Fi: Complete NCAA Preview

Mar 17, 2014 by Christian Pyles

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NCAA Insider Preview
Christian Pyles

It’s almost here ya’ll. I’ve been excited to write this article all year! I’ll do my best to take you through this tournament, highlight the big matches and let you know who I think’s going to place where and why. This was the hardest preview to write because of the rampant ambiguity in so many of these weights. 149, 197 and 285 especially. Guys I pick to get 5th in some weights could win it all and not surprise me a bit. Lots of parity at this level and that's all the more reason to get EXCITED about this years finish.

125

Jesse Delgado-Illinois
Nahshon Garrett-Cornell
Nico Megaludis-Penn State
Dylan Peters-UNI
Cory Clark-Iowa
Jarrod Patterson-Oklahoma
Ryan Taylor-Wisconsin
Josh Martinez-Air Force

Round of 12: David Terao-American loses to Martinez, Eddie Klimara-Ok State loses to Clark, Earl Hall-Iowa State loses to Taylor, Tyler Cox-Wyoming loses to Patterson

Jesse Delgado-When I watch Nahshon Garrett I truly think he is better. However, Delgado’s match management ability and his track record of success against Garrett makes me unable to pick against Jesse. He has mastered winning ugly, he can toe the line between countering and stalling masterfully. I think he’s the guy.

Nahshon Garrett-As I said before, I watch him and think he’s better. I really do. However, styles make fights, and for whatever reason Jesse does well against Nahshon. Nahshon has dominated Megaludis twice, and while that will be a lights out semi, I really think Nahshon’s offense is on another level.

Nico Megaludis-He was my preseason pick to win it all, but I have to back off that prediction. He will have a tough quarter if Patterson is back to form, but he should be fine. He doesn’t have the defense to keep Nashon at bay. I still think he’s a lock for 3rd. It’s not easy for me to pick against Nico here given his NCAA track record, but I think realistically picking him to beat Garrett is silly.

Dylan Peters-I really don’t think he’s the 4th best guy, but I think his draw is pretty nice. I think he beats Martinez to make the semi and he’ll have a less than 100% patterson to get to the 4th place match. Simple as that.

Cory Clark-X Factor, dark horse, whatever you want to call it, he’s it. Clark is the ultimate boom or bust guy for this weight. He could put Delgado down into the losers bracket. I’d take him over Peters all day, but I don’t think they’ll hit. I think Clark loses to Delgado and Nico but beats Patterson (who he beat last year) for 5th.

Jarrod Patterson-It’s always hard to predict guys with health issues. Patterson is good enough to get 4th really. He’ll have Tyler Cox in the round of 12. Patterson dominated Cox at Vegas, but that was a long time ago and Cox is red hot. Very possible Patterson doesn’t place, but I think he figures out a way.

Ryan Taylor-The very talented Freshman who’s been consistent all year. He stuck Terao last time around, but I am not sure how that fall materialized. That’ll be a tough round 2 match, but I like his draw to place if he best Terao. He’ll have someone like Lambert or Hall in the round of 12 to place before falling to Patterson in the next round of consolations (a match I fully acknowledge he could win).

Josh Martinez-He’s got a tough draw and his season didn’t end on a high note, falling to Cox. He’s got top 4 potential, I just see him falling to Peters and Clark.

Round of 12 thoughts: Terao v. Martinez will be exciting, but Martinez controlled him last time. Clark should have no problem with Klimara. Taylor over Hall seems expected. Cox v. Patterson will be insane, best believe Cox will throw the kitchen sink.

133

Tony Ramos-Iowa
Joe Colon-UNI
AJ Schopp-Edinboro
Tyler Graff-Wisconsin
Jon Morrison-Oklahoma State
Mason Beckman-Lehigh
Cashe Quiroga-Purdue
David Thorn-Minnesota

Round of 12: Nick Soto-UTC loses to Morrison, Ryan Mango-Stanford loses to Thorn, Cody Brewer-Oklahoma loses to Quiroga, Johnni Dijulius-Ohio State loses to Beckman

Tony Ramos-Yeah yeah, I’m a dummy. He lost to Schopp and was dominated by Colon and I have him beating both. I am normally not a “gut feeling” kinda guy. I like measurable stuff and rationale. I just always felt Ramos was one of the best guys at making adjustments to his opponents. Tactics and strategy are not necessarily measurable, but I think we’ll notice some big changes in tactics this tournament.

