CP's Superdual Breakdown-Iowa v. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State v. Iowa Superdual
The Cowboys will travel Carver Hawkeye Arena this Friday to renew their rivalry with Iowa. This dual always yields excitement, upsets and a snapshot for the future. Oklahoma State is coming off a very impressive Southern Scuffle where they surprised many when they took the runner up spot over Minnesota. Titles from Alex Dieringer at 157 and Chris Perry at 174 helped to ensure the 2nd position for the Cowboys.
Meanwhile, Iowa just had a record setting performance at Midlands where they broke the tournaments scoring record. That being said, the Hawkeyes had some setbacks and questions arise. Gilman out-places Clark. Ramos gets dominated by Colon and Telford fell to a True Freshman Adam Coon. Like always this dual will come down to a few key matchups and maybe an upset.
I'll break it down with some insight and predictions and let you know how I see this dual playing out.
#5 Thomas Gilman-Iowa v. Eddie Klimara-Oklahoma State
This will be the 4th time these two have squared off in college. Gilman has won each match, but never by more than 3 points. If the Hawkeyes are hoping for more than just a win here, they'll probably be disappointed. In Klimara's career he's only been defeated by bonus on one occasion and that was by Nahshon Garrett. He's just a tough guy to score on. For a guy like Gilman who really has to work for points, I don't see the bonus in the cards.
I would be fairly surprised to see Clark here, but I would predict a similar result. The fact is Gilman has simply been better this year. I didn't think that'd be the case, but I think it's clear he's the better guy down to weight. Despite the fact that Clark has a 4-0 win over Gilman. I've been impressed with Gilman's ability to get to legs more this year. He's always been stalwart defensively, but now we are seeing him utilize his holds into attacks. Another improvement we've seen is his riding. He does just enough on top to avoid giving up the stall call. Don't expect that trend to change at Carver Hawkeye.
Gilman wins with little issue by a few here.
Thomas Gilman WBD Eddie Klimara
#3 Tony Ramos-Iowa v. #5 Jon Morrison-Oklahoma State
First of a few big ones here. Morrison comes in undefeated and looking as solid as ever. Even though Oklahoma State has wrestled a very tough schedule (non conference dual with Minnesota, Bedlam and Scuffle) he's yet to face a top flight guy all year. Scuffle was down at his weight as much of the top talent was at Midlands this year. So he's the #5 guy for now.
Jon has improved on the areas he was already proficient. He's got a great double, great re-shot and is fairly solid on the mat. He hasn't had the conditioning issues we saw when he was a 125 pounder either.
Meanwhile it's been a season of surprises from Tony Ramos. He's fallen to both AJ Schopp in the Edinboro dual and was dominated by UNI's Joe Colon. Coming into this year, I figured an undefeated season for Tony was in the works. That's not been the case so far. I've never seen him physically dominated like he was by Colon. When he lost to Stieber in the past, he was picked apart technically and was ridden. Colon was overwhelming and had Ramos off his game. The size/length difference was noticeable and the way he moved Tony around was like nothing I'd seen against Ramos.
All that being said, I like Ramos tight here. He's 2-0 against Morrison and this rivalry actually goes back to their high school days (where Ramos won as well). It's probably a 1 takedown match barring some Carver Hawkeye madness(which can never be discounted).
Tony Ramos WBD Jon Morrison
#11 Josh Dziewa-Iowa v. #16 Anthony Collica-Oklahoma State
Really big match here and the first real toss up in my mind. Collica has been stellar as a Freshman and showed some real stones when in his first collegiate match (Bedlam) he stormed back for a win over Nick Lester.
Collica is a great fit at Oklahoma State. He has a variety of attacks he likes to use, single, low single and has a beautiful re-shot. The mat is not necessarily an area of strength but he is fairly solid there.
Meanwhile, Dziewa is a bit more unconventional. He will give up his legs in order to create scrambles and has some nice upper body stuff as well as a good duck under. The match will likely come down to Collica's ability to finish his own attacks and Dziewa's ability to scramble into his own scores.
The mat could be a factor here as Dziewa is solid on top, but Collica did a nice job against a very tough Lester, so I think he could be ready. However, Carver Hawkeye is a big stage for Collica. Rankings would suggest otherwise, but these two are real close. I'm going with Dziewa.
