Dark Horses and Letdowns 
Christian Pyles

Some of what makes this tournament so exciting is the ever-looming possibility of an upset. Seeing a Top 3 seed fall, or an unseeded guy crash the semi’s or earn All American honors is always a dramatic and enthralling moment.

The fact is that this tournament is extremely talent-rich. While the seeded guys have done the things to separate themselves, the difference between an unseeded wrestler and a seeded one at times is not as vast as we might think. 

Going through each weight, I’m going to give you both darkhorses (unseeded guys or very low seeds who can crash the party and make a nice run) and letdowns (highly seeded guys who I think could potentially enter the backside a bit early and/or not place). 

As a disclaimer, do not consider my “potential letdowns” as any sort of sign of disrespect towards these guys. I admire how great all of these guys are. This is simply my opinion of a number of factors they will be up against (draw, health, experience in competitive matches) and how I think they could possibly lose. 

125 Dark Horses:
Earl Hall-Iowa State-I feel like I keep getting sucked in by Earl. Was watching some of his matches this week and couldn’t be more impressed. His draw, while full of tough competition is quite navigable. He’ll have the offensively challenged Evan Silver in rd 1. Then 4 seed Josh Martinez, who he’s beaten, then Dylan Peters, who he was up 4 or 5 on late in the match until he got pancaked. Hall was dreadful at conferences, so this could look absurd after the fact, but I promise you it isn’t.
Eddie Klimara-Ok State- As the 14 seed I like Eddie’s draw. He’s a talented kid with a winnable round 1 match. However, I think his path to place is easier if he drops his first one. A round 1 win, and subsequent loss to Nico will put him on the path to get the Delgado/Clark loser. Not where I’d want to be. A round 1 loss he’ll have tough guys, but he avoids that hammer. He’ll likely see Cruz, Hall, Lambert and Ryan Taylor in the round of 12. All good guys, but guys Eddie can hang with. Probably round of 12 is the ceiling for Eddie.
Nathan Kraisser-UNC-He’s unseeded but has a win over his round 1 match up last year. If he’s like he was last year, he’ll be a nightmare. If he is more/less the same guy he was all year, it will be a disappointing show.

125 Potential Let Down: 
Jarrod Patterson-Oklahoma-Didn’t get to watch him at conferences, but the time away makes me wonder how healthy he is. He’s got a nice draw to the quarters, but I think Nico finds a way to win. Should he lose there, he gets the loser of the the nasty Cox v. Clark round 2 match. That will be a blood bath in the rd of 12. 

133 Dark Horses:
Nick Soto-UTC-I was critical of his seed. 10 was a gift for Nick. That being said, his draw is favorable. He shouldn’t have much issue in round 1, then he’ll face Quiroga who he beat earlier this year. Now, I don’t want to face Cashe after that conference tournament he just had. However, consistency and Cashe have rarely gone hand in hand. A potential winnable match putting Soto in the quarters. If Soto falls to Cashe his draw is really quite nice til the round of 12. 

I really don’t like too many guys to break through. Here are my quarterfinal losers that will be in the round of 12: Morrison, Thorn, Beckman and Quiroga. I don’t see a vulnerable guy there. 

133 Potential Let Downs: I don’t see any. Of course there will probably be one. However, predicting it is quite difficult. The top 8 here have been hammers all year and there’s little reasoning to suggest one of these guys are ready for it to all fall apart. You could say Quiroga, but as good as he’s looked, he’s more of a dark horse than anything.

141 Dark Horses:
Edgar Bright-Pitt-I’ve been going hard in the paint for Edgar since jump street! I love watching this guy wrestle. He’s got tough guys all the way through, but I still think he can make some noise. Zain in rd 2 is tough, but shoot, he lost by 1 earlier this year. Better than facing Carter, right? If he loses to Zain his draw is really tough, but I think he could negotiate it: Dziewa, Lazor and then Vaith in the round of 12. Vaith didn’t look great at EIWA’s (though he’s really friggin’ jacked). 
Ugi Khishingnyam-Citadel-A little #humblebrag on my part is that I can now spell Ugi’s last name without looking. NBD. Anyways, pretty freaking stoked that Ugi is in the mix here. Always loved watching him. I don’t like his round 1 with Zain, but after that, I think he’s got winnable matches throughout! He’ll have a long road back, but I believe in him. He’ll have a consolation pig tail against Moreno (who beat him), then Scotton, Dutton, Shy Brown, and I think Todd Preston in the round of 12. Maybe I’m a bit naive about Ugi considering he doesn’t have a ranked win all year. I just have a feeling about him. 