Joe Colon-Nobody has looked better all year, and nobody has better wins. I fully acknowledge all of this. Colon’s draw is tough! Thorn in the quarter will be no picnic, as I don’t see Thorn getting horsed around in those underhooks. Then Graff in the semi, though he’s had success with him, will be a tough one. Colon’s the favorite, and I’m not picking him. I’m not sure why either.

AJ Schopp-AJ has jumped levels as much as anyone in the country this year. He’s so absurdly good on top and tough to score on. I would be quite surprised to see him lower than 3rd.

Tyler Graff-Graff is just one of those guys who has always been great, but never really made many improvements in his game. He’s great on his feet with attacks and finishes, but his struggles underneath and his tank put a cap on how high he can finish.

Jon Morrison-Morrison is much improved this year, though this placement may not show it. He’s awesome on his feet and has a nice ride on top as well. He is a potential darkhorse to make the finals. I think Colon would really struggle with Morrison, but I have him falling to Graff in the quarter.

Mason Beckman-The young buck amongst all the veterans here. Only a Sophomore but I think his style is well suited for the rigors of NCAA. He doesn’t let it fly as much as I’d like to see, but he’s A) very hard to score on and B) nails on top. His sweep is lethal as well. He’ll likely have DiJulius in the round of 12 which will be a tough matchup. Of the 4 round of 12 matches, I think that’s the one hanging most in the balance.

Cashe Quiroga-Maybe the darkhorse on the bottom side. If he’s consistent he could pull some big upsets. Maybe the best overall athlete from a strength/speed perspective in the bracket. If he’s anything like he was at Big 10’s it’s tough to see him not placing.

David Thorn-He’s had an awesome year. Better than I thought he would. I truly think he can challenge Colon. Time will tell, but I see him falling there and then to Morrison after winning in the round of 12.

Round of 12 Thoughts: The Graff/Morrison loser will cruise over Soto or someone of that ilk. Thorn should have little issue with Mango. Quiroga and Brewer is very interesting, but Quiroga has beaten him before. Beckman over Johnni could go 10 different ways.

141

Logan Stieber-Ohio State
Mitchell Port-Edinboro
Zain Retherford-Penn State
Devin Carter-Virginia Tech
Chris Mecate-Old Dominion
Chris Dardanes-Minnesota
Edgar Bright-Pittsburgh
Ugi Khishignyam-Citadel

Round of 12: Zach Horan-CMU loses to Mecate, Luke Vaith-Hofstra loses to Bright, Todd Preston-Harvard loses to Ugi, Evan Henderson-UNC loses to Dardanes

Logan Stieber-Not much to say that I haven’t already said. He’s always been the best here, his loss to Zain didn’t change anything in my mind about his NCAA prospects. He won’t have much issue at any point winning.

Mitchell Port-Most underrated guy in the country potentially. His quiet nature, his low-key schedule and his school keep him somewhat under the radar but he’s good. Big as a barn, strong, and a truly complete wrestler. Some may think Carter has a shot against him in the semi’s but I couldn’t disagree any stronger. Bad matchup for Carter. I didn’t give him a shot against another Stieber last year and it burnt me. But Hunter ain’t Logan.

Zain Retherford-Would love to see he and Port tangle. I don’t know who I’d favor. It is very possible Zain is the 2nd best guy but somehow he and Logan beating each other up this year puts them on the same side (though Port hasn’t beaten Logan, Zain or Carter this year). His positioning and top game make him extremely dangerous. Carter will try to beat him up and horse him around, but I think Zain is so excellent positionally that Carter won’t be able to open him up. I think Zain gets in on his single and finishes on Devin for 3rd place.

Devin Carter-One of my favorite guys to watch. I think he has no trouble making the semi’s but I don’t like the matchup against Port. He won’t be horsed around by Devin. Interestingly, Port beat him at Powerade back in their high school days. Despite his injury I think his final placement prospects have not been impacted in my opinion.

Chris Mecate-Mecate was one of my potential let down guys but I still think he has a good shot at placing. He’ll be in a very winnable round of 12 match with Horan, then Edgar Bright. I think 5th is possible, but lower is an absolute possibility.

