FI - PSU Preview: The Team To Beat in March
FI - PSU Preview: The Team To Beat in March
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FI - PSU Preview: The Team To Beat in March
Christian Pyles, College Analyst
This is the first in a series of preseason FloInsider college previews. My goal for these previews is to accomplish a few things:
1. I’d like to offer some sort of preview of the tentative starting lineup, where I will outline the potential wrestle off battles (for applicable weights).
2. I’d like to offer some sort of A) Technical/stylistic profile of what each wrestler brings to the table and B) What potential finish they could have at the end of the year.
3. Like with the individual wrestler, I also hope to provide some sort of prediction for a final team placement.
I hope to provide something for both fans of the team and casual followers. These will be partially fact (records, key wins/losses, etc.) and partially opinion (stengths/weaknesses, potential placement, etc.). My goal for these is also to provide a level of insight that maybe even a dedicated fan(someone who follows a team very closely) can still glean something(even if it’s only an opinion). My opinions and evaluations of guys could vary from wrestler to wrestler based on how much I’ve seen of each guy. I’ve watched more Nico Megaludis than Zach Beitz. The write up will reflect that.
We begin this series with the defending champs. Penn State is looking for their 4th straight in 5 years under Cael Sanderson. Since Cael has moved to Happy Valley we have seen all his plans come to fruition. He’s landed phenomenal recruits (and is perhaps in the midst of his best recruiting class yet), developed talent well, and looked to have fun while doing it.
I said in my 10 Burning Questions article that I thought this could be their best (or at least the most talent-laden) squad Cael has put out. It will be a tough job for them to outscore their 2012 squad, but I think this team has the capabilities.
125
Nico Megaludis-BabyFlo, Megalion, whatever you call him I like watching this guy wrestle. Two years in, he’s got two finals appearances to his name. Year 1 was probably the most surprising finalist I’d seen since Ryan Williams (Old Dominion) crashed the finals against J Jaggers (remember when J cradled the entire bracket it seemed?). I think Nico is an extremely driven wrestler who works hard at his craft. Coming into last year I thought Nico really needed to develop more leg attacks if he wanted to even duplicate his previous years placement. We saw him develop and use both a low single and a sweep extremely effectively. His low single is unique (in my mind anyways) in that he attacks the ankle with the opposite hand compared to a traditional (John Smith) low single where the outside hand hits the ankle with your head inside the knee. If that was as confusing for you to read as it was for me to write, I’d say go ahead and just look up some of Nico’s matches. He hits it on Delgado in the NCAA finals (doesn’t finish).
Getting to legs was a point of emphasis coming into last year for Megaludis. Coming into this year I think he needs to become more prolific at finishing. He is rarely ridden, has a great motor, and tremendous speed to go along with deceptive strength. His motion is excellent from space, utilizing fakes to get to guys legs. He can brawl from in close and is especially comfortable using a front headlock.
Last year Delgado and Nico split 2-2 (Delgado winning both post season matches). Megaludis adjusted extremely well from Big 10s keeping Delgado off of his legs. He got outscrambled a bit by Delgado in the finals and it cost him. I think Nico will finish in the 1-4 range. His losses last year were to McDonough, Delgado and Anthony Zanetta (cue the “One of these things is not like the other” song).
Jokes aside, Zanetta has notched some serious wins prior, including two wins over Alan Waters. I’d love to see him tangle with Nahshon Garrett(Cornell) and Cory Clark(Iowa). Those two will be in the mix this year, and I think could present a challenge for Nico. Beyond those two and Delgado, I think we won’t see Nico challenged (Don’t see Zanetta knocking him off again). I like Nico to be fueled to a new level this year and ultimately win it all. It has definitely crossed my mind that it is completely possible for Nico to be a 4 time 2nd placer. That being said, I don’t think he’s that dude. I like him to get at least one title. Why not this year?
133
Jimmy Gulibon-I love Jimmy as a prospect this year. The 4 time PA champ (kinda hard to do) will make his Nittany Lion debut this year. While Jordan Conaway is a capable guy at this point, the upside is all Gulibon. I think Jimmy wins the wrestle off with no issue.
While Jimmy should be the clear starter, and a clear improvement over Conaway, don’t believe that to be indicative of more points at NCAA’s for the 133 spot compared with last year. It is very reasonable for Jimmy to finish in the round of 12 this year and not have underachieved. It’s a very deep weight with a lot of comparable talent from about 6 on. That being said he could wind up somewhere in the 6-8 spot just as well.
I think Jimmy brings a lot to the table technically. He will be able to attack legs and get to legs consistently. He is aggressive and always looking to score. He has good motion and level changes on his feet that helps him get to legs. Jimmy likes to get inside control and is very good at getting the head under his chest where he goes into hustle-mode, looking for an angle to either go behind or get to the leg. He’s really impressive here. He shoots both a high crotch and a head inside very regularly. He has a nice short offense when he can get to it, but at times struggles to keep guys off his legs. Once guys get on his legs they tend to get in deep and Jimmy has difficulty preventing the takedown. Shot defense would be his biggest weakness relatively. He handfights well, but sometimes his head/hands defense gets blown right through and guys get in deep on shots. As he acclimates to D1 and gets used to the elite strength/speed combos that many of his opponents posses, Jimmy will find more consistent success. Jimmy is rarely able to extend with scrambles once guys get in on his legs. Jimmy has shown he can go to his back at times getting caught out of position or sometimes when he’s over-aggressive.
Jimmy is fairly tough on top, able to turn and and tilt very well. This skill will only be accentuated as he remains in the PSU room, a team that is prolific at securing wrists as well as turning with tilts. On bottom it is tough to say where Jimmy will stack up. In most matches I’ve seen he hasn’t had much issue getting away. The competition level will be increased from high school (though he was absolutely battle tested in high school), and I can see there being an adjustment period and him getting ridden by some of the better riders in D1. This was a tough area to evaluate.
Overall I think Jimmy is going to have a fine season. I’m trying to not compare him to Megaludis, but I think there will be some Freshman parallels. They will take their lumps early, but look for them to avenge some losses come March. Don’t take this as a prediction for a finals trip for Jimmy’s first year. Instead, think about the losses Megaludis took and the gradual improvements we saw as he developed his first year culminating with a strong NCAA tournament.
