How long has it been since Illinois didn't win Junior Freestyle at National Duals?

Well, it wasn't even in this decade.

The monster squad from the Land of Lincoln won JR FS every year since 2010. It was only in 2009, when they took 7th, that they failed to hoist the trophy. And they made the finals in both styles ever since.

But to get to their 5th straight title, they're going to have their work cut out for them.

Ever see a bracket where a team CAN win, but running the gauntlet will be a tough row to hoe? That's what Illinois is staring at when National Duals begin in Freestyle on Friday morning in Oklahoma City.

Below are the six teams we consider to be the highest seeds. While Illinois won't have to hit them all, they will have to run through two or three of them.

	Illinois	Oklahoma	Michigan	New Jersey	Minnesota	Utah
100	Louie Hayes	Mason Naifeh	Dom Lajoie	Daniel Percelay	Victor Gliva	Brandon Meikel
106	Kirk Johansen	Kaden Gfeller	Dalton Roberts	B. Paetzell	Alex Crowe	Bryce Brimhall
113	Nick Lukanich	Andrew Neiman	Parker/Freeman	Ty Agaisse	Brent Jones	Nelson Jones
120	Kyle Akins	Dalton Duffield	Kanen Storr	Michael Russo	Skyler Petry	Tanner Cox
126	A. Merholz	Kaid Brock	Lincoln Olson	Chaz Tucker	Mitchell McKee	Taylor LaMont
132	S. Polakowski	Harding/Moore	Cole Weaver	Anthony Giraldo	Tommy Thorn	Lukas Erickson
138	Alex Butler	Sheets/Moran	Oliver/Storr	Joey McKenna	James Berg	Dusty Hone
145	Isaiah White	Jonce Blaylock	Zac Hall	Jordan Kutler	Mark Voss	Matt Findlay
152	Larry Early	Jo Jo Smith	Myles Amine	Mason Manville	Brady Berge	J. O’Hearon
160	Bryce Brill	Jacobe Smith	Logan Massa	C. Stackhouse	Paden Moore	Brooks Robinson
170	Kamal Bey	Chandler Rogers	Zienkeiwicz	Josef Johnson	Mark Hall	S. Heywood
182	Nathan Traxler	Lance Dixon	Ty Wildmo	Myles Martin	Keegan Moore	Kimball Bastian
195	Tyler Johnson	Joel Dixon	Jake McKeirnan	Jeff Velez	R. Steveson	Jacob Armstrong
220	A. Marsden	Kyler Childers	Landon Pelham	C. Colucci	Paul Cheney	Roy Nash
285	Adarios Jones	Andrew Dixon	Ryan Prescott	Will Cooley	Luis Pinto	Mortensen

Because of their incredibly balanced line-up, their renowned preparation, and their track record of success, Illinois will enter the tournament as, if not the favorite, a serious title contender.

But as in other age groups, and other recent years, it will be far from a foregone conclusion. In my estimation, this is a match-up based field where 1 or 2 individual scoring positions can change the outcome of in several duals.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Illinois - As noted above, they're incredibly balanced. From 100 through heavyweight there are zero holes. That being said, Oklahoma is a match-up nightmare for IL where even their ranked guys at the end of the line-up will be, at least on paper, underdogs.

Oklahoma - With the Dixon brothers anchoring the backhalf of the line-up, OK is in a great position. The danger for them will be in duals with Michigan and New Jersey where, despite their wickedly talented lightweights, MI and NJ counters with straight up hammers.

Michigan - The middle of their line-up is staight up nasty. They could legitimately win six or seven bouts against Illinois in a row. For them to get by the big dogs in the field, they'll have to limit damage where they're decided underdogs as match-ups present themselves. 

New Jersey - Sneaky good with elite guys from 106 to 182. If these projected seeds hold, they'd match up with Minnesota in Pool D finals. Make no mistake about it, this team could win it all.

Minnesota - Just nasty from 132 through 195. And for as young as they are down low, they all have national freestyle credentials. Minnesota will go as far as their lightweights take them. They're the X factor.

