Fi: CP's Ultimate MAC Preview

Mar 4, 2014 by Christian Pyles

MAC Preview

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MAC Preview
Christian Pyles

The MAC conference has been slowly building from a solid conference into the conversation of one of the most elite outside of the Big 10. Between the resurgence of UNI and the addition of Missouri and ODU we have 10 weights full of All American and National Champion caliber wrestlers. Nobody touches the Big 10, but if you want a vote for number 2, mine may go right to the MAC.

Next Saturday and Sunday (March 8 and 9) the 9 teams of the MAC will collide and look to punch tickets to OKC!

You’ll see how many qualifiers each weight has earned as well as my final predictions of the qualifiers. In addition to final placements, I’ll give you my tiers which are a spacial representation of how I view the weights. Space between guys represents a gap in ability. Losing to someone within your tier doesn't surprise me. If you lose to someone outside your tier, I'd be pretty surprised.

125
Automatic Qualifiers: 4

Pre Seeds
1- Dylan Peters, Northern Iowa
2- Jared Germaine, Eastern Michigan
3- Brandon Jeske, Old Dominion
4- Corey Keener, Central Michigan
5- Barlow McGhee, Missouri
6- KeVon Powell, Ohio
7- Max Soria, Buffalo
Alfredo Gray, Kent State
Nick Harrison, Northern Illinois

Peters has been an absolute hammer for the Panther Train this year. At 27-4 and undefeated within MAC competition, Peters has to be considered a tremendous favorite here. With a whopping 17 falls this year Peters is a terror to have on your side when you consider his wins and bonus points. I don’t see anyone standing in Peters way.

At 17-1 Germaine is a possible candidate for the tournaments 2 seed. He sits at 17-1 on the season so far, but with a limited schedule and only a handful of matches against elite competition, it is possible that Germaine may struggle to endure the grind of the 2 day tournament.

The True Freshman from ODU has truly had a very solid season. Being a VA native, I was unsure about Brandon’s transition from high school to D1 competition, but he’s made a nice transition thus far. His season has not been without letdowns and inconsistencies, having fallen to a number of unranked opponents. With wins over Klimara, Richardson, Keener and McGhee, the ODU faithful can be nothing but excited with Jeske moving forward.

Things were off to a tremendous start for the CMU Freshman this year. He was notching nice wins and wrestling solid. The Southern Scuffle marked the beginning of hard times for Corey where he fell to both Vito Pasone and Caleb Richardson. Since being 16-4, he’s went on quite a slide and currently is sitting with a 17-10 record having lost to Dance, Hall, Delgado, Germaine and Jeske. A top 3 finish here would represent a pretty strong trend shift and provide some much needed confidence moving forward. I’m not sure we’ll see it, however.

Looks like we’ll see McGhee here for the Tigers. He may have the talent to pull an upset

CP’s 125 Predictions and Tiers:
1. Dylan Peters-UNI

2. Brandon Jeske-ODU
3. Jared Germaine-EMU
4. Corey Keener-CMU

133
Automatic Qualifiers: 5

Pre Seeds
1- Joe Colon, Northern Iowa
2- Joe Roth, Central Michigan
3- Vinnie Pizzuto, Eastern Michigan
4- Mack McGuire, Kent State
5- Matt Manley, Missouri
6- Nick Smith, Northern Illinois
7- Kagan Squire, Ohio
Michael Hayes, Old Dominion
Justin Farmer, Buffalo

Colon is number 1 in the country, and the clear favorite in a fairly tough weight. Colon has run quite the gauntlet this year and is relatively unscathed apart from a loss to Johnni DiJulius. Find a comparable collection of wins: AJ Schopp, Tyler Graff (twice), Tony Ramos and Cody Brewer. Absurd. He’s an absolute bonus point machine. The Panthers have quite a 1-2 punch going with Peters and Colon to get it started. I don’t see anyone standing in his way.

It had been an excellent season thus far for Joe Roth, but he took a little stumble at the end of the year with a loss to Garth Yenter of Michigan State. Apart from that he had been among the more consistent guys we’ve seen at 133. Joe beats who he should beat, and will typically fall to the upper echelon guys. He’s a brawler extraordinaire and very fundamentally sound. I am chalking the Yenter loss up as an outlier and expect him to make the finals here with little issue.