Josh Dziewa WBD Anthony Collica
#14 Brody Grothus-Iowa v. #3 Josh Kindig-Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State could really use a big performance from Kindig here and I think they'll get it. This is not a good matchup for the Hawkeyes. Grothus is coming off a break out Midlands tournament where he beat both Jason Tsirtsis and Dave habat. I'm reluctant to think Brody is better than either of those guys in a rematch, however. Grothus has an interesting style and likes to go upper body. This could be a recipe for disaster against Kindig who is excellent with upper body stuff as well and will have more horsepower than Grothus.
If Grothus goes up top, it could spell disaster for the Hawkeyes. If he stays within himself and wrestles to keep things close he can do that and keep it to a decision. Kindig has been nothing but solid all year beating Sako, Sakaguchi and Kendric Maple (to name a few). He's done a good job of getting to legs and always has had a great variety of attacks.
I see a pretty substantial beating that will be as lopsided as Grothus allows it to be.
Josh Kindig WMD Brody Grothus
#1 Derek St. John-Iowa v. #2 Alex Dieringer-Oklahoma State
Now we're cookin' with gas! Dieringer was a popular National Champion pick for many coming into this year and for good reason. As a Freshman he pushed DSJ to the brink and wrestled back for 3rd. However, I haven't been terribly impressed with Dieringer's growth this year. He stumbled across the finish line against an upset minded Realbuto and needed TB1 to beat Ian Miller. If Dieringer had been coming in red hot, I may have been inclined to consider the upset.
This match is not a toss up, not this weekend at least.
Derek St. John is the favorite, and he's my pick to win. Let's look at the facts: DSJ is 2-0 against Dieringer. DSJ will be at home. Dieringer looked solid but not spectacular at the Scuffle. Obviously, if you think Dieringer can win, who could blame you? I just don't see the information available lining up with that opinion right now.
DSJ has been very much the same guy he's always been. He wins controlled matches and is tremendous in scrambles. Last year in the NCAA semi's time and time again we saw Dieringer able to kick out of DSJ's sweep. DSJ had the angle and great penetration and Dieringer would just be able to kick out and square up. I expect DSJ to have an answer for that this time around. The mat probably won't become much of a factor here as typically DSJ has struggled to ride Dieringer, and many people struggle to ride DSJ.
That being said this one comes down to the wire, a rt point, 1 takedown or tie breakers will be the difference. Both of these guys are very hard to score on.
Derek St. John WBD Alex Dieringer
#5 Nick Moore-Iowa v. #2 Tyler Caldwell-Oklahoma State
There's not too much to say here, honestly. We pretty much know exactly who each guy is. Tyler Caldwell is one of the hardest guys to take down in the country. He rarely breaks position and uses his ridiculous strength to keep elite neutral wrestlers at bay. Ask Nick Sulzer and David Taylor how easy he is to take down.
Caldwell does not shoot often, but he's good for one takedown or so a match by and large. Nick Moore does not have the offense to take him down, he does not have the top game to ride him. To be fair to Moore, he's had a great season so far with his only losses coming from David Taylor and Steven Monk (whom he nearly beat). However, Caldwell wins by a point or two. A takedown or RT point will be the difference. This was a 1 point match a year ago with Caldwell the 3-2 winner. Don't expect too many fireworks here.
Tyler Caldwell WBD Nick Moore
This one was as tight as can be a year ago!
#6 Mike Evans-Iowa v. #2 Chris Perry-Oklahoma State
Similar to the last match, I feel there's a pretty simple conclusion to be reached: Chris Perry is just better than Mike Evans. I have been beyond impressed with Perry's improvement this year. He is more offensive, taking more shots and is even more dominant on top than before. Watching him dominate Logan Storley in their dual was an eye opening moment for me. Then he follows it up with a dominant win over Matt Brown at the Scuffle. All the momentum and skill is on the side of Chris Perry.
Mike Evans is very much the same guy he's always been. He can ride you if you are not an elite guy, but if you're upper echelon, you get away. He will struggle to take you down as his attacks often can lack good set ups. Evans wants to stand and push and wear you out and maybe force you into a bad shot. Perry is perhaps the most cerebral and tactical wrestler in all of D1 wrestling right now. Barring some sort of Carver Hawkeye magical moment, I don't see this resembling a close match. Perry won't blow him out score-wise but he is the better guy in all 3 positions. It will take a Herculean effort from Evans to get this win.
Chris Perry WBD Mike Evans
#4 Ethen Lofthouse-Iowa v. #17 Nolan Boyd-Oklahoma State
The room was rife with 184 options for the Cowboys: Blue Chipper Jordan Rogers and Kyle Crutchmer. However, Nolan Boyd the Oklahoma native and somewhat unheralded recruit has come from obscurity to take the starting job for the Cowboys. He brings a combination of grit, size and strength that I think suits the Cowboys well for now and the future.