Chris Dardanes-It hasn’t been a seamless transition for Dardanes up at 141, but he’s still been a solid guy. He could break into the top 5, but not much higher.

Edgar Bright-This could be a stretch. His draw is nuts and he’s a True Freshman. I’m going for it though. I think he can hang with a lot of these guys.

Ugi-And another potential stretch. I could have some serious egg on my face after this weight, but the fact is it’s extremely even from 7-20. The results have been inconsistent all year.

Round of 12 thoughts: Mecate is yet to fall to Horan, so I don’t expect that to change. Horan will struggle to score on Mecate. Vaith didn’t look great at EIWA’s and I think someone picks him off there (Edgar). Henderson and Dardanes is intriguing as Henderson all but had him beat at the Scuffle before inexplicably giving up some late scores. Dardanes pace broke him very late.

149

Drake Houdashelt-Missouri
Jake Sueflohn-Nebraska
Jason Tsirtsis-Northwestern
Kendric Maple-Oklahoma
Nick Dardanes-Minnesota
Chris Villalonga-Cornell
Eric Grajales-Michigan
Gus Sako-Virginia

Round of 12: Mitch Minotti-Lehigh loses to Tsirtis, Scott Sakaguch-Oregon State loses to Grajales, Brody Grothus-Iowa loses to Sako, Lenny Richardson loses to Villalonga.

Drake Houdashelt-No, I don’t feel great about it. I don’t feel great about any of these guys. Consistency has been hard to come by at this weight, but Drake has given us the most. Part of me thinks Maple will get it together and win. Part of me thinks Tsirtsis is the best one here. Another part of me thinks Houdashelt is the 1 seed for a reason. He’s got a great motor, solid re-attacks and is tough on the mat.

Jake Sueflohn-I think it was established last week that Tsirtsis was better than both Dardanes and Sueflohn, but some weird seeding keeps Tsirtsis out of the finals and puts Sueflohn in. I love Sueflohn’s motor and attacks. Going through Villalonga and Dardanes will be super tough, but I love his grit.

Jason Tsirtsis-I am not sure how well he matches up with Maple. Part of me thinks he won’t have the necessary speed/strength combo to compete. Yet, I think Jason can knock off a discouraged Maple, disappointed he didn’t end his season on top. I think Tsirtsis is a great matchup and could win it all and I wouldn’t bat an eye.

Kendric Maple-Another guy who, if he got it together, could definitely win it all. He was my pick to start the year, and for the life of me I can’t figure out why he hasn’t dominated this weight. I know he’s up a weight, but he’s still a big 149. Absolutely everything he did at 141 should still be on the table at 149. 149 is not a strong weight either. It’s got some solid guys, but a returning champ of Maples caliber should be able to win. However, this season hasn’t gone that way. He’s still more than good enough to place even if he’s not the guy he was last year.

Nick Dardanes-What is there to say? He’s the same guy he’s always been, just up a weight. Straight forward on his feet, looking of that double more than anything. Not much to get excited about on the mat. Great hand fighter with great pace. Struggles to create angles. He’s got a breeze draw to the semi’s but I think Sueflohn takes him out there. I think Maple or Tsirtsis knock him to the 5th/6th place match.

Chris Villalonga-What a turnaround for Villalonga. Coach Koll said it himself, he was mediocre last year, and now he’s a legit title contender. Hats off to him. I think he falls in the quarters to Sueflohn and then falls to the loser of the Tsirtsis/Houdashelt semi. He was close with Dardanes at National Duals, but Dardanes just had too much offense it seemed.

Eric Grajales-The enigma gets on the podium. I think he has a great draw in the round of 12 likely facing Sakaguchi who he’s beaten 2 out of 3 times. Eric faltering at NCAA’s, however, should surprise nobody.

Gus Sako-The seed/draw sealed it for me. I think he makes the quarters and beats Grothus in the round of 12 and will ultimately finish 8th. He’s great with his underhook and is extremely strong. He could present some problems for Dardanes, but I don’t see him able to pull that upset.

Round of 12 thoughts: Tsirtsis won’t struggle with Minotti. Sakaguchi and Grajales could go either way. Sako and Grothus is another coin flip. Villalonga will have no trouble placing provided he makes the quarters.