Vinnie has had an under the radar but extremely solid season. With a sole loss to Roth against MAC competition, it is extremely likely we see him landing the 3 seed here. He probably doesn’t have the upside to contend with Roth and Colon, but 3rd should be the expectation for the EMU Sophomore.

Macks MAC tournament likely begin from the 3 seed. McGuire has notched a few solid wins this season and lost only by 2 to Joe Roth. Regardless, it’ll take an uncharacteristic performance for Mack to make the finals here. Even making the semi’s will be tough.

CP’s 133 Predictions and Tiers
1. Joe Colon-UNI

2. Joe Roth-CMU

3. Vinnie Pizzuto-EMU
4. Matt Manley-Missouri
5. Mack McGuire-Kent State

141
Automatic Qualifiers: 5

Pre Seeds
1- Chris Mecate, Old Dominion
2- Zach Horan, Central Michigan
3- Joey Lazor, Northern Iowa
4- Lavion Mayes, Missouri
5- Tyler Small, Kent State
6- Noah Forrider, Ohio
7- Nick Flannery, Buffalo
Tyler Argue, Northern Illinois
Michael Shaw, Eastern Michigan

It’s plain to see why Mecate is a substantial favorite here. He’s been the cornerstone for ODU this year and has notched some enormous wins. His tough rides, great scrambling and timely offense will make him a bear to unseat at MAC’s this year.

Horan wrestles some close matches, but he usually finds ways to win them. Not sure he is a great matchup against Mecate, but anyone else should be a W for the CMU Sophomore.

Mayes has had an up and down year when you look at the big picture. However, when you look over his conference resume, Lavion is in good shape. He’s been right there with the MAC elite losing 2-1 to Mecate, and twice in SV to Zach Horan. He’s a potential bracket buster for the Tigers and someone Missouri will look to for a boost in the tight team race. If he works on some set ups for his single, he could be tough to beat here.

It hasn’t been the year many thought Lazor would be having, but he’s still been a solid contributor when he’s in the lineup. Lazor is extremely dangerous and his go-for-broke style will have opposing coaches sweating in the corner until time is up.

Tyler Small is another guy who will have coaches nervous until the final buzzer. Small is a monster on top and while he can struggle on his feet, his scrambling can keep him in matches.

CP’s 141 Predictions and Tiers
1. Chris Mecate-ODU

2. Lavion Mayes-Missouri
3. Zach Horan-CMU

4. Tyler Small-Kent State
5. Joey Lazor-UNI

149
Automatic Qualifiers: 4

1- Tywan Claxton, Ohio
2- Drake Houdashelt, Missouri
3- Michael DePalma, Kent State
4- Alexander Richardson, Old Dominion
5- Robert Jillard, Northern Illinois
6- Tyler Patten, Northern Iowa
7- Scott Mattingly, Central Michigan
Nick Barber, Eastern Michigan
Ryan Todora, Buffalo

I know Drake had the slip up against Claxton, but over time that has been proven to be a complete outlier in my opinion. I don’t see anyone keeping it close with Houdashelt the way he’s been wrestling lately. Including Claxton.

Tywan may wind up with the 1 seed (though possibly not), but I think his ceiling is 2. He hasn’t finished the year the way you’d like to see with losses to Richardson and Morales. He’s a talent, but a notch behind Houdashelt.

Lenny has notched a few nice wins this year and has an absolute shot at the finals if he is seeded opposite Houdashelt. Defensively stout and offensively opportunistic, it’s entirely likely we see Richardson turn some heads in this tournament.

The season looked full of promise when DePalma knocked off Eric Grajales, but the Golden Flash has had some serious head scratching defeats this year. Your guess is as good as mine with DePalma, but I’m erring on the side of disappointment given how his season has ended.

CP’s 149 Predictions and Tiers:
1. Drake Houdashelt-Missouri

2. Lenny Richardson-ODU
3. Tywan Claxton-Ohio

4. Michael DePalma-Kent State

157
Automatic Qualifiers: 5

Pre Seeds
1- Ian Miller, Kent State
2- Luke Smith, Central Michigan
3- Joey Lavallee, Missouri
4- Tristan Warner, Old Dominion
5- Spartak Chino, Ohio
6- Brandon Zeerip, Eastern Michigan
7- Jarrett Jensen, Northern Iowa
Andrew Morse, Northern Illinois
Wally Maziarz, Buffalo

KSU’s high flying, low ducking Sophomore is poised for a MAC title. Many are putting Ian as a possible title contender coming into this year. While I’m not sure about that, I am sure I don’t want to miss one of his matches. He’s as dynamic as they come.