141 Potential Let Downs:
Evan Henderson-UNC- A few factors: 1) Henderson hasn’t been great lately. 2) His draw is stupid. He’ll have Vaith in rd 2, then listen to his likely wrestle back path: Horan/Preston loser, Spisak then Dardanes in the round of 12. Like the puppy dog said: ROUGH! I mean he is the 9 seed, so him not placing is technically expected. 
Zach Horan-CMU-Brutal draw for Horan. Nevinger in round 1, Preston in round 2 is no pic nic either. Either one of those guys could knock Zach off and you shouldn’t bat an eye. Depending on when he loses his draw improves/becomes tougher. If he makes it to the quarter, he should have Ugi. Not bad. If he loses to Preston in rd2, he’ll likely have Mecate. Not good. If Nevinger beats him he’ll have Henderson in round 2 of consolations! #NoBueno
Chris Mecate-ODU-Mecate’s style worries me to an extent. It keeps him in matches, but it can burn him as well. He’s a bit too defensive for my liking. While he’s tough to score on, he can have some trouble getting his own offense going. In round 2 he gets the winner of Brown and Durso. Potential upset match there. In my heart of hearts I think he’s one of the best 8 guys, but I’ve seen guys with his style leave NCAA’s empty handed before.

149 Dark Horses:
Josh Kindig-Oklahoma State-2nd Cowboy in this list. Just keeping it real, the bottom half of 149 is not even close to the level the top side is. What does that mean? Bracket busting potential. Kindig’s draw is still tough considering he’d have Sueflohn in rd 2 followed by Villalonga. I just think he’s on their level caliber-wise. Should he lose to Sueflohn (which I believe is very likely) he’ll have the Cottrell/Grothus loser, Sakaguchi and probably Grajales in the round of 12. Not bad right? 
Lenny Richardson-ODU- Really came on lately. Beat Claxton and pushed Houdashelt to the brink (for the 2nd time this year). Very tough guy to score on. I think he makes the round of 12 as a 16 seed which is no small feat. He’ll likely have the Sueflohn/Villalonga loser so it’s goodnight sweetheart after that one. Still, there’s some upside with him. 

149 Potential Let Downs:
Gus Sako-UVA-Love watching this guy wrestle, but his seed was unwarranted. The thing about Gus is that he’s got an amazing draw to the quarters. He really dominated Neibert last time they knocked heads. Dardanes sends him to the round of 12 where he’ll get someone like Grothus or English. I don’t know, I just didn’t think he looked great at ACC’s. His draw is extremely favorable, I just see him faltering somewhere down the line. 

157 Dark Horses:
Brian Murphy-Michigan-This kid is the real deal. Competitive with everyone with some really high quality wins. His defensive style could be an interesting matchup against Miller in round 2. Not claiming an upset there, just an interesting match. Or Miller could launch him, ha. His wrestle back path is amazing if he loses to Miller having LaValee, Smith and potentially Butler/Realbuto in the round of 12. That’s pretty nice, right? 


157 Potential Let Downs:
Brian Realbuto-Cornell-Yeah, hated his seed. Apparently the committee was feeling especially charitable with the 7 seed this year. Brian lost to Perrotti and Schediel. Last Week! 1 win over a seeded wrestler: Pena. He’ll have Butler in round 2 likely, and even if he doesn’t have Butler, he’ll have Perrotti again who has beaten him twice already this year. If he falls in round 2 he’ll have to go through Scheidel, Pack and Isaac Jordan in the round of 12. If he can make the quarters his lot in life improves as he’ll face Murphy or Smith in the round of 12. 
Nestor Taffur-Boston-Even though Nestor has reached Junkyard Dog status from Zeb Miler, I’m not so sure about his ability to navigate this draw. Great kid with a cool story, but Walsh in round 2 is frightening. If he loses to Walsh he’ll have Tristan Warner, Alton then Ness in the round of 12. If he beats Walsh, he should be in the clear to place facing someone like Pena or Napoli in the round of 12. Sounds a lot better than the Ness/Green loser, right?