157

James Green-Nebraska
Derek St. John-Iowa
Alex Dieringer-Oklahoma State
Ian Miller-Kent State
Isaac Jordan-Wisconsin
Taylor Walsh-Indiana
Dylan Ness-Minnesota
Blaise Butler-UVA

Round of 12: Brian Realbuto-Cornell loses to Isaac Jordan, Nestor Taffur loses to Ness, Brian Murphy-Michigan loses to Butler, RJ Pena-Oregon State loses to Walsh

James Green-He’s been the best all year. 1 hiccup. His draw is rough hitting Ness and the Jordan/Miller loser. His finals match may be easier than his semi. He’s so good on his feet, so diverse in his attacks that I don’t see anyone keeping up with him for 7 minutes.

Derek St. John-He’s got a phenomenal run to the semi’s and I don’t see Dieringer getting that extra point he’ll need. DSJ just finds ways to win against guys who are close with him. Unfortunately he’s not close with Green anymore.
Alex Dieringer-I think he falls to DSJ in the semi before beating Jordan and Ian Miller for 3rd. Losing either of those matches should surprise nobody as he keeps matches far too close.

Ian Miller-Maybe the most dynamic guy in this weight, it’s like Miller youtubed all the sweetest looking moves in wrestling and then mastered them. Ducks, boot scoots, inside trips, his go-to stuff is highlight-reel material. Not sure how sustainable it is against the best of the best, but I think he beats Jordan again, beats Walsh, then falls to Dieringer who he couldn’t get close to scoring on at the Scuffle.

Isaac Jordan-Deep weight, right? Dude was the 1 seed at Big 10’s. Could be the bracket buster here, but I think Miller has too much offense. Definitely has top 3 potential but I see him falling to Dieringer and beating Walsh for 5th.

Taylor Walsh-The winner of the Walsh/Taffur rd 2 match gets 6th. I feel quite confident in that. I think it’s going to be Walsh. He doesn’t have the most amazing wins, but his great mat savvy gets him the win against Taffur and I think he’ll beat Pena in the round of 12, then Butler, then falls to Miller and Jordan.

Dylan Ness- Kind of a crappy draw for Ness who has had an excellent year. Green is a huge obstacle as Green dominated him last week. He should knock off Taffur in the round of 12, but I think Isaac Jordan knocks him off and he has to settle for 7th. Like many of these guys he’s got the potential for top 3, no doubt.

Blaise Butler-Combination of talent + great draw and I think he’s the guy. I think he beats Realbuto to make the quarters, then knocks off Murphy in the round of 12. He’s a really fun guy to watch. Check him out.

Round of 12 thoughts: Realbuto doesn’t match up well against Jordan. If Realbuto wants to place he needs to beat Butler. Taffur will struggle with Ness. Murphy and Butler will be the weakest round of 12 match. Pena and Walsh will have two of the nastiest riders in this weight.

165

David Taylor-Penn State
Tyler Caldwell-Oklahoma State
Nick Sulzer-Virginia
Nick Moore-Iowa
Steven Monk-ND State
Corey Mock-UTC
Cooper Moore-UNI
Joe Booth-Hofstra

Round of 12: Danny Zilverberg-Minnesota loses to Monk, Dylan Palacio-Cornell loses to Booth, Jackson Morse-Illinois loses to Cooper Moore, Mike Moreno-Iowa State loses to Mock.

David Taylor-It’s not a matter of how, it’s a matter of by how much. He won’t have a close match, though Caldwell will try his darndest to keep this a one score match.

Tyler Caldwell-Some felt Sulzer was right there with Caldwell, but I watched that match and Sulzer really didn’t have many opportunities to score. At that point Sulzer had basically killed everyone, so that said a lot about Caldwell’s defense. I think he beats Sulzer again. The mat is the difference as I don’t see either guy getting a takedown. He doesn’t have an answer for Taylor, in my opinion.

Nick Sulzer-He’s been a hammer this year. Great single, double and high crotch. Power-house finishes and savvy mat wrestling. I think 3rd is both his ceiling and his basement. Maybe Moore can beat him, but it’d surprise me.

Nick Moore-He’s been excellent all year. I think he should have had Monk beaten at Midlands and I think he makes the necessary adjustments to beat him and make the semi’s. His shots are crisp and very quick and he’s very difficult to score on. He should have a favorable matchup after his semi loss where he will fall to Sulzer in the match for 3rd.

