CP's Superdual Breakdown: PSU v. Minnesota

Feb 8, 2014 by Christian Pyles

PSU v. Minnesota Super Dual Breakdown
Christian Pyles

It’s been 2 years since these Big 10 giants knocked heads in a dual. Last time around Minnesota took it to the Nittany Lions. Historically Minnesota has done well against PSU in dual meets. However, they’ll be underdogs in this spot in one of the most anticipated duals of the season. Check out some analysis, predictions and some match footage sprinkled in.

125-#2 Nico Megaludis-PSU v. #19 Sam Brancale-Minnesota
Who is Sam Brancale? That’s the question in this one. Is he just going to rag doll elite 25 pounders to their back on a regular basis? Is he still the same guy who fell to Youtsey by 6? The answer, almost unquestionably lies somewhere in between. I do think he is a solid guy. While he can tend to give up big points, the only guy to bonus Brancale this year is Tyler Cox. That was awhile ago for Sam (11/24 to be exact). Coach Robinson alluded to better weight management as an explanation for an improved Brancale.

So I go this far without mentioning Nico. Why? Well, we know exactly who Nico is at this point. We’ve seen him for over 2 years be rock solid in all positions. Relentless hustle and skill in all phases. I don’t expect the result for this match to be in doubt at any point in time. The question is by how much. I think the victory falls in the 5-9 point range for Nico. I’m giving Brancale the benefit of the doubt. If Sam can keep things primarily neutral, he can keep it closer. If Nico spends a lot of time on top and gets his wrists, it could get ugly.

Nico wins big, but not major decision big.

Nico Megaludis WBD Sam Brancale
3-0 PSU

133-#14 Jimmy Gulibon-PSU v. #8 David Thorn-Minnesota
No matter who you root for, you have to be excited for this rematch. I thought Jimmy would do well in the tournament setting and beat Thorn and he did. I think the quick turnaround and environment in Minnesota is not conducive to a comfortable situation for Jimmy. I left the Scuffle almost sure Thorn will win the rematch. The rematch is coming up and I expect Thorn’s pace to be extremely high right away. Jimmy was on the ropes late, but Thorn waited to long to really put the pressure on.

Jimmy also did a great job on top, never really getting close to a turn, but he did a great job scooping the ankle and breaking Thorn down repeatedly. I think he’ll be ready to get away.

So even though Jimmy was the winner last time around, I feel quite confident it’s going to be Thorn here. In summation, I think a few adjustments, improved pace and the dual environment will be the difference here this time around.

David Thorn WBD Jimmy Gulibon
3-3

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141-#3 Zain Retherford-PSU v. #4 Chris Dardanes-Minnesota
Thought we’d see this one at the Scuffle, but Joe Spisak had other plans. Some serious health questions surround Dardanes right now. I don’t view this as a great match up for Dardanes. I love his single leg, but I’ve seen Zain time and time again stymie guys who can’t finish quick on him. Additionally, we have seen Dardanes struggle on the bottom (or outright avoid it). Not a good weakness to have against Zain who is great on top (at riding, moreso than turning of course).

I don’t expect a blowout here, but I’d be surprised to see Dardanes find a way to win here. Zain likes things close and it’ll be a 1-2 point win. Just think his defense, top game and health are the difference.

Zain Retherford WBD Chris Dardanes
6-3 PSU

149-#17 Zach Beitz/Andrew Alton-PSU v. #2 Nick Dardanes-Minnesota
Who do you send here? Conventional wisdom says we will see Beitz. You don’t want to throw Alton out against a grinder like Dardanes without some assurances he can go 7 minutes. As good as he looked those first 2 periods, Alton is just too much of a liability for PSU in a dual of this magnitude. Beitz has been a tremendous surprise for me this year. Coming into this year I watched all the available film on the potential PSU starters. I thought Beitz would be the guy at 141 for PSU. I wasn’t terribly impressed with his film nor his results.

This is both a credit to he and the PSU room as he’s a much improved guy. His ankle picks are excellent. I knew that’s what he did, but he’s improved it at such a level. He’s notched some big wins and pushed Tsirtsis to the brink. Now, I don’t see him having the offense to get through Dardanes’ head hands defense. I think Dardanes breaks through and gets a few takedowns and ends up a winner by decision. The one path to an upset I see for Beitz is if he gets a ride going. Both Dardanes have a history of bottom struggles and Beitz, like most Nittany Lions is tough on top.

I don’t see Nick coming up short here. And I feel confident we will see Beitz.

Nick Dardanes WBD Zach Beitz

6-6

157-#12 Dylan Alton-PSU v. #9 Dylan Ness-Minnesota

I have to be honest, I’ve typically been quite high on Dylan Alton. From last year to this year, I’ve been pretty high on him being a top 4-5 guy. Though he’s undefeated, I’m yet to watch a match of Dylan’s and say “He’s back.” The offense hasn’t been there, and he’s struggled to widen the gap against inferior opponents. He eked out a pretty sketchy victory over Brian Murphy last week in a match I feel Murphy could just as easily have won.

I think we’ll see Ness get to the legs and finish on Alton. I had been a bit dismissive of some aspects of Ness’s game. Sometimes I think it’s gimmicky, but you can’t deny the results. I think he gives Alton some problems on top(though Alton is typically quite solid from underneath) as well as get to the legs and finish. I like that Alton attacks head inside primarily as Ness has struggled countering those shots as opposed to head outside.

I just think Alton isn’t quite clicking, and he’ll need to be on point to beat Ness. I’ll take Ness, by a takedown or 2. Could be way off here, but that’s my gut.