A few good wins and a few odd losses summarize Smith’s season thus far. Anywhere from 2nd-5th is a realistic stopping point for the Chippewa.

It was a disappointing end of the career for Missouri 57 pounder Kyle Bradley, but his true Freshman replacement, Joey LaVallee has done an admirable job. He gave Ian Miller a tight match and has wins over Warner and pack to his credit. Lots of upside here for LaVallee but I think he has a matchup issue with Smith that will prevent the rematch with Miller.

CP’s 157 Predictions and Tiers
1. Ian Miller-Kent State

2. Luke Smith-CMU
3. Joey LaVallee-Missouri
4. Tristan Warner-ODU

5. Spartak Chino-Ohio

165
Automatic Qualifiers: 3
1- Cooper Moore, Northern Iowa
2- Zach Toal, Missouri
3- Harrison Hightower, Ohio
4- Nick Becker, Central Michigan
5- Tyler Buckwalter, Kent State
6- Devin Geoghegan, Old Dominion
7- Shaun’Qae McMurtry, Northern Illinois
Jimmy Klosz, Eastern Michigan
Jake Campana, Buffalo

A fairly well defined pecking order here. I love watching Cooper Moore. He’s another Panther Freshman who isn’t afraid to let it fly. Though he’s but a Freshman, he’s yet to have a moment where he disappoints or has a let down. All 6 of his losses were to quality, ranked opponents. He dominated Toal and Hightower. The one match that does stand out, is a 5-4 win over Kent State’s Buckwalter. I haven’t been able to see that match, but thats a tight one. Moore is a bonus scorer as well with 12 of his 23 wins coming by bonus points. A guy like that is huge for a team making a push at a MAC title!

Toal is a fine wrestler through and through. He’s pretty much the same guy he’s been since he broke into the lineup for the Tigers. He beats who he should beat, and loses to the top 10 type of guys. He’s always been tough on the mat as well as being quite hard to score on from neutral. 2nd seems quite likely.

Harrison Hightower will be looking for that last qualifying spot and I think he gets it. He’s beaten everyone seeded behind him. The Bobcat is tough on top with his arm bars, but won’t be able to knock off a guy like Toal who has outscored him 13-1 in 2 meetings.

CP’s Predictions and Tiers
1. Cooper Moore-UNI

2. Zach Toal-Missouri

3. Harrison Hightower-Ohio

174
Automatic Qualifiers: 5

Pre Seeds
1- Billy Curling, Old Dominion
2- Mike Ottinger, Central Michigan
3- Cody Walters, Ohio
4- Cody Caldwell, Northern Iowa
5- Caleb Marsh, Kent State
6- Jacob Davis, Eastern Michigan
7- Mikey England, Missouri
Matt Mougin, Northern Illinois
Rrok Ndokaj, Buffalo

Crazy tough weight here! It’s really 8 deep with legitimate quality guys.

Billy Curling has been on a complete tear the last beating Walters, Ottinger, England and Caldwell. He had some bad losses earlier in the year, but he’s clearly a changed wrestler.

Mike Ottinger has been as solid as ever this year only losing to ranked athletes (or the Ice Man Joey Davis). He’s not going to put huge points up, but he won’t give them up either. Trying to figure out if his loss to Curling was an outlier, or an indication of what’s to come down the road.

Returning All American Cody Walters is a picture of how tough this conference has become. Coming into this year, many had pegged Walters as a shoo-in conference champion, likely to repeat as an All American. He’s missed a good bit of time and has fallen to both Ottinger and Curling this year. He’s a hammer though, and has shown he can put it together when it matters most.

Caleb Marsh and Cody Caldwell will be in the mix as well, but I think are a notch below the first three. Marsh has the best win of the bunch with a 5-2 win over Curling. However, Caldwell knocked Marsh off 6-1! Lots of inconsistent results in this weight, that’s for sure!