Steven Monk-One of the toughest guys to takedown in the country and a monster on top. He has a real shot at the semi’s in my opinion but I think Moore is a tough better on his feet. He’ll fall to Sulzer in consolations and beat Mock for 5th.

Corey Mock-Mock is like a slightly inferior version of Monk. Amazing top game, good counters, limited leg attacks. Loves a high crotch more than any other shot, but will struggle to finish (and even penatrate) it against the best guys.

Cooper Moore-He’s kind of my upside pick. Real talent, goer, etc. I think he beats Harger to make the quarters and then will knock off Jackson Morse to place.

Joe Booth-I think he puts it all together, and will potentially have to beat a familiar nemesis in Palacio to place. He and Moore’s match is a coin flip in my eyes.

Round of 12 thoughts: Zilverberg will struggle to beat Monk, bad match up. Palacio and Booth is close to a coin flip. Jackson Morse and Cooper Moore is the weakest matchup. Moreno and Mock could go either way as well. Both are mat wrestlers.

174

Andrew Howe-Oklahoma
Chris Perry-Oklahoma State
Robert Kokesh-Nebraska
Matt Brown-Penn State
Mike Evans-Iowa
Logan Storley-Minnesota
Tyler Wilps-Pittsburgh
Cody Walters-Ohio

Round of 12: Mike Ottinger-CMU loses to Evans, Bryce Hammond-CSU Bakersfield loses to Walters, Tanner Weatherman-ISU loses to Wilps, Mat Miller-Navy loses to Storley.

Andrew Howe-Would love to get my eyes on this controversial Big 12 final match, but I’m not changing my tune with Howe. I think he’s the best guy, I don’t see how guys will score on him, and I don’t see how guys will keep him at bay. It’s going to be a grind to beat Kokesh and Perry back to back, but I just don’t see him falling.

Chris Perry-He’s one of the hardest guys to ever pick against because he’s got such tremendous will and an uncanny ability of winning matches in different ways. He’s had some tight ones with Brown and Evans, but he’ll only have to beat one of those guys to make the finals. I think he falls a point short of beating Howe.

Robert Kokesh-What a turnaround (from an already really good wrestler). Even though he may finish the same as he did last year, he’s vastly improved, which really speaks to the strength of both Howe and Perry. Varied attacks, great pace and he’s much better defensively.

Matt Brown-The Brown I saw earlier in the year I wouldn’t expect to have any trouble with Kokesh. However, I don’t know where that guy went. 5th or 6th is possible with him, but I think he gets his groove back and places 4th.

Mike Evans-His matches with Brown and Storley are coin flips. One he wins, one he loses. Iowa needs him to be big. It won’t be pretty, but he can place as high as 4th if he’s on. I like him for 5th.

Logan Storley-He’s been losing the close matches he was formerly known for winning. Not sure what that’s about, but I think it’s worth noting. He falls to 6th but no chance any further.

Tyler Wilps-He’s been under the radar this year, and I think he’s the clear “best of the rest.” That being said higher than 7th is not realistic in my mind.

Cody Walters-It wasn’t looking like he was going to follow up his All American campaign a year ago but he just won the loaded Mac. I think he beats Hammond in the round of 12 and winds up 8th.

Round of 12 Thoughts: Evans has no trouble with Ottinger, Hammond and Walters will be tight as will Weatherman and Wilps. Storley has no problem with Miller.

184

Ed Ruth-Penn State
Ethen Lofthouse-Iowa
Jimmy Sheptock-Maryland
Gabe Dean-Cornell
Domenic Abounader-Michigan
Kevin Steinhaus-Minnesota
Max Thomusseit-Pittsburgh
Jacob Swartz-Boise State

Round of 12: Ryan Loder-UNI loses to Max Thomusseit, Lorenzo Thomas-Penn loses to Abounader, Ophir Bernstein-Brown loses to Steinhaus, TJ Dudley-Nebraska loses to Jacob Swartz

Ed Ruth-He’s going to pick Dean apart I believe. Dean will struggle to finish, ride and slow down Ruth. Look for a controlled 3-5 point win for Ruth here in the semi’s and we know what he does to Ethen.