Utah - In recent years, Utah has really became a force in FS/GR. And though you might not recognize some of the names here, there are very few easy outs in this line-up. I don't think they are serious contenders to win it all, but they sure have the ability to ruin someone's weekend.


Predictions

It's really tough to gauge. Seeding will be key, and duals will be match-up dependent. For instance, I might take Oklahoma to beat Illinois, Illinois to beat New Jersey, and New Jersey to beat Oklahoma. With Michigan somewhere in the middle and Minnesota not making a run, but pulling an upset somewhere.

With 15 weights, it will be a race to 8 wins (bonus points withstanding).

Going by my own projected seeds...

Illinois and Oklahoma walk to the Gold Bracket from Pools A and B.

Michigan over Utah in an entertaining Pool C final.

In Day I's best dual, New Jersey dominates the middle weights and limits damage up to to get past Minnesota.

Gold Bracket Pool A - Illinois, New Jersey, Utah, At-Large Team (Runner-Up, Pool B)
Illinois and New Jersey will be nip and tuck. New Jersey is favored (at least by me) ever so slightly from a stretch from 126 through 152. 

Swing Matches:
106: Johansen-Paetzell 
113: Lukanich-Agaisse
152: Early-Manville
195: Johnson-Velez
220: Marsden-Colucci

The Bottom Line: The key for New Jersey is winning a couple they shouldn't. I see seven wins for NJ on paper. They'll need them all plus a win from either Velez or Colucci. I think they're 'this close' to Illinois. But I also think Illinois wants it more, and pulls off some magic somewhere of their own. 

Willie's Pick: Illinois over New Jersey, 8 matches to 7.

Gold Bracket Pool B - Oklahoma, Michigan, Minnesota, At-Large Team (Runner-Up, Pool A)
As you would expect from the 2, 3, and 5 seeds, it's going to be razor thin. I'll keep this short and sweet; Oklahoma is too balanced and has too much fire power at the bookends for either MI or MN to knock them off. All they need to do is win a couple in the middle (which they're more than capable of doing) and take care of business where they're strongest. I think they sweep the last 5 matches against Michigan.

Willie's Pick: Oklahoma over Michigan, 9 matches to 6


The Finals: Illinois vs. Oklahoma

Swing Matches
113: Lukanich-Nieman
138: Butler-Moran
152: Early-Smith
182 thru 285

The Breakdown:
There are clear favorites in the lower weights. Will everything go according to script? It rarely does. But going with the favorites means one thing: this dual will come down to the upperweights. The Dixons and Childers vs. Traxler, Johnson, Marsden, and Jones.

Here's how I have it:

	Illinois	Oklahoma	Willie’s Pick	Team Score
100	Louie Hayes	Mason Naifeh	Hayes Tech	4-0 IL
106	Kirk Johansen	Kaden Gfeller	Gfeller Dec.	5-3 IL
113	Nick Lukanich	Andrew Neiman	Lukanich Dec.	8-4 IL
120	Kyle Akins	Dalton Duffield	Akins Dec.	11-5 IL
126	A. Merholz	Kaid Brock	Brock Tech	11-9 IL
132	S. Polakowski	Harding/Moore	OK Dec.	12-12
138	Alex Butler	Sheets/Moran	Moran Dec.	15-13 OK
145	Isaiah White	Jonce Blaylock	White Dec.	16-16
152	Larry Early	Jo Jo Smith	Smith Dec.	19-17 OK
160	Bryce Brill	Jacobe Smith	Brill Tech	21-19 IL
170	Kamal Bey	Chandler Rogers	Rogers Dec	22-22
182	Nathan Traxler	Lance Dixon	Dixon Dec	25-23 OK
195	Tyler Johnson	Joel Dixon	Dixon Dec	28-24 OK
220	A. Marsden	Kyler Childers	Childers Dec	31-25 OK
285	Adarios Jones	Andrew Dixon	Jones Dec	32-28 OK

This is going to be wild. Don't miss the Bracket Finals Friday and Gold Pool Rounds on Saturday, LIVE ON FLO PRO.