165 Dark Horses:
Danny Zilverberg-Minnesota-I’ve always been a fan, and really thought Zilverberg would have a good year at 165. It hasn’t been that way, but after placing 3rd at Big 10’s, I feel a lot better about him. Though his draw is a bit cruddy since he has Caldwell in round 2, I still think he has the potential to go far. He’ll get the Cooper Moore/Harger loser, then likely Steven Monk in the round of 12. That’s not a good matchup for Zilverberg, but I still think he can make it very interesting from the 15 spot. 

Dylan Palacio-Cornell-From the 14 seed I think things shape up alright for Dylan. Though he has Sulzer who is fairly funk-proof with his finishes, I think Palacio’s wrestle back path is alright, albeit difficult. Casey Kent, Turtogtokh then Booth in the round of 12. If he can get to the round of 12, flip a coin. He and Booth are very, very close.

165 Potential Let Downs: 
Corey Mock-UTC-That 30-3 record is pretty salty, but he really hasn’t notched a “wow” win as of yet. He’ll be tested right away by Peyton Walsh of Navy. Then he’ll face a familiar opponent in Turtogtokh whom he’s had success against. Sulzer dominated him last time around, which will send Mock to the round of 12. He’ll get someone like Moreno, who I think could be a tough matchup for Mock. Moreno is good on the mat as well and probably better on his feet. 

174 Dark Horses: I’d be shocked if anyone broke inside this top 6. But there are some guys who could make some noise and slide in the last 2 spots. 

Bryce Hammond-CSU Bakersfield-He’s not amazing, but he’s been solid all year. He’ll fall to Evans in round 1, but his path to place is pretty good. Mark Martin, Stephen Doty and likely Cody Walters in the round of 12. If there’s going to be a surprising AA, it’s going to be someone coming through that path, and I think it’ll be Hammond. 

174 Potential Let Downs:
I really don’t see any. Sure some of the 7-10 guys won’t place, but that happens.

184 Dark Horses: 
Dominic Abounader-Michigan-Who (apart from Ruth) really wants to see this guy? Amazing run at Big 10’s beating Dudley, Courts and Steinhaus. His draw is pretty nice and though he’d be an underdog against Sheptock, I really think he could challenge him there! If he falls on the round of 12 he’ll likely face someone like Lorenzo Thomas or Rizqallah. I think he beats them and places as a true freshman! I think he could challenge Thomusseit and potentially place as high as 5th. He’s that good. 

184 Potential Let Downs:
Jimmy Sheptock-Maryland-I’m not saying the guy won’t place, I’m saying the potential for disappointment is there. Now the kid beat Dean, Lofthouse and Steinhaus this year, so I could be sleeping big time. I just think he’s outside the top 3. 

197 Dark Horses:
Nathan Burak-Iowa-The draw is nice for him, plain and simple. I don’t like his top side draw, as I see him falling to Perry with little issue. Then he’ll face guys like Ayala, Penny and Wellington. I think he can beat all those guys and place. But I’ve been wrong about Burak before.

197 Potential Let Downs: 
I love the top 5 guys here and think they’re all hammers. McIntosh is the one guy who could fall off, but I really don’t see it happening given the season he’s had.

285 Dark Horses:
Bobby Telford-Iowa-I still think he can win a title. His draw is brutal, but I think he could make the finals. This weight has been back and forth all year. Nelson won the way we’re used to seeing him win at Big 10’s, but he’s vulnerable. 

285 Potential Let Downs:
Nick Gwiazdowski-NC State-People probably think I don’t like Gwiaz. It couldn’t be further from the truth. Back when I was just another message board dork I was very high on Gwiaz coming into his True Freshman year. Whaddya know, he placed. Anyways. I just don’t think he’s battle tested, and I don’t think his wins merit the 2 seed. Having the 2 gave him a fine draw, however, so missing the semi’s will be tough to do. However, he’ll still hit McClure in the Quarters and Chalfant in the semi’s. I really don’t see him making the finals.