Ethen Lofthouse-Watch his Midlands finals match and tell me he can’t beat Sheptock? I’m expecting it. He’s beaten him before and looked great at Big 10’s. I like him in the finals where he gets punished by Ruth again.

Jimmy Sheptock-I like Jimmy, but think he’s going to fall a bit. His 3rd place match with Dean will be close, but he won the last one. I think Jimmy just matches up well against Dean.

Gabe Dean-I love this kid. His twitter bio reads “My greatest pleasure in life is doing what people say I can't do” How cool is that? I’m saying he can’t beat Ruth, and I think Sheptock is a toss up. Prove me wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time! Watching him at EIWA’s I think finishing will continue to be an issue.

Domenic Abounader-He’s my break through pick. I have him knocking off Dudley, losing to Sheptock then beating Thomas, then Thomusseit and Steinhaus. May be a bit pie in the sky but he’s red hot coming into NCAA’s. Sometimes true Freshman just don’t know better!

Kevin Steinhaus-Coming into this year, I expected Steinhaus to be the number 1 contender to Ruth. Simply put it hasn’t worked out that way. He’s still fun to watch, but really hasn’t improved the way I thought he might. Great ducks and attacks, and tough tilts on top, but he hasn’t had the success I expected against the best guys.

Max Thomusseit-Could really be selling him a bit short here. I fully acknowledge that. However, I think Abounader gets him and he beats Jacob Swartz for 7th. He could easily be 5th and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.

Jacob Swartz-I’m pretty ho-hum on this pick, but his draw is really really nice. Swartz is solid positionally and I think knocks off Dudley in the round of 12 to place.

Round of 12 Thoughts: Loder of old knocks off Thomusseit, but he’s not Loder of old I’m afraid. Abounader should take care of business against Thomas, but he’s a funky dude. Funk gave Abounader problems his first go-round with Dudley, so keep an eye on that one. Ophir will struggle with Steinhaus. Dudley could beat Swartz but gives up too many points.

197

J’den Cox-Missouri
Kyven Gadson-Iowa State
Morgan McIntosh-Penn State
Nick Heflin-Ohio State
Scott Schiller-Minnesota
Richard Perry-Bloomsburg
Travis Rutt-Oklahoma
Nathan Burak-Iowa

Round of 12: Dan Scherer-Stanford loses to Schiller, Phil Wellington-Ohio loses to Burak, Daniel Mitchell-American loses to Rutt, Alex Polizzi-Northwestern loses to Perry.

J’den Cox-I really don’t know. I just don’t. 4, maybe 5 different guys can win this weight. I’m not hedging it’s just true! Cox seems the least matchup-dependent guy of them all. He dominated McIntosh both times and had his way with Rutt as well. At this point my pick is mostly me being risk-averse. I think Cox has a great shot at the finals, and I think I like him as much as anyone against whoever comes out of that side. True freshman champ? He’s not an ordinary true freshman. For some reason I’m still a little nervous about Cox against McIntosh in the semi’s though he dominated those matches.

Kyven Gadson-He could win, no doubt. He’s been the best guy all year really. I just think A) he’s got a tough draw to get to the finals, and B) he’s a 50/50 shot against Cox. He could win, but he has struggled with Schiller and Heflin’s looked great.

Morgan McIntosh-Again all these guys are close. He could be 6th for all I know. He was my preseason pick to win it all, but I’m backing off that (until he wins, and then I’ll be all like “I told ya’ll!!”) for now. Still struggling to get attacks off against the best guys. His defense and scrambling make him a scary match up for all.

Nick Heflin-I mean c’mon, this is brutal. These guys all could do it. I’ll end up looking real dumb undoubtedly on one (or more of these). Heflin’s lack of offense (though it’s improved) makes me think he falls in the semi’s. He won’t have the strength advantage against Gadson that he’s had against Schiller and McIntosh. How nuts is it that someone that strong was DOWN 2 weights one year ago.

Scott Schiller-A few months ago we were talking about how he was the head and shoulders favorite. He’s fallen on hard times and I’m not sure why. Even though he’s not quite on the level he was before, he’s still very skilled. His re-attacks are the best in the business. If he gets hot like he was earlier this year, watch out.