141
This weight is the first of two weights that I believe the Nittany Lions will struggle with (relatively speaking). Coming into the fold they have Cadet World Champ Zain Retherford. Zain will be a True Freshman this season and a small one at that. I love Zain’s attitude and grit, and he might actually be the best guy here for PSU. In my opinion to wrestle Zain would be a mistake. PSU has such an embarrassment of riches this year top to bottom, they can put Zach Beitz out there and have comparable production(the difference between the two at NCAA’s would maybe be a match). Watching Retherford this year compete at 66kg he looked like a 33 lber. He was successful and did well, but 141’s are just huge at NCAA’s. Stieber, Maple, Carter are skilled guys who will physically overpower Zain. Ask yourself, which year would you rather have Zain Retherford for? His True Freshman year, or his 5th year? He’s going to be an animal, let him out of his cage next year.
So that brings us to Zach Beitz. Beitz is solid, and I think has a great shot at qualifying and could potentially win a match or two. It is possibly conceivable that Beitz could actually beat Retherford right now with his length and experience. Beitz is a lanky guy who is somewhat predictable on his feet. Likes to collar right and either sweep left or ankle pick left. He is not especially fluid or quick when he moves on his feet. He is quite limited with his set ups and will frequently take shots with a poor set up/work the exact same set up and attack which leads to him becoming extended because he shoots with his head down so often. Despite all this Zach can get in deep on shots, especially his single. Unfortunately, once he’s in he can be out-horsed by guys hips and have a once solid looking attack become advantageous for his opponent.
Defensively Zach seems to prefer countering leg attacks with scrambling as opposed to traditional head/hands/hips defense. I think this is going to be problematic ultimately when he faces ranked opponents. His scrambling is basic and used mostly for getting a stalemate than his own offense. He is able to hold guys off at times, but they get in so frequently it becomes a numbers game. The more guys get in, the more likely he is to be taken down. It’s possible his scrambling and overall defense will be corrected but wrestlers are who they are and I think this could be a tough habit to break.
Zach seems to like top, but does not have the quality breakdowns to get guys into nearfall situations. He likes cradles, which seems logical given his length. It’s tough to say how he will do underneath, but I didn’t get the impression it would be a relative weakness based on what I saw.
So it seems like I’m painting a grim picture, but this is just my honest assessment of the film I’ve seen on Zach. I think he’s absolutely good enough to beat some tough guys this year. If he’s put in the work necessary, he can out-wrestle my prediction and add to the riches PSU already has in abundance. A few wins at NCAA’s seems likely. Last year none of his losses were terrible, mostly to ranked/rankable guys. His best win was definitely Zach Horan of CMU at the end of the year which would suggest he was turning it around, but he finished his season with a loss to Sam Hanau (also ironically of CMU) who I’ve never actually heard of before I read his name.
149
It’s possible for a while we could see a James English for a little while here as Andrew Alton recovers from surgery. English could absolutely start for a number of D1 teams. He is very solid, and he did a great job filling in for Alton last year at the Southern Scuffle (a tournament that had the 1,2 and 3 teams in the country in attendance). He ironically was able to beat Drake Houdashelt last year, the very guy who knocked off Alton in round 1 of NCAA’s later that year. So he will be a quality guy for PSU as Alton prepares to return.
Andrew Alton announced himself when he hit the fake duck/headlock on Stephen Dutton against Lehigh (I watched it LIVE on FLO during the Big Live Dual). The future looked bright. Alton was electric, getting falls at an unprecedented rate. One of the many things that make Alton unique is the fact that he is a prolific pinner, yet really is indifferent from the top position. He makes his money on his feet and that’s where his falls come from primarily. He loves the chin and arm position(some people call it a cowcatcher, my coach called it a Chin and Arm) and he can take the guy to their back in two different directions from this hold. He also has a nice chin whip he can hit on guys who shoot head outside. He’s not just throws from neutral, he has a nice high crotch he favors more than any other leg attack. He also can hit some beautiful ducks that he incorporates with misdirection.
Regarding his weaknesses, he can falter at times against elite scramblers (Alton is fine, generally speaking in this area) and has always had some inconsistent gas tank problems. The reasons for the conditioning issues could be tough to put your finger on. His True Freshman year it was well documented that the haul to 141 was no small feat for Andrew. Big cuts can often correlate to lung issues. This year Andrew was dealing with some injuries during the year that could have prohibited proper training and peaking for events. There is the third possibility that Andrew simply has an inherently bad tank. Sometimes guys can work really hard, but still struggle to remain strong an entire 7 minutes. Regardless of the reasons why, we are yet to see an Alton who can mix it up for 7 minutes straight against the best guys. It would be an absolute treat to all fans of the sport to see him able to shore this weakness up and wrestle wide open for 7 minutes.
Being indifferent on the mat isn’t a big deal generally speaking. However, when that leads to bottom struggles it becomes concerning. Andrew hasn’t shown the ability to get away consistently from the toughest riders out there. Bottom wrestling will be a key point of emphasis for Andrew moving forward.
Ultimately, I’m fairly high on Alton. As you can see I’m a fan of many of the things he brings to the table. It is possible that my high prognostications for Andrew are rooted more in his potential than his actual accomplishments. I don’t just say that because he hasn’t placed. I say it because he really hasn’t notched elite wins in his 3 years of collegiate competition. His best wins his True Freshman year were probably Zack Kemmerer (who was a gatekeeper guy his entire career) or Tyler Nauman (who was fairly hit or miss throughout his career as well).
These are still probably his best wins to date. To my knowledge they are the only All Americans Andrew has beaten in his career. Between his consistent defeats at the hands of elite opponents, and his limited victories over upper echelon guys it is hard to predict an All American finish. Yet, here I am, predicting just that. I really think if Alton gets healthy and back to form the combination of his improvement and the overall weakness of 149 will really give him an opportunity to place. I’m reluctant to predict something much higher than a 6th place finish. I think he’s probably behind Maple(if he goes up as is rumored), Sakaguchi, and Ness. He’s probably in the Paddock, Sueflohn, Houdashelt, Grajales, Tsirtsis tier.
157
Dylan Alton results-wise had a bit of a regression from his RS Freshman season to last year, but he really didn’t suddenly become a worse wrestler, he didn’t seem to progress much either. He was a wild scramble away from the semi’s of NCAA’s and all his troubles during the year go away. Instead he loses a crazy one to Welch(whom he had beaten twice) and then Green(who he had mixed results with) to not place. I am not attempting to paint those losses as though he just had bad luck and certainly should have placed based on his regular season. I don’t believe that at all. He had losses to Napoli, Zilverberg and Demas. All solid guys, but none All Americans. He can beat and lose to a really wide range of guys. He is consistently very very close to beating Derek St. John, yet can lose to guys much less accomplished than DSJ.
Coach Sanderson tweeted that Dylan(and Andrew) had surgeries to repair Labrums. I’m assuming that this shouldn’t prohibit them too much this season. I like for Dylan to turn things around a bit and wind up on the podium. Really a finish from 2-6 is realistic, but I like him more in the 2-4 range in the mix with DSJ, Dieringer and Green.
Dylan varies a bit from twin brother Andrew. He’s a bit more conventional than Andrew.
That being said, they probably still have more stylistic similarities than differences. Dylan is a thick, strong guy with good hips and holds good position. He has a really nice underhook throw by he can hit off his opponents shot as well as a great inside reach single which is probably his go to shot.
Much like Andrew he is more/less indifferent on the mat. He probably doesn’t struggle quite to the degree from bottom, but still can be ridden by the better riders out there. His tank and pace don’t really wow you, but are far from weaknesses.
If Dylan struggles health-wise we will probably see James Vollrath again. Vollrath filled in for PSU last year and did a spectacular job culminating with a Southern Scuffle finals appearance after a win over Alex Dieringer (NCAA 3rd). PSU will be in capable hands either way at 157 but will need Alton’s experience and upside to help PSU go 4 in a row.
165
Yeah, I was the guy that ranked David Taylor ahead of Kyle Dake last year. Judge me! Though it was incorrect, I still felt my rationale was sound. It’s hard to believe we are heading into David Taylor’s final season. I hope wrestling fans take time to appreciate what DT does for the sport and the entertainment he provides. He won’t leave college the most decorated college wrestler of all time(though his accolades will be spectacular at the end of the day).
Coming into this season David sits at 101-3. That’s crazy, but not really compared to the next numbers coming your way. Of David’s 101 wins 94 are by bonus points. Of his 7 decisions the closest win was 3 points over Hatchett(who he later teched as punishment). Of his 94 bonus point wins he has 37 falls and 34 tech falls to just 23 majors. It is really uncanny, and as far as I can tell unprecedented. Is it possible that David Taylor is the most prolific bonus point scorer in the history of D1 wrestling? I would love to be able to access all the old records, but sadly locating numbers(even as far back as Ben Askren's early years) is hard to do. Consider this a challenge for someone to come up with a wrestler who was this prolific over a 4 year career. David’s rampage at NCAA’s last year was so rampant that he actually outscored Kyle Dake in team points despite Dake winning the title. That’s right, you’re better off(from strictly a points perspective) having 2nd place Taylor on your team than 1st place Dake(I’m sure he outscored other champions as well). Enough Taylor v. Dake talk for cryin’ out loud.
This year I expect we will see a season like David’s Sophomore year. He will be ultimately unchallenged and unmatched. He will compete more against himself than anyone else as he tries to continue his blistering bonus point clip. It is possible he bonuses all the way through the tournament (again). Tyler Caldwell poses the biggest threat, and he was no match for Taylor at the Scuffle. 165 will not be a great weight this year after the first two.
David’s techniques are well known, yet vast. Taylor has tremendous motion and feel from neutral, getting guys off balance and attacking before a reaction is even possible. He works great from the collar tie and gets to ankles very consistently. He shoots a high crotch as well. His re-shots(which I’m still convinced are more teleportation than any sort of wrestling technique) are absurd. He can get back on your legs lighting quick. He is a phenomenal counter wrestler when guys get on his legs. He doesn’t mind guys getting to his legs and it is more offense for him than his opponent. David will give up a takedown every now and then(pretty sure Mark Martin took him down twice this year) but it doesn’t phase him in the least. Taylor is willing to give up the occasional TD (he will probably just reverse you anyways) so that he can wrestle his high pace, high scoring style. On top he is exceptional at tilting. You watch him and you wonder why everyone doesn’t just tilt guys. It’s just not as easy as he makes it look. He can play the refs as well. He’ll sit up on guys and basically show the ref that the guys aren’t working up (IT’S A TRAP!!). When the poor souls do work up the guts to build their base he simply chops and tilts them. When they don’t work up and more/less play dead(probably the right idea) they get dinged for stalling. All according to plan. If you have to point out a weakness in Taylors game, it’s bottom. But really, he hasn’t been ridden in his career apart from the Dake matches, so I’m not sure you can call it a weakness. He’s actually awesome on bottom and he get’s an absolutely amazing amount of reversals. He is patient to the point it looks like he’s not working underneath, then all of a sudden he’s on top. All a part of the magic show.
David Taylor is going to win this weight. He will go undefeated, and I believe he’s got a great chance to win another Hodge. Teammate Ed Ruth and native Ohioan Logan Stieber may have something to say about that, but I think that Taylor's bonus point numbers will be better than Ed’s and comparable to Logan’s.
174
Matt Brown’s first year as a starter for Penn State was a great success culminating with an NCAA finals appearance. Brown avenged a number of losses last year en route to a Big 10 title and an NCAA 2nd. He’s a more traditional wrestler compared to some of the wide open styles some PSU guys employ. He beats on the head and gets to his singles and high-crotches. He’s a physical force having great power in addition to a great motor. Despite the 2nd place finish, I think 2 is probably the best we will see Matt do this year. I’ve pushed all my chips into the middle for Andrew Howe this year. Brown falls in the Perry, Storley tier with Kokesh and Evans knocking at the door.
Earlier in the year he had some moments of sloppiness due to over-aggression. This lead to defeats at the hands of Storley and Kokesh. Once he tightened up a bit and held great position, he became a real handful. Defensively we all remember his great pancake of Evans in the Big 10 finals but he also has great head/hands/hips defense. Though he can still be out-scrambled at times Brown can work to a stalemate when guys get in deep with scrambling skills of his own. He is very solid on the mat and is a capable rider, though not always able to turn. Brown is also tough to ride and rarely struggles to get away. Matt is a complete wrestler who is becoming a better match manager.
184
I’m getting all nostalgic writing about these guys. Losing Taylor and Ruth will be toughest for the PSU fans, but I think wrestling fans in general will be sad to see these guys go in their heart of hearts. Who am I kidding though? Iowa, Ok. St, Minnesota and Ohio State can’t wait for these guys to be gone (the phrase “don’t let the door hit ya on the way out” comes to mind). Ruth is coming off his 2nd undefeated season where he seems to lackadaisically pick his opponents apart. Some questioned if he could adjust up a weight. He answered the question and put an exclamation point at the end with his dismantling major-decision over Robert Hamlin.
Ruth is very unique in a number of ways on his feet. His stance is frankly a bit awkward looking and at times he looks like he’d be out of position. He’s got a great misdirection single (that Dan Gable even admitted he really didn’t understand) that he finishes at a very high rate.
When Ed get’s the mind to open it up on his feet, he’s nearly unstoppable. We saw this on full display in the NCAA finals when he put a late TD clinic on Robert Hamlin for the Major decision. His strength is so tremendous, that when he gets to your leg, he is so difficult to get out of position, you have no choice but to go down. He has exceptional defense and can let guys get in fairly deep and get his own takedown with little issue. On bottom we haven’t seen him ridden since he hurt his knee against Nick Amuchastegui his Freshman year. On top he’s best known for his cross face cradle series. However, he also is great with tilts as well. He has a knack for hitting a 2 on 1 tilt when guys stand up and Ed still has their wrist.
At 33-0 Ed notched 27 bonus point wins with 12 falls, 5 techs and 10 majors. Our jaws would drop had we not been witnesses to the seasons Taylor and Stieber just had. He’s still a prolific scorer and a virtual lock to win the title. Steinhaus and Sheptock are the two guys remaining that have troubled Ed the most. By that I mean, Ed didn’t bonus them. I like another undefeated season for Ed(3 in a row) which has to enter him close to some of the top all time discussions with only 2 career losses to his name.
197
Morgan McIntosh looks to be the man here for Cael Sanderson coming off a solid redshirt season. He looks to have put on some muscle and while he will never be a bigger 197, he appears to have taken steps to prevent his size from being a negative against other 197s. He stayed active during the Freestyle season and had about as impressive a loss as I’ve seen when he wrestled Dustin Kilgore in Freestyle. Morgan has a variety of attacks he uses including ankle picks, double and a sweep. He’s a skilled scrambler and has very solid short offense. Guys with length and strength could potentially frustrate Morgan and prevent him from getting his leg attacks off. He works hard on bottom but is not impervious to being ridden. He will need to do a better job of getting hip separation and hand control against the better guys in order to really rise to the level I’m predicting him at. He does have a somewhat distressing habit of late match lapses. We saw it against Yohn in the PSU Minnesota dual and again at Big 10’s against Powless(I believe). I think this can mostly be attributed to first year jitters, but it is still something to keep your eye on.
He’s on par with the best in this weight and I think he has a legitimate chance of winning it all. With the departure of Quentin Wright (PSU), Kilgore (Kent State) and Wilps (Pitt) from this weight it enables a guy like Morgan to enter that title conversation. He’s right in the mix with the Meeks, Gadson, Schiller type of guys at 197. He had a pretty decisive win over Meeks 2 years ago (11-6). I’ll concede that Meeks has made some great improvements, but I think similar can be said about Morgan as well. He does have a loss at the hands of Schiller from his True Freshman season. So I think he falls somewhere in the top 5 or 6 with number 1 potential.
285
The story at 285 will be similar to last year as far as I can tell for the Nittany Lions. I mentioned earlier that I was a bit confused by Coach Sanderson’s choice to go with Jimmy Lawson over Jon Gingrich. Certainly the eyeball test would make you want to consider Lawson who is a tremendous physical specimen. Gingrich is a more slight heavyweight, but has a nice build himself. Considering the two split their wrestle off, you would think that the nod would go to the wrestler producing at a higher level. Gingrich last year notched a major over Odie Delaney, and additional wins over Adam Chalfant and Mike McClure. Lawson was able to beat Delaney by decision but also lost to McClure. Neither had a bad loss on their resume, but Gingrich seemed to be able to beat better guys, consistently. Maybe there was something Coach Sanderson saw in the room, maybe Gingrich got dinged up. There could be reasons unknown for his decision but from an outsiders perspective, it was confusing to me. I know I said much of this in the 10 burning questions article, but it still is true, and it’s still confusing me. Moving on..
Gingrich is not a stunning watch from a spectators point of view. From neutral likes to stand up pull on the head very consistently where he looks for more likely than not a double leg. He shoots this pretty consistently but can get caught with his head down from time to time. He also can make himself vulnerable to re-shots from his double. More recently it looks like he had also developed an ankle pick as well(where he would learn such a thing at Penn State, I really have no idea). On top he doesn’t look to turn as much as he likes to tie up your wrists and rack up riding time.
Lawson is not Mr. Electricity in his own right either. He likes to head tap, fake, head tap, shoot from space, but he also has a pretty solid single leg as well. In high school I remember him being a fairly effective leg rider. Thus far that has not appeared to be successful against the better guys. No question if you are taking either guy in a vacuum and looking for high production, you’re taking Lawson. However, Gingrich to this point seems like the better guy. Perhaps last year was Lawson shaking off the rust that comes with being off the mat for an extended period of time. With that, we could see a better Lawson.
Heavy has really thinned out(couldn’t resist) considerably with the loss of Gelogaev, Bradley, Thomusseit, Trice, Hanke, Delane and Gibson. With only one notable stud entering the fold who wasn't there last year( Gwiazdowski) it makes the potential points and All American placements more of a possibility for whichever heavyweight Coach Sanderson chooses. Based on what I’ve seen of these two, I see them falling in the round of 12 if not one round earlier depending(as always) on their draw. Obviously, I like Gingrich as a guy with better potential to place than Lawson. I’m reluctant to predict that Jon gets the nod, however.
Summary:
PSU is going to be excellent this year. Possibly Cael’s best squad if it all comes together. This team is only as good as their NCAA tournament, however. That being said this team has the largest margin for error. Having Taylor and Ruth can erase/negate many of the hardships a team could endure during a tournament as tough as NCAA’s. For all you football fans out there, think about how Tom Brady is able to get New England to play at such a high level, despite being completely lacking in offensive personnel. Well PSU has two Tom Brady’s. Ok, this analogy has gone completely haywire, but I love Tom Brady and you should too! The point is, things can go wrong and the Ruth/DT combo will make it alright. Enjoy this year PSU fans. Things tighten up next year. They have to.
Christian Pyles, College Analyst
This is the first in a series of preseason FloInsider college previews. My goal for these previews is to accomplish a few things:
1. I’d like to offer some sort of preview of the tentative starting lineup, where I will outline the potential wrestle off battles (for applicable weights).
2. I’d like to offer some sort of A) Technical/stylistic profile of what each wrestler brings to the table and B) What potential finish they could have at the end of the year.
3. Like with the individual wrestler, I also hope to provide some sort of prediction for a final team placement.
I hope to provide something for both fans of the team and casual followers. These will be partially fact (records, key wins/losses, etc.) and partially opinion (stengths/weaknesses, potential placement, etc.). My goal for these is also to provide a level of insight that maybe even a dedicated fan(someone who follows a team very closely) can still glean something(even if it’s only an opinion). My opinions and evaluations of guys could vary from wrestler to wrestler based on how much I’ve seen of each guy. I’ve watched more Nico Megaludis than Zach Beitz. The write up will reflect that.
We begin this series with the defending champs. Penn State is looking for their 4th straight in 5 years under Cael Sanderson. Since Cael has moved to Happy Valley we have seen all his plans come to fruition. He’s landed phenomenal recruits (and is perhaps in the midst of his best recruiting class yet), developed talent well, and looked to have fun while doing it.
I said in my 10 Burning Questions article that I thought this could be their best (or at least the most talent-laden) squad Cael has put out. It will be a tough job for them to outscore their 2012 squad, but I think this team has the capabilities.
125
Nico Megaludis-BabyFlo, Megalion, whatever you call him I like watching this guy wrestle. Two years in, he’s got two finals appearances to his name. Year 1 was probably the most surprising finalist I’d seen since Ryan Williams (Old Dominion) crashed the finals against J Jaggers (remember when J cradled the entire bracket it seemed?). I think Nico is an extremely driven wrestler who works hard at his craft. Coming into last year I thought Nico really needed to develop more leg attacks if he wanted to even duplicate his previous years placement. We saw him develop and use both a low single and a sweep extremely effectively. His low single is unique (in my mind anyways) in that he attacks the ankle with the opposite hand compared to a traditional (John Smith) low single where the outside hand hits the ankle with your head inside the knee. If that was as confusing for you to read as it was for me to write, I’d say go ahead and just look up some of Nico’s matches. He hits it on Delgado in the NCAA finals (doesn’t finish).
Getting to legs was a point of emphasis coming into last year for Megaludis. Coming into this year I think he needs to become more prolific at finishing. He is rarely ridden, has a great motor, and tremendous speed to go along with deceptive strength. His motion is excellent from space, utilizing fakes to get to guys legs. He can brawl from in close and is especially comfortable using a front headlock.
Last year Delgado and Nico split 2-2 (Delgado winning both post season matches). Megaludis adjusted extremely well from Big 10s keeping Delgado off of his legs. He got outscrambled a bit by Delgado in the finals and it cost him. I think Nico will finish in the 1-4 range. His losses last year were to McDonough, Delgado and Anthony Zanetta (cue the “One of these things is not like the other” song).
Jokes aside, Zanetta has notched some serious wins prior, including two wins over Alan Waters. I’d love to see him tangle with Nahshon Garrett(Cornell) and Cory Clark(Iowa). Those two will be in the mix this year, and I think could present a challenge for Nico. Beyond those two and Delgado, I think we won’t see Nico challenged (Don’t see Zanetta knocking him off again). I like Nico to be fueled to a new level this year and ultimately win it all. It has definitely crossed my mind that it is completely possible for Nico to be a 4 time 2nd placer. That being said, I don’t think he’s that dude. I like him to get at least one title. Why not this year?
133
Jimmy Gulibon-I love Jimmy as a prospect this year. The 4 time PA champ (kinda hard to do) will make his Nittany Lion debut this year. While Jordan Conaway is a capable guy at this point, the upside is all Gulibon. I think Jimmy wins the wrestle off with no issue.
While Jimmy should be the clear starter, and a clear improvement over Conaway, don’t believe that to be indicative of more points at NCAA’s for the 133 spot compared with last year. It is very reasonable for Jimmy to finish in the round of 12 this year and not have underachieved. It’s a very deep weight with a lot of comparable talent from about 6 on. That being said he could wind up somewhere in the 6-8 spot just as well.
I think Jimmy brings a lot to the table technically. He will be able to attack legs and get to legs consistently. He is aggressive and always looking to score. He has good motion and level changes on his feet that helps him get to legs. Jimmy likes to get inside control and is very good at getting the head under his chest where he goes into hustle-mode, looking for an angle to either go behind or get to the leg. He’s really impressive here. He shoots both a high crotch and a head inside very regularly. He has a nice short offense when he can get to it, but at times struggles to keep guys off his legs. Once guys get on his legs they tend to get in deep and Jimmy has difficulty preventing the takedown. Shot defense would be his biggest weakness relatively. He handfights well, but sometimes his head/hands defense gets blown right through and guys get in deep on shots. As he acclimates to D1 and gets used to the elite strength/speed combos that many of his opponents posses, Jimmy will find more consistent success. Jimmy is rarely able to extend with scrambles once guys get in on his legs. Jimmy has shown he can go to his back at times getting caught out of position or sometimes when he’s over-aggressive.
Jimmy is fairly tough on top, able to turn and and tilt very well. This skill will only be accentuated as he remains in the PSU room, a team that is prolific at securing wrists as well as turning with tilts. On bottom it is tough to say where Jimmy will stack up. In most matches I’ve seen he hasn’t had much issue getting away. The competition level will be increased from high school (though he was absolutely battle tested in high school), and I can see there being an adjustment period and him getting ridden by some of the better riders in D1. This was a tough area to evaluate.
Overall I think Jimmy is going to have a fine season. I’m trying to not compare him to Megaludis, but I think there will be some Freshman parallels. They will take their lumps early, but look for them to avenge some losses come March. Don’t take this as a prediction for a finals trip for Jimmy’s first year. Instead, think about the losses Megaludis took and the gradual improvements we saw as he developed his first year culminating with a strong NCAA tournament.
141
This weight is the first of two weights that I believe the Nittany Lions will struggle with (relatively speaking). Coming into the fold they have Cadet World Champ Zain Retherford. Zain will be a True Freshman this season and a small one at that. I love Zain’s attitude and grit, and he might actually be the best guy here for PSU. In my opinion to wrestle Zain would be a mistake. PSU has such an embarrassment of riches this year top to bottom, they can put Zach Beitz out there and have comparable production(the difference between the two at NCAA’s would maybe be a match). Watching Retherford this year compete at 66kg he looked like a 33 lber. He was successful and did well, but 141’s are just huge at NCAA’s. Stieber, Maple, Carter are skilled guys who will physically overpower Zain. Ask yourself, which year would you rather have Zain Retherford for? His True Freshman year, or his 5th year? He’s going to be an animal, let him out of his cage next year.
So that brings us to Zach Beitz. Beitz is solid, and I think has a great shot at qualifying and could potentially win a match or two. It is possibly conceivable that Beitz could actually beat Retherford right now with his length and experience. Beitz is a lanky guy who is somewhat predictable on his feet. Likes to collar right and either sweep left or ankle pick left. He is not especially fluid or quick when he moves on his feet. He is quite limited with his set ups and will frequently take shots with a poor set up/work the exact same set up and attack which leads to him becoming extended because he shoots with his head down so often. Despite all this Zach can get in deep on shots, especially his single. Unfortunately, once he’s in he can be out-horsed by guys hips and have a once solid looking attack become advantageous for his opponent.
Defensively Zach seems to prefer countering leg attacks with scrambling as opposed to traditional head/hands/hips defense. I think this is going to be problematic ultimately when he faces ranked opponents. His scrambling is basic and used mostly for getting a stalemate than his own offense. He is able to hold guys off at times, but they get in so frequently it becomes a numbers game. The more guys get in, the more likely he is to be taken down. It’s possible his scrambling and overall defense will be corrected but wrestlers are who they are and I think this could be a tough habit to break.
Zach seems to like top, but does not have the quality breakdowns to get guys into nearfall situations. He likes cradles, which seems logical given his length. It’s tough to say how he will do underneath, but I didn’t get the impression it would be a relative weakness based on what I saw.
So it seems like I’m painting a grim picture, but this is just my honest assessment of the film I’ve seen on Zach. I think he’s absolutely good enough to beat some tough guys this year. If he’s put in the work necessary, he can out-wrestle my prediction and add to the riches PSU already has in abundance. A few wins at NCAA’s seems likely. Last year none of his losses were terrible, mostly to ranked/rankable guys. His best win was definitely Zach Horan of CMU at the end of the year which would suggest he was turning it around, but he finished his season with a loss to Sam Hanau (also ironically of CMU) who I’ve never actually heard of before I read his name.
149
It’s possible for a while we could see a James English for a little while here as Andrew Alton recovers from surgery. English could absolutely start for a number of D1 teams. He is very solid, and he did a great job filling in for Alton last year at the Southern Scuffle (a tournament that had the 1,2 and 3 teams in the country in attendance). He ironically was able to beat Drake Houdashelt last year, the very guy who knocked off Alton in round 1 of NCAA’s later that year. So he will be a quality guy for PSU as Alton prepares to return.
Andrew Alton announced himself when he hit the fake duck/headlock on Stephen Dutton against Lehigh (I watched it LIVE on FLO during the Big Live Dual). The future looked bright. Alton was electric, getting falls at an unprecedented rate. One of the many things that make Alton unique is the fact that he is a prolific pinner, yet really is indifferent from the top position. He makes his money on his feet and that’s where his falls come from primarily. He loves the chin and arm position(some people call it a cowcatcher, my coach called it a Chin and Arm) and he can take the guy to their back in two different directions from this hold. He also has a nice chin whip he can hit on guys who shoot head outside. He’s not just throws from neutral, he has a nice high crotch he favors more than any other leg attack. He also can hit some beautiful ducks that he incorporates with misdirection.
Regarding his weaknesses, he can falter at times against elite scramblers (Alton is fine, generally speaking in this area) and has always had some inconsistent gas tank problems. The reasons for the conditioning issues could be tough to put your finger on. His True Freshman year it was well documented that the haul to 141 was no small feat for Andrew. Big cuts can often correlate to lung issues. This year Andrew was dealing with some injuries during the year that could have prohibited proper training and peaking for events. There is the third possibility that Andrew simply has an inherently bad tank. Sometimes guys can work really hard, but still struggle to remain strong an entire 7 minutes. Regardless of the reasons why, we are yet to see an Alton who can mix it up for 7 minutes straight against the best guys. It would be an absolute treat to all fans of the sport to see him able to shore this weakness up and wrestle wide open for 7 minutes.
Being indifferent on the mat isn’t a big deal generally speaking. However, when that leads to bottom struggles it becomes concerning. Andrew hasn’t shown the ability to get away consistently from the toughest riders out there. Bottom wrestling will be a key point of emphasis for Andrew moving forward.
Ultimately, I’m fairly high on Alton. As you can see I’m a fan of many of the things he brings to the table. It is possible that my high prognostications for Andrew are rooted more in his potential than his actual accomplishments. I don’t just say that because he hasn’t placed. I say it because he really hasn’t notched elite wins in his 3 years of collegiate competition. His best wins his True Freshman year were probably Zack Kemmerer (who was a gatekeeper guy his entire career) or Tyler Nauman (who was fairly hit or miss throughout his career as well).
These are still probably his best wins to date. To my knowledge they are the only All Americans Andrew has beaten in his career. Between his consistent defeats at the hands of elite opponents, and his limited victories over upper echelon guys it is hard to predict an All American finish. Yet, here I am, predicting just that. I really think if Alton gets healthy and back to form the combination of his improvement and the overall weakness of 149 will really give him an opportunity to place. I’m reluctant to predict something much higher than a 6th place finish. I think he’s probably behind Maple(if he goes up as is rumored), Sakaguchi, and Ness. He’s probably in the Paddock, Sueflohn, Houdashelt, Grajales, Tsirtsis tier.
157
Dylan Alton results-wise had a bit of a regression from his RS Freshman season to last year, but he really didn’t suddenly become a worse wrestler, he didn’t seem to progress much either. He was a wild scramble away from the semi’s of NCAA’s and all his troubles during the year go away. Instead he loses a crazy one to Welch(whom he had beaten twice) and then Green(who he had mixed results with) to not place. I am not attempting to paint those losses as though he just had bad luck and certainly should have placed based on his regular season. I don’t believe that at all. He had losses to Napoli, Zilverberg and Demas. All solid guys, but none All Americans. He can beat and lose to a really wide range of guys. He is consistently very very close to beating Derek St. John, yet can lose to guys much less accomplished than DSJ.
Coach Sanderson tweeted that Dylan(and Andrew) had surgeries to repair Labrums. I’m assuming that this shouldn’t prohibit them too much this season. I like for Dylan to turn things around a bit and wind up on the podium. Really a finish from 2-6 is realistic, but I like him more in the 2-4 range in the mix with DSJ, Dieringer and Green.
Dylan varies a bit from twin brother Andrew. He’s a bit more conventional than Andrew.
That being said, they probably still have more stylistic similarities than differences. Dylan is a thick, strong guy with good hips and holds good position. He has a really nice underhook throw by he can hit off his opponents shot as well as a great inside reach single which is probably his go to shot.
Much like Andrew he is more/less indifferent on the mat. He probably doesn’t struggle quite to the degree from bottom, but still can be ridden by the better riders out there. His tank and pace don’t really wow you, but are far from weaknesses.
If Dylan struggles health-wise we will probably see James Vollrath again. Vollrath filled in for PSU last year and did a spectacular job culminating with a Southern Scuffle finals appearance after a win over Alex Dieringer (NCAA 3rd). PSU will be in capable hands either way at 157 but will need Alton’s experience and upside to help PSU go 4 in a row.
165
Yeah, I was the guy that ranked David Taylor ahead of Kyle Dake last year. Judge me! Though it was incorrect, I still felt my rationale was sound. It’s hard to believe we are heading into David Taylor’s final season. I hope wrestling fans take time to appreciate what DT does for the sport and the entertainment he provides. He won’t leave college the most decorated college wrestler of all time(though his accolades will be spectacular at the end of the day).
Coming into this season David sits at 101-3. That’s crazy, but not really compared to the next numbers coming your way. Of David’s 101 wins 94 are by bonus points. Of his 7 decisions the closest win was 3 points over Hatchett(who he later teched as punishment). Of his 94 bonus point wins he has 37 falls and 34 tech falls to just 23 majors. It is really uncanny, and as far as I can tell unprecedented. Is it possible that David Taylor is the most prolific bonus point scorer in the history of D1 wrestling? I would love to be able to access all the old records, but sadly locating numbers(even as far back as Ben Askren's early years) is hard to do. Consider this a challenge for someone to come up with a wrestler who was this prolific over a 4 year career. David’s rampage at NCAA’s last year was so rampant that he actually outscored Kyle Dake in team points despite Dake winning the title. That’s right, you’re better off(from strictly a points perspective) having 2nd place Taylor on your team than 1st place Dake(I’m sure he outscored other champions as well). Enough Taylor v. Dake talk for cryin’ out loud.
This year I expect we will see a season like David’s Sophomore year. He will be ultimately unchallenged and unmatched. He will compete more against himself than anyone else as he tries to continue his blistering bonus point clip. It is possible he bonuses all the way through the tournament (again). Tyler Caldwell poses the biggest threat, and he was no match for Taylor at the Scuffle. 165 will not be a great weight this year after the first two.
David’s techniques are well known, yet vast. Taylor has tremendous motion and feel from neutral, getting guys off balance and attacking before a reaction is even possible. He works great from the collar tie and gets to ankles very consistently. He shoots a high crotch as well. His re-shots(which I’m still convinced are more teleportation than any sort of wrestling technique) are absurd. He can get back on your legs lighting quick. He is a phenomenal counter wrestler when guys get on his legs. He doesn’t mind guys getting to his legs and it is more offense for him than his opponent. David will give up a takedown every now and then(pretty sure Mark Martin took him down twice this year) but it doesn’t phase him in the least. Taylor is willing to give up the occasional TD (he will probably just reverse you anyways) so that he can wrestle his high pace, high scoring style. On top he is exceptional at tilting. You watch him and you wonder why everyone doesn’t just tilt guys. It’s just not as easy as he makes it look. He can play the refs as well. He’ll sit up on guys and basically show the ref that the guys aren’t working up (IT’S A TRAP!!). When the poor souls do work up the guts to build their base he simply chops and tilts them. When they don’t work up and more/less play dead(probably the right idea) they get dinged for stalling. All according to plan. If you have to point out a weakness in Taylors game, it’s bottom. But really, he hasn’t been ridden in his career apart from the Dake matches, so I’m not sure you can call it a weakness. He’s actually awesome on bottom and he get’s an absolutely amazing amount of reversals. He is patient to the point it looks like he’s not working underneath, then all of a sudden he’s on top. All a part of the magic show.
David Taylor is going to win this weight. He will go undefeated, and I believe he’s got a great chance to win another Hodge. Teammate Ed Ruth and native Ohioan Logan Stieber may have something to say about that, but I think that Taylor's bonus point numbers will be better than Ed’s and comparable to Logan’s.
174
Matt Brown’s first year as a starter for Penn State was a great success culminating with an NCAA finals appearance. Brown avenged a number of losses last year en route to a Big 10 title and an NCAA 2nd. He’s a more traditional wrestler compared to some of the wide open styles some PSU guys employ. He beats on the head and gets to his singles and high-crotches. He’s a physical force having great power in addition to a great motor. Despite the 2nd place finish, I think 2 is probably the best we will see Matt do this year. I’ve pushed all my chips into the middle for Andrew Howe this year. Brown falls in the Perry, Storley tier with Kokesh and Evans knocking at the door.
Earlier in the year he had some moments of sloppiness due to over-aggression. This lead to defeats at the hands of Storley and Kokesh. Once he tightened up a bit and held great position, he became a real handful. Defensively we all remember his great pancake of Evans in the Big 10 finals but he also has great head/hands/hips defense. Though he can still be out-scrambled at times Brown can work to a stalemate when guys get in deep with scrambling skills of his own. He is very solid on the mat and is a capable rider, though not always able to turn. Brown is also tough to ride and rarely struggles to get away. Matt is a complete wrestler who is becoming a better match manager.
184
I’m getting all nostalgic writing about these guys. Losing Taylor and Ruth will be toughest for the PSU fans, but I think wrestling fans in general will be sad to see these guys go in their heart of hearts. Who am I kidding though? Iowa, Ok. St, Minnesota and Ohio State can’t wait for these guys to be gone (the phrase “don’t let the door hit ya on the way out” comes to mind). Ruth is coming off his 2nd undefeated season where he seems to lackadaisically pick his opponents apart. Some questioned if he could adjust up a weight. He answered the question and put an exclamation point at the end with his dismantling major-decision over Robert Hamlin.
Ruth is very unique in a number of ways on his feet. His stance is frankly a bit awkward looking and at times he looks like he’d be out of position. He’s got a great misdirection single (that Dan Gable even admitted he really didn’t understand) that he finishes at a very high rate.
When Ed get’s the mind to open it up on his feet, he’s nearly unstoppable. We saw this on full display in the NCAA finals when he put a late TD clinic on Robert Hamlin for the Major decision. His strength is so tremendous, that when he gets to your leg, he is so difficult to get out of position, you have no choice but to go down. He has exceptional defense and can let guys get in fairly deep and get his own takedown with little issue. On bottom we haven’t seen him ridden since he hurt his knee against Nick Amuchastegui his Freshman year. On top he’s best known for his cross face cradle series. However, he also is great with tilts as well. He has a knack for hitting a 2 on 1 tilt when guys stand up and Ed still has their wrist.
At 33-0 Ed notched 27 bonus point wins with 12 falls, 5 techs and 10 majors. Our jaws would drop had we not been witnesses to the seasons Taylor and Stieber just had. He’s still a prolific scorer and a virtual lock to win the title. Steinhaus and Sheptock are the two guys remaining that have troubled Ed the most. By that I mean, Ed didn’t bonus them. I like another undefeated season for Ed(3 in a row) which has to enter him close to some of the top all time discussions with only 2 career losses to his name.
197
Morgan McIntosh looks to be the man here for Cael Sanderson coming off a solid redshirt season. He looks to have put on some muscle and while he will never be a bigger 197, he appears to have taken steps to prevent his size from being a negative against other 197s. He stayed active during the Freestyle season and had about as impressive a loss as I’ve seen when he wrestled Dustin Kilgore in Freestyle. Morgan has a variety of attacks he uses including ankle picks, double and a sweep. He’s a skilled scrambler and has very solid short offense. Guys with length and strength could potentially frustrate Morgan and prevent him from getting his leg attacks off. He works hard on bottom but is not impervious to being ridden. He will need to do a better job of getting hip separation and hand control against the better guys in order to really rise to the level I’m predicting him at. He does have a somewhat distressing habit of late match lapses. We saw it against Yohn in the PSU Minnesota dual and again at Big 10’s against Powless(I believe). I think this can mostly be attributed to first year jitters, but it is still something to keep your eye on.
He’s on par with the best in this weight and I think he has a legitimate chance of winning it all. With the departure of Quentin Wright (PSU), Kilgore (Kent State) and Wilps (Pitt) from this weight it enables a guy like Morgan to enter that title conversation. He’s right in the mix with the Meeks, Gadson, Schiller type of guys at 197. He had a pretty decisive win over Meeks 2 years ago (11-6). I’ll concede that Meeks has made some great improvements, but I think similar can be said about Morgan as well. He does have a loss at the hands of Schiller from his True Freshman season. So I think he falls somewhere in the top 5 or 6 with number 1 potential.
285
The story at 285 will be similar to last year as far as I can tell for the Nittany Lions. I mentioned earlier that I was a bit confused by Coach Sanderson’s choice to go with Jimmy Lawson over Jon Gingrich. Certainly the eyeball test would make you want to consider Lawson who is a tremendous physical specimen. Gingrich is a more slight heavyweight, but has a nice build himself. Considering the two split their wrestle off, you would think that the nod would go to the wrestler producing at a higher level. Gingrich last year notched a major over Odie Delaney, and additional wins over Adam Chalfant and Mike McClure. Lawson was able to beat Delaney by decision but also lost to McClure. Neither had a bad loss on their resume, but Gingrich seemed to be able to beat better guys, consistently. Maybe there was something Coach Sanderson saw in the room, maybe Gingrich got dinged up. There could be reasons unknown for his decision but from an outsiders perspective, it was confusing to me. I know I said much of this in the 10 burning questions article, but it still is true, and it’s still confusing me. Moving on..
Gingrich is not a stunning watch from a spectators point of view. From neutral likes to stand up pull on the head very consistently where he looks for more likely than not a double leg. He shoots this pretty consistently but can get caught with his head down from time to time. He also can make himself vulnerable to re-shots from his double. More recently it looks like he had also developed an ankle pick as well(where he would learn such a thing at Penn State, I really have no idea). On top he doesn’t look to turn as much as he likes to tie up your wrists and rack up riding time.
Lawson is not Mr. Electricity in his own right either. He likes to head tap, fake, head tap, shoot from space, but he also has a pretty solid single leg as well. In high school I remember him being a fairly effective leg rider. Thus far that has not appeared to be successful against the better guys. No question if you are taking either guy in a vacuum and looking for high production, you’re taking Lawson. However, Gingrich to this point seems like the better guy. Perhaps last year was Lawson shaking off the rust that comes with being off the mat for an extended period of time. With that, we could see a better Lawson.
Heavy has really thinned out(couldn’t resist) considerably with the loss of Gelogaev, Bradley, Thomusseit, Trice, Hanke, Delane and Gibson. With only one notable stud entering the fold who wasn't there last year( Gwiazdowski) it makes the potential points and All American placements more of a possibility for whichever heavyweight Coach Sanderson chooses. Based on what I’ve seen of these two, I see them falling in the round of 12 if not one round earlier depending(as always) on their draw. Obviously, I like Gingrich as a guy with better potential to place than Lawson. I’m reluctant to predict that Jon gets the nod, however.
Summary:
PSU is going to be excellent this year. Possibly Cael’s best squad if it all comes together. This team is only as good as their NCAA tournament, however. That being said this team has the largest margin for error. Having Taylor and Ruth can erase/negate many of the hardships a team could endure during a tournament as tough as NCAA’s. For all you football fans out there, think about how Tom Brady is able to get New England to play at such a high level, despite being completely lacking in offensive personnel. Well PSU has two Tom Brady’s. Ok, this analogy has gone completely haywire, but I love Tom Brady and you should too! The point is, things can go wrong and the Ruth/DT combo will make it alright. Enjoy this year PSU fans. Things tighten up next year. They have to.