CP’s 174 Predictions and Tiers
1. Mike Ottinger-CMU
2. Billy Curling-ODU
3. Cody Walters-Ohio

4. Cody Caldwell-UNI
5. Caleb Marsh-Kent State

184
Automatic Qualifiers: 5

Pre Seeds
1- Ryan Loder, Northern Iowa
2- John Eblen, Missouri
3- Jack Dechow, Old Dominion
4- Phillip Joseph, Eastern Michigan
5- Tony Lock, Buffalo
6- Craig Kelliher, Central Michigan
7- Caleb Busson, Northern Illinois
Ryan Garringer, Ohio
Cory Campbell, Kent State

Very interesting weight here. Up until his final match, Loder was the clear favorite. Then he fell 5-4 to Jack Dechow, who has had nothing if not an up and down year. Loder had missed much of the year with injury. His limited schedule and late loss will have the Panther Train nervous throughout. No question he’s the most talented guy, but is he the healthiest?

Eblen has not had the swings in his season that Loder and Dechow have. He’s been steady as they come all year, including a win over Dechow. Many forget he had a win over Rutt a year ago, so the skills are definitely there.

Simply put, I don’t see Dechow getting past Eblen for another crack to prove his win over Loder wasn’t a fluke. He’s got the wins, but I just think Eblen has his number.

CP’s 184 Predictions and Tiers
1. Ryan Loder-UNI
2. John Eblen-Missouri
3. Jack Dechow-ODU

197
Automatic Qualifiers: 2

Pre Seeds
1- Phil Wellington, Ohio
2- J’den Cox, Missouri
3- Shawn Scott, Northern Illinois
4- Cole Baxter, Kent State
5- Nick Whitenburg, Eastern Michigan
6- Kevin Beazley, Old Dominion
7- Jackson Lewis, Central Michigan
Angelo Malvestuto, Buffalo
Jared Bartel, Northern Iowa

It’s a two horse race here, though this weight has some real quality. Quite a few guys who have been ranked at different times that have fallen out of the top 2 seeds. However, many have faded.

Wellington has been excellent for the Bobcats and is one of 2 guys who has beaten J’den Cox this year. Wellington loves to shoot from space and can at times lack quality set ups with his attacks. Though he’s been successful against Cox before, I think he will have a harder time scoring this time around.

Cox has steadily worked his way up the rankings based mainly on his Scuffle where he took out Morgan McIntosh twice. He’s huge for the weight, moves extremely well, is incredibly strong and is next to impossible to takedown. I think his loss to Wellington was an indication of a bad night for Missouri. Recall that Houdashelt fell to Claxton on this same evening. I like Cox to win by 2 or so here. He isn’t really a blow you out type of wrestler (yet). But I think he controls every aspect of this match.

CP’s 197 Predictions and Tiers
1. J’den Cox-Missouri

2. Phil Wellington-Ohio

285
Automatic Qualifiers: 3

Pre Seeds
1- Jeremy Johnson, Ohio
2- Devin Mellon, Missouri
3- Jared Torrence, Northern Illinois
4- Blaize Cabell, Northern Iowa
5- Khodor Hoballah, Eastern Michigan
6- Matt Tourdot, Old Dominion
7- Mimmo Lytle, Kent State
Adam Robinson, Central Michigan
James Benjamin, Buffalo

The big Bobcat Jeremy Johnson is the class of this weight. He’s dominated Mellon, Torrence and Cabell consistently. He’s got the best motor of any big man in this weight. He doesn’t quite have the size to beat the elite guys, but the MAC poses no threat. He’ll dominate his way to a title.

Mellon has been excellent within the MAC against anyone not named Jeremy Johnson. He’s the clear 2 year, and I don’t expect anything other than 2nd for Mellon.

Torrence has been solid otherwise and did beat Cabell, but I like Cabell’s upside. Don’t be surprised if Blaize pulls the upset for UNI and punches the ticket to OKC.

CP’s 285 Predictions and Tiers

1. Jeremy Johnson-Ohio

2. Devon Mellon-Missouri

3. Blaize Cabell

Team Predictions and Tiers

1. Missouri
2. Northern Iowa

3. Old Dominion
4. Ohio

5. Central Michigan

6. Kent State

7. Eastern Michigan
8. Northern Illinois

9. Buffalo