He'll have a tough task with Ethen Lofthouse, who is in his senior season and is seeking his third All American finish. Lofthouse has been very solid this year, but hasn't faced much elite competition. He fell to Ruth and beat Ophir Bernstein and Nikko Reyes before falling close to Jimmy Sheptock.
Boyd has notched some good wins himself beating Ben Stroh, Matt McCutcheon, Rogers, Wes Phipps and Blake Stauffer. He did lose a head scratcher to Kasper, however. I think this is a fairly close match, but don't see Boyd able to string together enough consistent offense to get the win. I like Ethen by a point or 2 here.
Ethen Lofthouse WBD Nolan Boyd
#16 Nathan Burak-Iowa v. #12 Blake Rosholt-Oklahoma State
Here's another tight one. The Hawkeyes pulled Buraks Redshirt last week in dual action where he fell to Braden Atwood and beat Nick McDiarmid. Neither guy is coming into this match with much momentum on their side.
Rosholt is who he is at this point. He did fine at the Scuffle, losing only to Cox and Schiller and beating Mattiace. However, he hasn't shown signs of building much off of his All American finish last year when we saw him beat Kyven Gadson and Christian Boley. Some of Blake's struggles are a result of a tough schedule. Yes he has 6 losses, but they're to Scott Schiller (twice), J'den Cox (twice), Travis Rutt and Shane Woods. Yeah the Woods loss stands out, but that's really his only bad loss (and Woods is solid) in a season where he's beaten a very tough Nick Bonaccorsi, Jace Bennett and Frank Mattiace.
Burak has fallen to Boley (who Rosholt has beaten) and the aforementioned Atwood this year. Combine that with the fact that Rosholt was a 3-2 winner a year ago, he's nothing if not the favorite coming into this match. Rosholt has beaten better guys historically and this year, and their losses are probably comparable.
If you look at who the guys have wrestled, and don't get bogged down in records(which yield very little information), the information aligns clearly with Rosholt being a narrow winner here.
It's going to be close, but give me Blake.
Blake Rosholt WBD Nathan Burak
#3 Bobby Telford-Iowa v. #15 Austin Marsden-Oklahoma State
So it comes down to the big boys. I came into this season really high on Austin Marsden. He was in a great training situation, and looked great this Spring wrestling freestyle. I thought he had the tools to jump levels and be a top 6-10 guy this year. So far, I was off. He's more/less the same guy. He beats who he should beat: Stolfi, Tasser, etc. However, he loses to guys I once thought he would beat: Ross Larson, Jimmy Lawson, Jeremy Johnson. Those losses show me he's not there yet. He can keep it close with anyone as his 4 losses are by a combined 5 points. He hasn't shown the offense I thought we'd see from him coming into this year. He had a nice double he liked to shoot, but this year it's been a rare sight.
Enter Bobby Telford. He's having a fine season, still very much the same guy: great on top, hard to score on, good at finishing shots when he takes them. Telford nearly had the Midlands title in his grasp when Adam Coon found a way to get out of a situation that you rarely see guys get out of.
The Coon loss (which Adam seems to be a fan of distributing) is the only loss on the year for Telford who has beaten the very tough JT Felix, Mike McClure and Jimmy Lawson this year (albeit narrowly). I don't see much hope for Marsden here. I don't know how he scores on Bobby apart from a possible escape. I think Telford takes this one by a point or 2 and seals the dual for the Hawkeyes.
Bobby Telford WBD Austin Marsden
Watch this Marsden match and tell me I was crazy for thinking he'd have a big year! So there you have it, the Hawkeyes leave the Oklahoma State dual with a win. The Cowboys have been particularly pesky historically for the Hawkeyes, even at Carver Hawkeye. All it takes is the Cowboys winning one match I have them losing (looking especially to Collica and Dieringer) and the dual is theirs.
Here's my rank for the matches I'm most sure about the outcome(win or loss) to the least.
Josh Kindig over Brody Grothus
Thomas Gilman over Eddie Klimara
Bobby Telford over Austin Marsden
Tyler Caldwell over Nick Moore
Ethen Lofthouse over Nolan Boyd
Chris Perry over Mike Evans
Tony Ramos over Jon Morrison
Josh Dziewa over Anthony Collica
Derek St. John over Alex Dieringer
Blake Rosholt over Nathan Burak
Be sure to tune in LIVE on the Big 10 Digital Network!