Dylan Ness WBD Dylan Alton

9-6 Minnesota

165-#1 David Taylor-PSU v. Danny Zilverberg-Minnesota
First and only unranked guy for Minnesota but don’t let the lack of a ranking fool you, Zilverburg is tough, and more importantly very tough to take down. Now, we are talking about David Taylor, but we have seen a few guys slow him down by being stingy defensively. I think Zilverberg is tailor made to keep Taylor to a major or less.

There’s always the possibility DT gets the pin or tech as he is among the most prolific bonus scorers in NCAA history. Brill, Palacio and Moore are among the guys who have been able to keep DT to a major. I think Zilverberg is in that league and is fine on the mat as well as more defensively gifted than most of those guys.

So the question for Taylor once again isn’t IF he will win, it’s by how much will he win. I think it’s a major personally, but obviously a tech or a pin are very very possible.

David Taylor WMD Danny Zilverberg

10-9 Minnesota

174-#3 Matt Brown-PSU v. #6 Logan Storley-Minnesota
At one point last year you could say these two were either on the same level, if Storley wasn’t better. However, we’ve seen Brown not only catch, put pass Storley. The wins have been narrow for Brown over Storley, but in watching the matches, we’ve seen Storley struggle to get any offense off against Brown. Brown has improved his offense and is somehow more physical than he was a year before. He will look for his attack, finish efficiently and look to build his lead.

Now that hasn’t been his plan against Storley previously. He’ll get the TD, get out on bottom and handfight and keep Storley at bay. I don’t expect anything much different in this match either. Storley is defensively skilled enough to avoid giving up a few takedowns to Brown. I see another 3-2 for Brown here in a match Minnesota really needs to win this dual.

Matt Brown WBD Logan Storley

13-9 PSU

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184-#1 Ed Ruth-PSU v. #7 Kevin Steinhaus-Minnesota
So we’ll get a Big 10 finals rematch here. Steinhaus impressed many when he kept Ed to a 5-3 win. He kept Ed off his legs by and large and was able to get to Ed’s a few times and at least make him sweat. Both had Southern Scuffle’s they’d probably like to forget. Ed has looked like Ed since he fell to Gabe Dean. By the same token, Steinhaus hasn’t lost either since the Scuffle.

However, I am still a bit unsure how healthy Steinhaus is. When he’s on, I think he’s the 2nd best guy in the weight. However, he hasn’t shown to be that guy at any point this year. He even wore out against Iowa’s Sam Brooks. Brooks wrestled a great match, but seeing Steinhaus wear out was a strange sight. I like Ed to win by decision here, but I don’t expect it to be as close as their previous match. He’ll score both off of his own attacks, his riding and potentially off of Steinhaus attacks.

I don’t see this one being in doubt at any point.

Ed Ruth WBD Kevin Steinhaus

16-9 PSU

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197-#6 Morgan McIntosh-PSU v. #1 Scott Schiller-Minnesota
Two extremely agile and athletic 97 pounders. One more strategic and calculated by nature(McIntosh). The other aggressive and living on opponents legs.

When Schiller has struggled, it has been against bigger, thick hipped guys who can get him extended when he attacks the legs. This doesn’t fit the description of Morgan McIntosh. Advantage Schiller, right? I’m not so sure. McIntosh who is a bit slight by 197 standards relies on positioning and hand fighting to keep guys off his legs. I really think we’ll see fewer scoring opportunities for Schiller than we’re used to. In defeat McIntosh has done a fair job of keeping guys off of his legs. He’s struggled with bottom to an extent as well as getting to his own offense. When he has attacked we’ve seen a variety of low ankle shots. He’s a good finisher when he gets to the legs. However, at this point I have been disappointed with his general lack of attempts from his feet.

In this bout, I would be surprised to see the mat become too much of a factor here. I like a 1 takedown match, which will be a bit unsettling for Schiller who has been getting to legs and finishing early and often in most of his matches. I’m giving it to Schiller, but it’s going to be very close.

Scott Schiller WBD Morgan McIntosh

16-12 PSU

285-Jon Gingrich-PSU v. #5 Tony Nelson-Minnesota
Yes, yes we all know about the struggles Nelson has been going through. Additionally, we also know that Gingrich is a very capable backup. Despite all of that, Gingrich simply doesn’t match up well here. He hasn’t shown himself to be the guy he was last year when he beat some All Americans. This year he’s yet to notch a marquee win and fell to William Smith of Rutgers. Even at the pinnacle of Gingrich’s success he was never more than a gatekeeper top 10 type of wrestler.

Don’t ask me to explain what’s going on with Nelson, because I simply am not sure. The guy didn’t forget how to wrestle suddenly and has has beaten Gwiaz as well as McMullan this year. I think he’s had some letdowns defensively where he typically would capitalize and score. Be this good game planning or scouting, I am not sure. However, I expect to see the Tony of old again soon. Perhaps he never left us?

Gingrich has a nice double leg, but Adam Chalfant he is not. Nelson won’t be threatened here and wins by 2-4 for a decision.

Tony Nelson WBD Jon Gingrich

Final Score:16-15 PSU

Alrighty, so I like PSU here, bonus points are on their side (though I only predicted one) as well as a larger room for error. I predicted 5-5 in terms of matches, but I really believe 33, 57 could go PSU’s way (heck maybe even 97). By the same token I suppose 41 could go Minnesota’s way.

Here’s my order of confidence in each match winner from most confident to least.

David Taylor
Nico Megaludis
Tony Nelson
Ed Ruth
Nick Dardanes
Zain Retherford
David Thorn
Scott Schiller
Matt Brown
Dylan Ness