
141-Stephen Dutton
149-Alec Pantaleo?
157-Brian Murphy
165-Taylor Massa
174-Davonte Mahomes
184-Domenic Abounader
197-Max Huntley
285-Adam Coon

Criteria Met? Yes. I won’t lie, I don’t know who is going 149 or 174 for Michigan. However, it doesn’t change the fact that this is a team in the mix for a trophy. Title contenders with Adam Coon and AAs possible from Abounader, Dutton, Massa and Murphy. They’ll need guys to step up and wrestle at their absolute best to get the trophy, but this is a team filled with talent.

Illinois
125-Jesse Delgado
133-Zane Richards
141-Steven Rodrigues
149-Caleb Ervin
157-Isaiah Martinez
165-Jackson Morse
174-Zac Brunson
184-Nikko Reyes
197-Jeff Koepke
285-Brooks Black

Criteria met? I believe so. Perhaps the biggest stretch. They have a likely champion with Delgado and potential All American’s with Richards and Martinez. They’ll need some guys llike Rodrigues, Ervin, Black or Morse to step up and be AA contenders if this team wants to push for a trophy. Those unknowns make Illinois a tough call.

Lehigh
125-Scott Parker
133-Mason Beckman
141-Randy Cruz
149-Laike Gardner
157-Mitch Minotti
165-Santiago Martinez
174-Marshall Peppelman
184-Nate Brown
197-Elliot Riddick
285-Max Wessell

Criteria met? Yes. With title contenders like Beckman and Brown (yeah I said it) in addition to talents like Minotti (returning AA) Riddick, Wessell and Cruz this team can definitely contend. Like many of the teams I’ve recently mentioned, they’ll need to get optimal performances on all fronts.

Iowa State
125-Kyle Larson
133-Earl Hall
141-John Meeks
149-Gabe Moreno
157-Danny Woiwor
165-Mike Moreno
174-Tanner Weatherman
184-Lelund Weatherspoon
197-Kyven Gadson
285-Quean Smith

Criteria met? I believe so here as well. They have a title contender with Kyven Gadson and have good shots at AA”s with Hall, Moreno and Weatherman. Weatherspoon and Meeks are talents who will need to show up at the big dance for a team like ISU to find itself in the hunt for a trophy.

Virginia
Call me a VA homer again, I can STILL take it.

125-Nick Herrman
133-George DiCamillo
141-Joe Spisak
149-TJ Miller
157-Gus Sako
165-Nick Sulzer
174-Blaise Butler
184-Tyler Askey
197-Zach Nye
285-Ethan Hayes

Criteria met?  I'm not sure.  They've got the title contender in Sulzer, but theyve got some unknows as well.  I think DiCamillo, Spisak, Sako and Butler have ALL shown AA potential and have very impressive wins.  Zach Nye has wins over AA's Conner Hartmann and Blake Rosholt.  Talents such as TJ Miller and Tyler Askey will need to pan out as well for the Cavs if they want to make a push.  Maybe it's a stretch but the talent is there!


So there's a whopping 15 teams.  The crazy thing is that more teams could emerge as stars emerge from unknown spots.  The team race will be a blast to watch all season long.  Who'd I miss!?