Richard Perry-Perry could be a surprise semi finalist if he knocks off McIntosh. However, I see him walking into a few shots and unable to score on McIntosh. I think he beats Polizzi in the round of 12 and then Rutt before falling to Schiller for 6th.

Travis Rutt-Not much to say, he’s solid, hard to score on, just doesn’t quite have the offense to enter the upper echelon. I think he falls to Cox but will beat Burak for 7th.

Nathan Burak-Nice draw for Burak proves beneficial. He hasn’t improved like I thought he might but he’s still great at getting to legs, and I think that’s a great quality to have at NCAA’s.

Round of 12 Thoughts: Scherer poses no threat to Schiller. Burak v. Wellington could have huge team race ramifications. Rutt and Mitchell should be fairly predictable and Perry will have no issue with Polizzi.

285

Tony Nelson-Minnesota
Adam Chalfant-Indiana
Bobby Telford-Iowa
Adam Coon-Michigan
Nick Gwiazdowski-NC State
Mike McMullan-Northwestern
JT Felix-Boise State
Mike McClure-Michigan State

Round of 12: Jeremy Johnson-Ohio loses to Coon, Jon Gingrich-PSU loses to Felix, Spencer Myers-Maryland loses to McClure, Connor Medbery-Wisconsin loses to McMullan

Tony Nelson-He’s close to a safe bet after his Big 10 showing. He’s willing to win by narrow margins, and while that’s cost him, it’s hard to bet against someone with his championship mettle.

Adam Chalfant-I think I had him placing like 6th or 7th at Big 10’s last week. #NailedIt He’s good, I knew he was good, just was wrong about a match or 2. He’s right there to win a title. He could do it no doubt about it. He’s probably the best athlete of all the heavies. Great attacks and he’s really honed his technical skills to matchup with his athleticism. He could do it.

Bobby Telford-Another guy who could legitimately win the title. He’s got a brutal draw but Coon is struggling, and he’s beaten Nelson. I don’t like him to beat Nelson, but it’s obviously possible. He had a great Big 10’s placing 3rd. He’s got a nice sweep and high single, but we see them so rarely. If he brings them out he could be the surprise champ of this tournament.

Adam Coon-I have Coon at 4th, but anywhere from him winning the title to not placing seems possible after his Big 10’s. He’s huge, strong, a great athlete and difficult to score on. He’s struggling to get his attacks off and guys aren’t taking bad shots against him like they were earlier. His ability to adapt his gameplan will determine how well he does.

Nick Gwiazdowski-Maybe Gwiaz makes the finals, but I don’t see it. He hasn’t notched the big wins apart from beating McMullan. He’s a great scrambler and top wrestler. I just don’t think he’ll get the takedowns necessary to win the big matches.

Mike McMullan-Don’t feel terribly comfortable putting a guy with McMullan’s NCAA track record this low, but he just hasn’t looked great this year. He’s got the great win over Nelson and Telford, but he struggled at Big 10’s to get his offense off. He’s a title contender when he’s on.

JT Felix-Really like Felix’s style. Big athlete, but he wrestles hard and gets lots of attacks off. I think he may be good enough to notch an upset and get within the upper echelon. Still, he hasn’t been in the fray as much and has had a weird loss that gives me pause.

Mike McClure-Maybe the biggest guns in NCAA’s! This dude is built like a mack truck! He’s got some skills too though, so don’t get enamored with just his physique. He could potentially pull a big upset and beat Gwiaz, but I’m not prepared to predict that.

Round of 12 Thoughts: Johnson wrestles how you want a heavy to, he may not be big enough to beat Coon, however. Gingrich doesn’t match up well against Felis. Myers hasn’t notched a big win this year and I don’t see him beating McClure. Medbery is tough, but McMullan is on another level I believe.

Team: So I entered the team scores into the rubric, and it’s tough. Here’s what they are without bonus points involved:

Iowa-105.5
Penn State-95
Minnesota-81

So the question is does PSU scores 10.5 MORE bonus points than Iowa? I’m not sure that they do. Ruth will be pushed from Quarters on and most of their best guys will be challenged along the way. So I may be on an island here, but I’m going with Iowa to get it done.

It’s going to be darn close, and maybe I’m sleeping on Minnesota (their draws are not good either). I think it comes down to the finals. Here’s my top 10: